NBA DFS Analytics: May 9th


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QUICK HITTERS (5/9)

Today's main slate features 6 games. DET and OKC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v ORL at 230.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHO v LAL at 216 points.

NEED TO KNOW

I'm going to start off this 'Need to Know' section with what I think is extremely important info to consider for tonight's slate. We are approaching the NBA playoffs, and because of the new playoff format, games are becoming especially critical for NBA teams. I think this opens up some amazing opportunities to win serious $$ both on Monkey Knife Fight (which I'll get to in a second) and in DFS. When building your DFS lineups tonight, take into account which teams (and players) desperately need to win, and which teams are playing in games that have less on the line. I'll touch on this in my writing tonight, but I'm going to be targeting a number of guys playing in games with significant playoff implications. 

Garland, Nance, Prince Out, Osman, Hartenstein Questionable, Love Probable: Honestly the only relevant news here is Kevin Love's probable return after missing the Cavs last game. He's played well lately, but I don't trust him enough against the slow paced Mavericks to warrant consideration. Unless all of Osman, Love and Hartenstein sit, I'm fading the Cavs tonight.

Porzingis Out, Kleber Questionable: Porzingis continues to sit, and that means Luka Doncic ($11,000 & $10,600) continues to be a strong play. Even though he struggled to get it going last time out against the Cavs, the importance of these games for the Mavericks means he should be heavily involved, especially if the game stays close.

Wendell Carter, MCW, Ennis, Okeke, Porter Jr, Ross Out: Prices have just about adjusted to the Magic's all out tank, but the matchup against MIN is so good that I don't mind taking stabs at either Mo Bamba ($7,000 & $8,200) or Cole Anthony ($6,700 & $5,500), both of whom have played great recently.

Zion, Ingram, Hart, Out, Adams Questionable, NAW probable: A lot to break down here, but luckily for us, we saw ta similar injury report last game, so we have an idea of where the minutes will fall. If Adams sits, I think you have to look at Jaxson Hayes ($4,200 & $5,000) who was fantastic last game in just 24 minutes and should see even more tonight. If Adams plays, my favorite value is James Johnson ($3,800 & $4,400) who should start again, and has 30+ DK point potential (as we've seen earlier this year in similar situations). Regardless of the final injury report I also think Lonzo Ball ($8,400 & $8,000) is hard to look away from in a matchup against his little brother where both teams are in the playoff hunt.

Ellington, Plumlee, Joseph, Diallo, Jackson, McGruder, Smith Jr, Out, Grant Questionable: The Pistons decided to bring their guys back for a game against the Sixers last night (not really sure why, they got blown out), but they all head back to the 'injury' report tonight. This means the usual suspects of Stewart, Doumbouya, Bey, etc are back into consideration. For me, most of their price points are too high to serious consider playing, but the one guy I don't hate is Deividas Sirvydis ($3,000 & $3,500), who randomly played played 24 minutes last night (even with all the usual starters active), and would be a really interesting play if you think he gets anywhere near that again. At the site minimum price, I'll probably have him in a couple GPP lines tonight.

Fox, Haliburton Out, Barnes Doubtful, Hield Questionable: Could be some big news here, if Hield and Barnes sit, I think you can look to some really cheap guys for value. Terence Davis ($5,100 both) and even Kyle Guy ($3,000 & $3,500) would warrant consideration. If Hield plays, the only player from the Kings i'm looking at is Delon Wright ($7,700 & $8,100) who is no longer a lock at his current price, but is still cheap enough and has produced so well that he's worthy of some looks.  

Bron Out, Schroeder Out, Kuzma Doubtful, Caruso, Horton-Tucker Questionable, AD probable: The Lakers injury report is honestly really confusing to me. They DESPERATELY need a win to stay out of the play-in tournament and half their key guys aren't playing. Either they are seriously banged up, or giving up on this season as a whole. Regardless, this injury news makes Anthony Davis ($10,300 & $10,100) a solid look, especially after what he did last game. I also really like Alex Caruso ($4,600 & $4,700) if he plays. Maybe you can get him at lower ownership because of the questionable tag. If somehow both Caruso and THT sit, it could be worth taking a stab at a guy like Wesley Mathews ($3,000 & $3,500) who would certainly see the minutes.

5/9 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Luka Doncic (11,000 DK and 10,600 FD)

 I'm gonna go with Luka purely because of lack of other top tier options tonight. I think AD is also a solid play, but his matchup against the Sun scares me a lot more than Luka's against the Cavs. The Mavericks need a win tonight, and Luka is averaging 58.7 DK points over his last 5 games. Lock him in as your cash stud.

EXTRA FREE CORE!

Jaxson Hayes* ($4,200 DK & $5,000 FD)

If Adams sits tonight, Jaxson is a must play at 4.2K. He exploded for 41 DK points last game, and would be in a similar role again tonight with Adams out. I love his matchup against the Hornets, and he's just way too cheap given how much upside he possesses.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Anthony Edwards (8,300 DK and 8,800 FD)

Even though there's nothing on the line, I'm okay with targeting this MIN v ORL game, because I think it'll be high scoring and it's full of young players looking to prove themselves towards the end of the year. Edwards is still competing for the Rookie of the Year award, and he is quietly on a monster 4 game stretch where he's scored over 25 points in each game. He's playing a ridiculous amount of minutes, and even though the ownership might be higher than you'd want as a GPP play, the upside was too great for me not to write about him.

We offer full 5-6 player cores EVERY SINGLE DAY to AC+ NBA members! start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA membership today! 

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/9 AC Projection Tables

Looking for our Full Ownership/Point Projections and Lineup Optimizers?

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY 

As I mentioned earlier, I think the playoff implications of some of tonight's games make MKF really interesting. Stars come to play in big games, and I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far, and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Luka Doncic MORE than 28.5 Points

 I figured I'd give you guys the two plays from the MORE/LESS star shootout, because I actually like both the plays. First things first, I like Luka to go for 29+ tonight, he scored 24 in just 23 minutes last game against the Cavs, and like I mentioned earlier, the Mavs need a win tonight. Look for him to get his shot going early. With Porzingis out this line just feels a bit too low.

Devin Booker MORE than 26.5 Points

Before last game where he shot 3-12, DBook had gone over 26.5 4 games in a row. I don't see a depleted Lakers team stopping him tonight. As long as this game stays close long enough for Book to play the fourth, which it should with the Lakers needing a win as bad as they do, he should easily go over 26.5 again tonight.

 

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!