NBA DFS Analytics: March 28th


Announcements

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Quick Hitters (3/28)

- Today's main slate features 3 games. nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is POR v TOR at 231.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v LAL at 208.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Lillard Questionable, Little, Collins Out: If Lillard sits, I think you have to consider getting either CJ ($8,000 DK and $7,900 FD) or Powell ($6,600 DK and $7,500 FD) into your lineup. I especially like Powell, who’s going up against his old team that traded him  just a few days ago. TOR is also the worst team in the NBA at guarding SG/SF, so Powell has a nice looking matchup tonight.

Bembry, McCaw, Watson Out: Not much news here. Something to look for is Gary Trent and Rodney Hood in some of their first games as Raptors (they’re also playing against their old team). I don’t love these guys tonight, though, because it’s unclear how they will fit into the TOR rotation.

Gary Harris, Teague, Isaac Out, Ross Questionable: The Magic will have 3 new players in their lineup tonight (Hampton, Carter, Porter) from trades. As is the case with the Raptors, it’s unclear what the roles of these guys will be, especially in their first action with the team. For this reason, I don’t like anyone on the Magic tonight, especially against the Lakers (who are the second best scoring defense in the NBA).

3/28 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Nikola Jokic (10,400 DK and 11,300 FD)

Jokic is the highest priced player on both slates tonight, and for good reason. He’s playing against the Hawks, who are really bad against players with Jokic’s player profile. We have Jokic projected at around 45% ownership, which would make it really tough to take home money in a cash lineup if you fade him. 

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (3,900 DK and 4,800 FD)

KCP is very cheap tonight and is locked in for starter minutes as he always is. With the amount of time that he’ll get tonight, all it takes is him getting a little bit hot from three to return great value. I like the chances of it happening, too, because ORL is terrible at guarding 3 point shooters like KCP.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/28 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Jalen Harris (ATL)
  • Kris Dunn (ATL)
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • Lou Williams (ATL)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)

    Questionable Players:

    • Deandre Hunter (Q) - ATL

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      Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!