NBA DFS Analytics: May 26th


Announcements

1) Welcome to our FREE NBA DFS Newsletter! It's playoff time and we can't wait to bring you some value. Below you will find:

- Some Quick Hitters on the days games.

- Our Playoff Blueprint, with DFS plays we like from various price ranges and some ideas for lineup construction strategy.

- Our Projection Tables, which offer a sneak peak at our FULL Player projections, which can be found in our AC+ NBA Newsletter.

- Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the day, you can learn more about Monkey Knife Fight here.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (5/26)

- Today's main slate features 3 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v PHI at 230.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ATL v NYK at 212.5 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

I think the low-tier is especially weak tonight, meaning a stars and scrubs strategy might not be as beneficial as normal. Contrary to yesterday’s games, I don’t expect the stars (top-tier guys) to have as much success. In the Suns and Lakers, I could see LAL throwing a double-team at Booker, and I could see the Suns limiting AD and maybe even Bron with some extended help-side defense like they did in game 1. In the LAC v DAL game, I expect the Clippers to once again aggressively double Luka, and I could see the same happening on the other side of the ball for Kawhi and PG. In the Nets and Celtics game, I could see the Nets being more aggressive on Tatum with a double; he’s the main offensive threat, and if he struggles, the Celtics struggle. On the other side of the ball, each of the Nets stars scares me, because it could be any one of them that goes for 35+, which would result in the other 2 having weaker games. So, to conclude, I would hunt the middle tier tonight.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Julius Randle ($9,400)

Even though Randle played TERRIBLY in game 1, he still managed to put up 15-4-12, making it a semi-decent fantasy night. It would be tough for him to shoot worse, so I'm definitely going to target Randle in my lineups tonight, who should have a bounce back game. He clearly had some nerves due to the fact that he was playing in his first ever playoff game, but those should have subsided a bit, and he should be more mentally ready to play tonight, resulting in a better shooting performance. Randle should stuff the stat sheet tonight and is a walking triple-double threat.

3. Bradley Beal ($8,800)

It makes no sense that Beal is 2.6k less than Westbrook, especially considering he had a better fantasy performance in game 1. Westbrook’s stat padding definitely takes a hit during the playoffs (because of the decrease in pace and the increase in defensive effort), and I think it’s Bradley Beal who will continue to be relied upon in late game situations as opposed to Westbrook. I really like Beal at 8.8k, even though he’ll have a tough matchup with whoever is guarding him tonight; Beal seems to really get up for these matchups where he gets to go against an elite defender (Simmons or Thybulle), so I expect another big game tonight from him.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Derrick Rose ($5,900)

Derrick Rose, at only 5.9k, has to be strongly considered in both Cash and Gpp lineups tonight. Even with the 27 point outburst by Rose’s benchmate Alec Burks, Rose was still able to rack up 17-5-5 in 38 minutes (the most on the team). It’s clear that Thibideau trusts Rose more than any other ball handler on this team, so I expect to continue to see him in late game situations and logging heavy minutes. I see myself continuing to go to Rose if he’s going to be at the bottom end of this mid-tier, because I just think you’re getting more value (in terms of both a floor and a ceiling) than the other players around this price range.  

3. Dillon Brooks ($6,300)

I’m not chasing his big game 1 performance, but it’s definitely impacting my feelings about Brooks tonight. Brooks was able to get whatever he wanted offensively, and he played with an incredible amount of energy and intensity; to put it plainly, he was made for playoff basketball. I think with the reintegration of Mitchell tonight, Brooks will be tasked with guarding him, which bodes well for his fantasy output. As I discussed in a recent article I wrote, I’ve noticed that when Brooks locks down a star player on the defensive end, he almost always follows it up with a good performance on the offensive end - it’s like he gains energy from shutting a player down. So, I expect him to get up for the matchup against Donovan, and I expect another big performance in game 2.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Rui Hachimura ($4,700)

Unlike most players in this bottom tier, Rui is a player that is locked in for his starters minutes (35+); he’s very much needed on the defensive end, and he gives them the versatility to be able to excel in transition. Rui has a very solid floor (he put up 12 and 5 last game), but what really excites me is his ceiling. PHI will do everything they can do to limit the two stars in WAS, which I think could definitely open up some more three pointers and driving opportunities for Hachimura.  

3. Taj Gibson ($3,300)

With Nerlens Noel’s ankle injury, I could definitely see Taj Gibson getting a slight increase in his minutes. I expect Noel to play, but there’s no telling how that sprained ankle will impact his defensive presence tonight, which could in turn mean more minutes for Taj. Even if Noel is completely fine, Taj is still trusted by Thibideau, so I could see him somehow getting the majority of the big-man minutes if he plays well. Keep an eye on this injury situation, but I definitely like Taj Gibson as a low-tier guy tonight.

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/26 AC Projection Tables

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!

Donovan Mitchell LESS than 25.5 Points

I just think it’s flat out unrealistic to think that Mitchell will be completely himself in his first game back from injury in a couple months. To make matters worse, he’ll be thrown right into the thick of a must-win playoff game, and he’ll likely be guarded by Dillon Brooks, one of the NBA’s elite two way wings. I expect Brooks to put the clamps on Mitchell (at least if he starts to get it going), and I expect Mitchell to take a game to get his feet wet and remember what it’s like to play playoff basketball again. I don’t like a particularly high scoring or efficient game from Mitchell tonight.

Russell Westbrook MORE than 11.5 Rebounds

I know Russell Westbrook had only 5 rebounds last game, but I think MKF is overreacting a little bit to that. I expect Westbrook to follow up his poor game 1 performance by absolutely attacking the glass with authority and getting out in transition once he gets rebounds. He should come out angry tonight after the game 1 loss in which he struggled late-game, so he’ll have a chance to flex his muscle tonight on the boards.

If you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!