NBA DFS Analytics: May 11th


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QUICK HITTERS (5/11)

- Today's main slate features 11 games. GSW, IND, MIL, MEM are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHI v IND at 234.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is NYK v LAL at 213 points.

NEED TO KNOW

I'm going to start off this 'Need to Know' section with what I think is extremely important info to consider for tonight's slate. We are approaching the NBA playoffs, and because of the new playoff format, games are becoming especially critical for NBA teams. I think this opens up some amazing opportunities to win serious $$ both on Monkey Knife Fight (which I'll get to in a second) and in DFS. When building your DFS lineups tonight, take into account which teams (and players) desperately need to win, and which teams are playing in games that have less on the line. I'll touch on this in my writing tonight, but I'm going to be targeting a number of guys playing in games with significant playoff implications. 

Diallo, Ellington, Grant, Plumlee, Smith Jr, McGruder, Joseph Out, Frank Jackson, Josh Jackson Questionable: Without all these guys in the lineup, I really like Killian Hayes ($5,400 DK and $5,200 FD), who I just think is too cheap given the minutes and usage he’s been getting without all the Pistons main guys playing. He put up 21-8-7 on Sunday and should be poised to return value again.

OG, Baynes, Hood, Lowry, Siakam, VanVleet Out: Without all these guys in the lineup tonight, there is a TON of value to be found. I think virtually every guy who plays will be a solid play, but I definitely like Trent ($6,000 DK and $4,900 FD) the most, who should be the go-to guy tonight and is too cheap given what his usage will be. Consider stacking TOR tonight.

Robert Williams, Jaylen Brown Out: Brown has been out (and is now out for the rest of the season), but Robert Williams sitting will definitely open up some value for Thompson ($4,600 DK and $5,300 FD), who will start and get the majority of the big-man minutes in a must-win game for the Celtics. 

Brogdon, Lamb, Sumner, Turner Out, Sampson Questionable: This has been the case for a while, so the prices have for the most part adjusted adequately. Sabonis/Levert could be decent plays, but I’ll probably stay away from them just because there is so much other value on this slate.

Embiid Questionable, Thybulle, Korkmaz Out: If Embiid sits, there will be some usage and minutes available for various PHI guys. Tobias ($7,200 DK and $6,900 FD) would be a solid play if Embiid sits (but probably not if he plays), and there is some other value to be found simply as a result of PHI’s matchup against an IND team that plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the 5th most points.

Maledon Out, Dort, Jerome Questionable: If Jerome and Dort sit, I would really like Aleksej ($4,400 DK and FD), who should be the go-to guy offensively. Bazley ($6,800 DK and $6,200 FD) would also be a solid option if both Dort and Jerome sit, so keep an eye on the injury updates out of OKC today.

Fox, Haliburton Out, Barnes Doubtful, Hield Probable: The prices have adjusted to these guys being out, making it fairly hard to find value in SAC tonight. Davis ($5,300 DK and FD) would probably be my favorite play (as the prices for Wright and Holmes have risen too much).

Jaren Jackson Out, JoVal Doubtful: Without both these guys, there will be some major big-man minutes opened up. Brandon Clarke ($3,400 DK and $4,500 FD) is definitely the biggest recipient of this value, especially at his miniscule price tag. Tillman ($3,600 DK and FD) could also be a very solid cheap option, especially if Clarke somehow sits due to the B2B.

MIL, GSW not yet submitted: These teams played yesterday, so perhaps they will rest some guys. Keep yourself updated here.

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 5/11 AC Projection Tables

Looking for our Full Ownership/Point Projections and Lineup Optimizers?

5/11 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Jalen Harris ($3,100 DK & $4,200 FD)

It looks like tonight will be one of those ‘8 healthy players’ nights for the Raptors, which means you can bet on some serious value coming from their game against the Clippers. I like a couple guys from TOR tonight, Trent Jr, Birch, Bembry all seem like strong plays, but my absolute favorite is Jalen Harris. Harris played 29 minutes for the Raptors last game, and scored 16 points while grabbing 6 rebounds and dishing out 4 assists (for a total of 32 DK points). He’s 3.1K tonight on DraftKings, and at that price we project his GPP ownership over 35%. His cash ownership will be even higher, making him an excellent cash play.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

R.J. Hampton ($6,000 DK and $6,200 FD)

The Bucks are giving up an absolutely ridiculous amount of points lately. Over 130 in each of their last 3 and over 115 in each of their last 5. I think that makes it so you almost have to target someone from the Magic, even if it’s a blowout, this game will probably be high scoring. My favorite play here is R.J Hampton, he’s seemingly blowout proof (played 29 minutes and scored 30 DK points last game, when the Magic last by 32) and he has been really, really good lately, averaging just over 38 Dk points per game in his last 5 games. The fast pace and high projected score of this matchup should allow him to really get it going, and if he does, and wouldn’t be surprised to see another 40+ Dk point performance tonight.

We offer full 5-6 player cores EVERY SINGLE DAY to AC+ NBA members! start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA membership today! 

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY 

As I mentioned earlier, I think the playoff implications of some of tonight's games make MKF really interesting. Stars come to play in big games, and I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far, and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Tristan Thompson MORE than 9.5 Rebounds

With the recent news of Jaylen Brown missing the rest of the season, as well as the Celtics coming off a bad loss to the Heat, things are looking quite down for the Celtics. Their playoff chances are looking worse and worse, and they appear to have less intensity and energy than ever before. I think Thompson, one of the heart and soul’s of this team (along with Marcus Smart), will set the tone tonight on the glass and on the defensive end. He always brings it, and he’ll have to bring it extra tonight without the rebounding and vertical presence of Rob Williams and in a game that they must win if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive and well.

Duncan Robinson MORE than 2.5 Made Threes 

Duncan shot 10 threes just 2 days ago against the Celtics, and he made 6 of them. This isn’t a coincidence. Duncan grew up in the Boston area a huge Celtics fan, probably looking up to some of the guys still in the organization (Smart, Stevens, etc). Whenever he plays against BOS, especially IN Boston, he seems to bring an extra level of intensity and energy. He’s got his family, friends, past teammates, AAU coaches, etc in the stands watching him, and he definitely will at least attempt to give them another show tonight.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!