NBA DFS Analytics: May 4th


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- Today's main slate features 7 games. DET, GSW, NOP are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v MIL at 242 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DAL v MIA at 216 points.


I'm going to start off this 'Need to Know' section with what I think is extremely important info to consider for tonight's slate. We are approaching the NBA playoffs, and because of the new playoff format, games are becoming especially critical for NBA teams. I think this opens up some amazing opportunities to win serious $$ both on Monkey Knife Fight (which I'll get to in a second) and in DFS. When building your DFS lineups tonight, take into account which teams (and players) desperately need to win, and which teams are playing in games that have less on the line. I'll touch on this in my writing tonight, but I'm going to be targeting a number of guys playing in games with significant playoff implications. 

Bridges, Washington, Hayward, Martin, Graham Out: Without all these guys in the lineup, there is TONS of value to be found on the CHA roster. Virtually everyone gets a boost, but I REALLY like Rozier ($7,300 DK and $6,000 FD) and Lamelo ($7,100 DK and $6,200 FD), who should both see large upticks in their shots, usage, and minutes.

Smith Jr., McGruder, Grant, Plumlee, Ellington, Josh Jackson Out, Frank Jackson, Diallo Questionable: TONS of news out of DET here. Josh Jackson has been downgraded to out, which opens up value, and Frank/Diallo sitting would open up even more. I definitely like Bey ($6,000 DK and $6,200 FD), who’s basically the go-to guy with all these injuries. 

Delly, Stevens, Windler, Prince, Hartenstein, Garland, Nance Out: Without all these guys in the lineup (mainly Garland), I am LOVING me some Sexton ($8,300 DK and $8,500 FD), who becomes the primary playmaker/ball handler and has been criticized in the media lately for his lack of facilitating on offense. I expect him to have a big night tonight.

Kleber Questionable, Porzingis Doubtful: If both of these guys sit, I think you have to look at either Powell ($3,300 DK and $4,000 FD) or Boban ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who would definitely see some minutes. If only Kristaps sits, I like Luka ($10,800 DK and $10,900 FD), who should take more shots and see higher usage without him.

Adams, Ball Questionable: Adams has been out, but if Lonzo sits, I would like whoever gets the start for him to see a slight value boost. 

Fox, Haliburton Out, Barnes Doubtful, Metu Questionable: With Fox, Haliburton, and (probably) Barnes sitting, you have to look at Hield ($7,300 DK and $7,000 FD), who should see more shots and usage than normal. 

OG, Boucher Out, Trent Doubtful: Nothing new here - these guys have already been out. In fact, with both Lowry and FVV in the lineup tonight (which is rare), I think there’s too many cooks in the kitchen for TOR, especially given how the prices for these guys have risen as a result of the injuries these past few weeks.

GS not yet submitted: GS played last night, so they might rest some people. Stay tuned.


This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! Today, we're giving you guys 1 extra FREE core play!!


In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Collin Sexton ($8,300 DK & $8,500 FD)

Just like Garland was a lock with Sexton out, Sexton becomes a cash lock with Garland out tonight. They both are so involved offensively that one’s absence opens up ridiculous usage for the other. In the last game with Garland out, Sexton went for 25-8-4 while playing a team high 39 minutes. Look for something similar again tonight.

Saddiq Bey ($6,000 & $6,200)

We have Bey projected at nearly 20% ownership, but it could very well be higher than that with how well he’s played lately. He’s shown us in these past two games that he’s a must play when Grant and Plumlee are out, and that’s the case again tonight. The Pistons play the Hornets tonight, a replay of a May 1st matchup where Bey went for 22-7-5 while taking 21(!) shots! I’m having a hard time looking away from him in cash or GPP lineups tonight.


Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Kyrie Irving (9,600 DK and 9,500 FD)

Kyrie shot terribly last time out against MIL, so I think you can probably get him at really low ownership tonight (projected ~10%). What makes me really excited about him as a GPP play is how many shots he still took, and how well KD played. I expect MIL to double team KD almost every time he touches the ball tonight after getting absolutely burned by him on Sunday. This should open up more space for Kyrie, who took 21 shots and only hit 8 of them. If Kyrie gets hot tonight, which he very easily could, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him go for 35+ real points.

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Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/4 AC Projection Tables

Looking for our Full Ownership/Point Projections and Lineup Optimizers?


As I mentioned earlier, I think the playoff implications of some of tonight's games make MKF really interesting. Stars come to play in big games, and I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far, and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Collin Sexton MORE than 5.5 Assists

Sexton has seen criticism recently for his lack of facilitating and ball-moving. A report came out that some of his teammates grow frustrated at the fact that he dribbles too much and doesn’t pass the ball to his teammates. He replied, saying he’s going to essentially prove everyone wrong. If there’s one thing I know about Sexton, it’s that when he puts his mind to something, and attacks with intensity and anger (like I predict he will tonight), he’s virtually unstoppable. I am HIGH on Sexton tonight, especially as a playmaker.

Steph Curry MORE than 36.5 Points

If you watched last night’s game against the Pelicans, you saw Curry absolutely pick the defense apart with very little resistance. Steph is in a groove unlike any other I’ve EVER seen in the NBA, and to be completely honest, this number would have to be like 39.5 for me to go under. The Pels will most definitely make some adjustments tonight, but I just don’t see it having an impact on Steph’s performance. Steph is going to come out firing.

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!