NBA DFS Analytics: May 1st


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QUICK HITTERS (5/1)

- Today's main slate features 10 games. ATL, CHI, CLE, MEM, ORL, UTA, and WAS  are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is NOP v MIN at 237.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ATL v CHI at 215.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Ball, Monk Questionable: Both of these guys will probably be on a minutes restriction (if they play), so all it’ll do is take away some value from the remaining CHA players (Graham, Bridges, Rozier, etc). I will stay away from CHA tonight.

Ellington, Grant, Joseph, Plumlee, McGruder, Smith jr., Okafor Out, Diallo Doubtful: Without all these guys in the lineup, there is tons of value to be found on this DET team tonight. I really like Stewart ($6,500 DK and $5,900 FD), who will get the start and see tons of minutes due to both Plumlee and Okafor sitting. I also definitely like Sekou ($3,100 DK and $3,500 FD), who’s far too cheap given the 25+ minutes he should see tonight (he played 29 last game and scored 14 points).

Lee, Paschall, Wiseman Out, Draymond, Oubre Questionable: I would be shocked if Dray sits tonight (as every game moving forward is a must-win for GS), but if he does I would look towards whoever starts in his place. Oubre sitting would give a slight value boost to the other starters, but I’m having a hard time liking anyone other than Steph ($10,600 DK and $9,700 FD), who I think will completely take over the game for the Warriors tonight, solidifying his MVP case.

Augustin, Bradley, House jr. Out: DJ Wilson ($3,300 DK and $4,500 FD) played 25 minutes last game and put up 15-1-12. I think he’s far too cheap given the 25+ minutes he should see tonight as a result of all the injuries in HOU. There is a lot of value on HOU tonight as they’re facing the 2nd fastest-paced team in the league (GS) and are riddled with injuries.

Bogdan, Huerter Questionable: These guys sat last game, and Trae went off in their absence. I would like Trae ($9,300 DK and $9,500 FD) tonight again (especially if they don’t play) because ATL is fighting for a playoff spot and is playing in must-win games from here on out.

Lavine, Troy Brown Out, Vucevic, Markkanen Questionable: Lauri sat last game, and if Vuc sits as well, I’m really liking Theis ($4,400 DK and $5,300 FD), who would see more minutes and usage at that PF/C position. I also would like White ($6,500 DK and $6,200 FD) if Vuc sits, as I think that pushes White into the primary playmaker role.

Turner, Sampson Out, Sabonis, Brogdon, Bitadze, Lamb Questionable: Wow - there is a lot here. If Sabonis and/or Bitadze sits, I would like Brissett ($5,900 DK and $7,000 FD), who has played tons of big-man minutes and has played well in these guys’ absences. If Brogdon sits, I’m LOVING Levert ($8,300 DK and $8,100 FD), who would jump into the primary scorer and playmaker role.

Dort, Pokusevski Out: Without these two starters, I really like Bazley ($6,400 DK and $6,700 FD), who has a good chance to be the primary playmaker and scorer. He should be able to take advantage of the depleted IND frontcourt.

Garland, Hartenstein, Stevens Out: Without Garland, Sexton ($8,100 DK and $8,200 FD) should see a bump in his usage and shot attempts tonight, which bodes well for him returning value at his 8k range price tag, even against a good MIA defense.

Porzingis, Reddick Out, Kleber Probable: Without Kristaps, I definitely like Luka ($10,900 DK and $10,800 FD), who should see more shot attempts and usage, is playing against the worst defense/fastest paced team in the NBA, and is coming off a game of rest. I expect a huge night from Luka.

Kawhi Questionable: If Kawhi sits, Paul George ($10,000 DK and $9,400 FD) sees a value boost as he becomes the clear primary scorer and playmaker. If Kawhi plays, I don’t see much value on the Clippers tonight, especially against a good DEN defense.

Lowry, Trent, Boucher Out: It seems like FVV and Lowry are taking turns sitting out, so I would definitely look to VanVleet ($7,800 DK and $7,400 FD), who becomes the go-to guy for the Raps tonight without Lowry; he’s also coming off a game of rest, so he should be fresh and ready to go.

5/1 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Luka Doncic (10,900 DK and 10,800 FD)

Anytime a star plays against Washington he needs to be considered for both cash/GPP lineups. With Luka projected at over 35% ownership tonight, he’s a definite cash lock, especially with the Mavericks only half a game ahead of the Trail Blazers for the crucial 6th seed in the west. He’s going to need to take over for the Mavericks to win against a desperate Washington team, and I think he does just that tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Darius Bazley (6,400 DK and 6,700 FD)

Even though Aleksej and Dort are both out for the Thunder tonight, I hope Bazley’s ownership won’t be too high because I simply think there are too many other great options (due to all the injuries) on this slate. Bazley should be the go-to guy for the Thunder tonight, and he’s going up against an IND team that has been dreadful on the defensive end as of late. IND is also depleted in the front court and is terrible at guarding players like Bazley who like to take the ball hard to the rack. I expect Bazley to punish IND in the paint tonight.

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TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/1 AC Projection Tables

Looking for our Full Ownership/Point Projections and Lineup Optimizers?

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Luka Doncic MORE than 30.5 Points

I have a feeling Luka will pop off tonight. The Mavericks are in the thick of the playoff race and are trying to get as high a seed as possible, and Luka will have to put the team on his back without the help of Porzingis tonight. Furthermore, the Mavs are in an excellent matchup against WAS, who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the 2nd most points to opposing teams. They’re also AWFUL at guarding players like Luka. EVERYTHING is pointing towards a big Luka night tonight.

Collin Sexton MORE than 23.5 Points

The Cavs will be without Garland tonight, clearing the way for Sexton to take virtually as many shots as he would like. Sexton also recently sat out for a bunch of games, so he should be fresh and ready to go for tonight’s game. Now, I know what you’re thinking: why would I pick Sexton to score a bunch of points against the 4th best defense in the NBA? Well, Sexton plays up to his competition (as we’ve seen throughout his college and pro career), and I think he COMES TO PLAY tonight against a rolling Heat team.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!