NBA DFS Analytics: May 20th and May 21st


Announcements

1) IMPORTANT: For DraftKings, May 20th's NBA slate is COMBINED with May 21st, meaning that both of the final play-in games will be included in today's Optimizer, Datasheet, and Newsletter! However, this is not the case for FanDuel. We will update the datasheet links in this newsletter tomorrow to account for the new FanDuel projections. You will also notice there is no optimizer for FanDuel tonight, that's because we believe optimizers for Showdowns are significantly less valuable than for typical NBA contests. We encourage you to focus primarily on ownership projections and our writeups if you plan to play in Showdown contests tonight or tomorrow! 

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

QUICK HITTERS (5/20 - 5/21)

- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is IND v WAS at 237 points. The game with the lowest over/under is GSW vs. MEM at 222 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

There are only 4 options over 8k tonight (not to mention Ja is $8,300 and the next highest is Lebron at $10,000), and I think you have to get at least 2 of them in your lineup. There is obviously a significant drop off after this top tier, so not getting one of these 4 that absolutely goes off would probably be a large detriment to your lineup. I would even like getting Steph, Lebron, and Ja, and then filling up your lineup with some lower tier value, which I think there is a decent amount of tonight. With only 2 games being played tonight, there are a limited number of lineup building strategies.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second (and sometimes third) favorite play(s) from each tier! For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Jonas Valanciunas ($8,000)

I already made a mistake not picking JoVal during the last matchup with the Warriors, and there’s no way I’m doing that again. JoVal is an absolute beast in the post, and there’s no one that can stop him on the Warriors. Draymond is too small, and Looney just doesn’t have the strength to keep JoVal off the block. Although Morant is widely believed to be the best player on this team, it’s actually JoVal who has been far more consistent this season. He’s a lock for a double-double, and I think you’re getting great value for him at only 8k against a Warriors team that we literally just saw him dominate less than 5 days ago.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Draymond Green ($7,300 DK)

Steph scored 46 last time out against the Grizzlies, and I therefore think MEM will be even more aggressive in terms of double teaming him in this next matchup. If that’s the case, which I expect it to be, Draymond will have a field day. He’s made a career off of playing 4 v 3 as a result of Steph being doubled on ball screens, and I think he’ll get to do so tomorrow night as well. If you watched the LAL vs GSW game last night, you saw the intensity and energy that Draymond brought on both ends. Perhaps it resulted in fewer offensive opportunities against LAL because he was tasked with guarding both AD and Lebron at different points, but I think he’ll have more offensive opportunities against MEM, where he’ll be matched up with a far weaker offensive player and will thus be able to save some energy for the offensive end.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Ish Smith ($4,400)

If last game is any indication, it appears Ish Smith has overtaken Neto for those backcourt minutes. Even though Neto started, he only played 17 minutes and put up 0-1-1 in those minutes. Ish Smith, on the other hand, put up 17-3-8 in 26 minutes and was more effective in essentially every way, including defensively. I think the Wizards will stick with Ish Smith tonight if they have even half a brain; he’s more of a threat both offensively and defensively, and he excels in transition, which is perfect for tonight’s game against IND. As I’ve said multiple times, this game features the 2 fastest-paced teams in the NBA, so you really want to focus on players who are good in transition (McConnell, Ish, etc).

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/20 AC Projection Tables

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

NBA Playoff are upon us, so it's a great time to get involved with MKF! I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Domantas Sabonis MORE than 56.5 Fantasy Points

These are the numbers that Sabonis put up in his three games against the Wizards this season… Game 1: 35-6-11. Game 2: 32-9-19. Game 3: 30-13-13. Need I say more? Given the pace that BOTH of these teams want to play at, as well as the lack of front court firepower that the Wizards have to slow down Sabonis, it’s not surprising that Sabonis absolutely dominated his first three matchups against the Wizards this season. I don’t expect tonight to be any different, especially with a playoff berth on the line. Sabonis will be the focal point of the offense with a banged up Brogdon and an absent Levert, and he should put up similar numbers to his first three performances.

Dillon Brooks (+0.5 Fantasy Points) MORE Fantasy Points than Kent Bazemore

I have to be honest here, I’m quite baffled by this line. Of course I can see a world where Bazemore gets some open three point looks and racks up 3+ steals/blocks against the Warriors, but it’s very unlikely; Kent plays more of a defensive/hustle role, which, even though it’s needed, is not meaningful in Fantasy. I’m FAR more confident in Dillon Brooks, who is at times a focal point of the Grizzlies offense and can really light it up. Perhaps Brooks isn’t projected to do well because of the defensive assignment he’ll be tasked with, but he guarded Curry last game and put up 18-6-2, so I expect him to have enough energy to excel offensively again. With the +0.5 boost that Brooks gets, I just can’t go away from him.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!