NBA DFS Analytics: May 29th


Announcements

1) Welcome to our FREE NBA DFS Newsletter! It's playoff time and we can't wait to bring you some value. Below you will find:

- Some Quick Hitters on the days games.

- Our Playoff Blueprint, with DFS plays we like from various price ranges and some ideas for lineup construction strategy.

- Our Projection Tables, which offer a sneak peak at our FULL Player projections, which can be found in our AC+ NBA Newsletter.

- Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the day, you can learn more about Monkey Knife Fight here.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (5/29)

- Today's main slate features 4 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHI v WAS at 228 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIL v MIA at 222 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

Let me start out by saying that the Joker is not only my favorite play of the top tier but also definitely the safest. The other 10k+ guys (Giannis and Russ) both have lower floors. Giannis is banged up and could mentally take this game off a bit (or could even see fewer minutes), and Russ just hasn’t been his normal self this series without his normal success in transition. So, I’ll start by locking in Jokic. Then, I REALLY LIKE the mid-tier tonight; Conley might be my favorite play of the night and I think you’re getting great value for Nurkic and Simmons as well (not to mention a bunch of other good mid-tier value that I didn’t get a chance to write about). Finally, I could see rounding out my lineup with Bryn Forbes, who’s one of my favorite value plays of the night and is clearly a strength of that low-tier.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Donovan Mitchell ($8,200)

I think you’re getting excellent value with Donovan Mitchell at the low end of this top tier. He only put up 25 and 2 in the last game, but he should play a lot better tonight in his second game back from injury. He looked fresh and bouncy in his first game back, and he seemed optimistic about how his body responded, so I expect him to really lean into the game today and finally get completely back to himself. They’ll probably try to get him going early, and I think they could have to rely on him a bit more than normal towards the end of the game, especially since they’ll be in a hostile road environment in what will very likely be a close game.

3. Ja Morant ($8,300)

I think Ja comes back to earth a little bit after his ridiculous game 2 performance, but I think a lot of what he did was sustainable and therefore I expect another productive game. He’s been able to get inside the paint at will on the Jazz, and has had multiple scoring runs all by himself. There isn’t a great matchup for him - Royce is their best perimeter defender but would be a little better suited for more of a wing. Ja is a little too quick for him, and I expect him to continue to exploit that by getting into the paint tonight. This will be his first ever playoff game in MEM, so he should be HYPED.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Jusuf Nurkic ($6,900)

Nurkic simply has not played well enough in this series, and I expect him to step up tonight in a must-win game for Portland at home. Kanter looks like he’s potentially been faded from the lineup, so you should have a lot of confidence in the minutes that Nurk should get tonight. Furthermore, I think the Blazers will have to establish him down low if they want to go at Nurkic. The best way to limit an offensive beast is to go at him defensively, so I think Nurkic needs to shift his focus from stopping Jokic to going at Jokic, which would result in better offensive numbers. DEN will continue trapping Lillard off the PnR, which should continue to open up the middle for Nurkic to operate in the 4 on 3 off of the roll.   

3. Ben Simmons ($7,600)

Ben Simmons has had an excellent series so far against WAS; he put up 6-15-15 in game 1 and 22-9-8 in game 2, two excellent dfs performances. I think this matchup is perfect for Simmons. First of all, he has a major size advantage on basically whoever is guarding him on WAS - The Wizards don’t start a huge lineup, so there are multiple mismatches on switches to be found. Also, the Wizards love to play in transition, which plays to Ben Simmons favor big-time. He’s one of the best transition players in the league, and he’s really killed the Wizards going down-hill in this series and in the paint. He’s a player who plays a lot better when he’s confident, so I expect another big game tonight.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Ish Smith ($4,800)

It’s only a matter of time before Ish Smith completely takes over Raul Neto’s role and minutes. He’s slowly increased his minutes while Neto has done the opposite, and he’s played far better in his minutes than Neto has. With the pace that they’re trying to play at, Ish is just a better fit for the Wizards at this moment. The Wizards will have to change something up today, and I have a feeling it could be Ish Smith either getting the start or at least getting starter’s minutes. He’s been tough for PHI to defend, and I think WAS will have to do everything they can to exploit that tonight.

3. Royce O’Neale ($4,600)

If you look at Royce O’Neale’s price and then look at the players around him, it just seems like Royce has a much higher floor than his counterparts. You know he’s going to get 30+ minutes because he’s needed on the defensive end, and that often turns into some solid offensive stats. He put up 14-8-3 last game, and I expect him to play well again tonight. He flourishes with Mitchell in the lineup because it allows him to play way more of a spot up shooting and crashing-the-glass type role, so I only expect his numbers to improve with Mitchell even more healthy and ready to go for game 3.

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/29 AC Projection Tables

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!

Donovan Mitchell MORE than 25.5 Points

Donovan Mitchell only played 26 minutes in game 2, but he put up 25 points. It was also his first game back from injury in A WHILE, so it wasn’t surprising that he shot only 8-19. I expect his minutes to increase and for him to play better tonight, which could mean a vintage Donovan Mitchell playoff performance. He also loves playing against the Away crowd (kind of like Trae), so I think he should get up for an awesome environment in MEM tonight.

Nikola Jokic MORE than 32.5 Points

Jokic has put up 34, 38, and 36 in his first 3 games of this series, and I see literally no signs of him slowing down. The Blazers just aren’t willing to send a double team at him in the middle of the court (probably because they think he’ll pick it apart with his passing - which he probably will), so Jokic has really been taking advantage of the single coverage. No one can guard him 1 on 1 in the NBA, and especially not Nurkic, so I expect him to exploit that matchup once again tonight.

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!