NBA DFS Analytics: March 31st


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Quick Hitters (3/31)

- Today's main slate features 10 games. PHO is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is HOU v BKN at 231 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v PHO at 217 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Doumbouya Questionable, Ellington Doubtful, Smith Jr. Out: With Ellington unlikely to play, I think you should strongly consider getting whoever starts in his place into your lineup; my guess would be Diallo ($4,600 DK and $5,800 FD), who’s coming off a 19-3-10 game and is in a great matchup against a POT team that’s terrible at guarding athletic wings.

Brown, Langford Questionable, Semi, Tristan Out: If Jaylen sits, Tatum ($8,700 DK and $9,000 FD) becomes a solid option, as he becomes the clear primary scorer tonight for BOS. I don’t love anyone on the Celtics if Brown plays, due to the fact that DAL plays at the 3rd slowest pace in the NBA and gives up the 12th fewest points.

Gordon, Nwaba Out, Wall Questionable, Wood, House Probable: If Wall sits, I think you have to look at getting Wood ($8,300 DK and $7,700 FD) into your lineup; he’s coming off a lot of rest, playing against a BKN team that plays at the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, gives up the 5th most points, and is the 8th worst team at guarding Centers. 

Bazley, Dort, SGA, Horford, Aleksej, Muscala Out, Jerome Questionable: The Thunder are EXTREMELY thin tonight, which is why I like most of the players on the team to return value. I probably like Kenrich Williams ($4,400 DK and FD) the most out of anyone, though, because I could see him getting into the starting lineup and getting way more minutes than normal. I think virtually every guard/wing on OKC gets a boost from the injuries tonight.

Bembry, McCaw, Watson, Harris, Lowry Out: Without Lowry in the lineup tonight, I think every starter (Pascal, Fred, OG, Trent) gets at least a slight value boost. I really like Fred ($7,700 DK and $7,400 FD), who becomes the primary ball handler and gets TONS of value from his player profile tonight due to the fact that OKC is terrible at guarding players like Fred (and they’re missing their best perimeter defender - Dort). I could also see Trent ($5,100 DK and $4,700 FD) having a breakout game for the Raps with what should be increased usage tonight.

Winslow Out, Allen Questionable: If Grayson sits (which I bet he does), I think Bane ($3,700 DK and $3,600 FD) becomes a must play. He’s extremely cheap and got the second half start last night because of Allen’s injury. He played well in his minutes, too, putting up 17-3-4. Bane has smash potential tonight.

Donovan Mitchell Out: Without Mitchell tonight, it’s likely Ingles ($5,600 DK and $5,500 FD) who gets the biggest value boost; he almost always starts when a starter is missing, and he usually plays well in those games with his increased offensive role. Tonight should be no different, especially against a fast-paced, below average defense (MEM).

Bagley Out, Whiteside Questionable: If Whiteside sits again, Holmes ($7,500 DK and $8,000 FD) once again becomes a great play. He’s locked in for 30+ minutes and had 23-3-12 last game.

Lavine, White Questionable, Temple Doubtful: If Lavine sits, I like Vucevic ($9,100 DK and $8,800 FD), who would theoretically become the primary scorer for the Bulls. White was out last game, so if he sits it wouldn’t be that big of a deal, but make sure you keep an eye on him because if he plays, he probably slightly decreases the values of guys like Satoransky and Arcidiacono.

3/31 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Joe Ingles (5,600 DK and 5,500 FD)

Without Mitchell in the lineup tonight, it’s virtually a foregone conclusion that Ingles will get the start; he always gets the start whenever any of the starters (besides Gobert) sit. In addition to the fact that he should see increased minutes and usage, he’s going up against a MEM team that plays at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA and gives up more points than average to opposing teams.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Gary Trent Jr. ($5,100 DK & $4,700 FD)

There’s a chance Trent Jr. is my favorite play on the slate tonight. He was already the runaway leader in minutes last time out for the Raptors (38 minutes & 32.5 DK points), and should only see additional usage tonight with Lowry being ruled out. He draws an excellent matchup against a beat down OKC team, and the Raptors are in MUST WIN territory if they want to start making a playoff push. At $5,100 Trent feels like both a solid GPP & Cash look tonight in a game where he likely sees 30-35 minutes and puts up 10-15 shots.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/31 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Victor Oladipo (MIA)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Killian Hayes (DET)
  • Rodney McGruder (DET)
  • Nassir Little (POR)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
  • JJ Redick (DAL)
  • Lamarcus Aldridge (BKN)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • Juwan Morgan (UTA)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Lonnie Walker (SAS)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Frank Kaminsky (PHO)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
  • Bobby Portis (MIL)
  • PJ Tucker (MIL)

      Questionable Players:

      • Jeremy Lamb (Q) - IND
      • Doug McDermott (Q) - IND
      • Kendrick Nunn (Q) - MIA
      • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
      • Landry Shamet (Q) - BKN
      • Josh Okogie (Q) - MIN
      • Derrick Rose (Q) - NYK
      • Jahmi’us Ramsey (Q) - SAC

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        Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!