NBA DFS Analytics: May 23rd


Announcements

1) Welcome to our FREE NBA DFS Newsletter! It's playoff time and we can't wait to bring you some value. Below you will find:

- Some Quick Hitters on the days games.

- Our Playoff Blueprint, with DFS plays we like from various price ranges and some ideas for lineup construction strategy.

- Our Projection Tables, which offer a sneak peak at our FULL Player projections, which can be found in our AC+ NBA Newsletter.

- Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the day, you can learn more about Monkey Knife Fight here.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (5/23)

- Today's main slate features 4 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v PHI at 229 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v PHO at 213 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

I’m most excited about the mid-tier plays tonight. D'Rose and CP3 might be my 2 favorite value plays of the night, and Curry isn’t far behind. There is tons of depth in this mid-tier, and I think you have to construct your lineup with that in mind tonight. I would lock in a couple or a few of those mid-tier options and then use our optimizer to find some good value at the top and bottom tiers. These teams are seemingly a lot more well-rounded than the team’s yesterday, so that should result in some better production from the low and mid tier guys.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Julius Randle ($9,200)

I’m actually somewhat surprised I'm doing this, because I think Randle will probably have a tough shooting night tonight; it’s his first playoff game ever, and he’ll definitely have some nerves. However, even if he shoots a poor percentage, I think he’ll get up TONS of shots and will fill out the stat sheet in other ways as well. He’s going to be extremely fired up to play this game, and I could see a 10 for 30 type of performance where he’s got too much energy for his own good. The other thing is that Randle gets A LOT of value from his player profile, suggesting that the Hawks are really bad at guarding tough players like Julius, something that should bode well for his success this series. 

3. Anthony Davis ($10,000)

I’ve talked a lot about how banged up AD is and why that might impact his effectiveness in this series, but I think he still puts up good numbers regardless of if he actually plays well. Everybody knows that Lebron takes the first game of the series to figure out the other team, and this fact should especially be the case as James is battling an ankle injury. So, I expect the Lakers to rely far more heavily on AD tonight, who will probably see more shots and usage than normal. I also don’t envision Ayton being able to slow AD down; perhaps he has the size and strength, but he definitely doesn't have the agility or versatility that’s needed to guard him.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Chris Paul ($7,500)

Even though Paul’s teams have struggled in the playoffs, he performs well again and again every season, and I don’t expect this year to be any different. He’s the heart and soul of this team, and I expect his usage and time of possession to increase a little bit during these playoffs. He’s going against his old teammate Schroder (who he knows well), so I think he’ll know how to effectively attack and exploit him. You can bet your money’s worth that the Suns will be relying on CP3 as opposed to Booker in important moments (especially early in these playoffs), as Chris will be trying to make Dbook’s adjustment as seamless as possible.

3. Seth Curry ($5,000)

At only 5k, I think you would be getting excellent value for Seth Curry tonight. As I talked about earlier, the Wizards will most certainly show double teams to Embiid throughout the game, which are bound to create open threes for Curry. Curry has been known to be effective in the playoffs (he was great last season for the Mavericks), and I would feel super comfortable with him at 5k given what his minutes and shot attempts should look like, as well as the quality of those shot attempts as a result of the attention that Joel required in the post. I think Embiid looks to open up shots early for his teammates, and that will almost certainly help out Curry’s ability to return value tonight.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Jae Crowder ($4,100)

Jae Crowder will, in my opinion, be an X factor in this series. Not only will he spend a decent amount of time defensively on Lebron, but he’ll be tasked with hitting open threes throughout the series (something he’s been really good at this season). It’s easy to forget about the shooters surrounding Paul and Booker, and I think the Lakers will definitely get caught sleeping a few times today. At this price tag, I think there’s a really good chance that he returns value, and I could even see him smashing his price tag if he gets hot from three.

3. Daniel Gafford ($4,100)

I’ve thought a lot about this series and how the Wizards will have any chance of winning it, and I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s going to have to be by making it as fast-paced as possible. They need to make Embiid get up and down the court as many times as possible, and they need to make this a track meet. Gafford is most certainly the best big for that strategy, as he runs the floor well and can catch lobs at the rim in a number of athletic ways. Gafford has been by far the best big on this WAS team, and even though he won’t get the start today, I think he’ll be able to return value on his small price tag.

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/23 AC Projection Tables

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!

Anthony Davis MORE than 25.5 Points

As I talked about earlier, Lebron takes game ones of playoff series’ to get to know the other team. He feels out his opponent, and he is often less aggressive going to the hoop than normal; I think this is only compounded by the ankle injury and the fact that he’s not 100%. Therefore, I expect AD to step up for the Lakers tonight, whether it be in a win or a loss. Ayton definitely doesn’t have the foot speed to stay with Davis, so I would look for Davis to exploit that early and often.

Ja Morant (+5.5 Points) MORE points than Donovan Mitchell

Although I think Donovan Mitchell will come back a lot better than we think he will (given his long injury rehab), I still don’t think he’s at his best game 1. Conversely, Ja is coming off a great game in probably the most important game of his career, and he should look to keep it rolling tonight. With the +5.5 point boost that Morant gets tonight, I just have a VERY HARD time looking away from this line.

If you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!