NBA DFS Analytics: March 26th


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QUICK HITTERS (3/26)

- Today's main slate features 11 games. LAL, MIA, POR, GS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BOS v. MIL at 234.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CLE v. LAL at 219 points.

NEED TO KNOW

KD, Kyrie, Shamet Out, Harden Questionable: If Harden ($10,800 DK and $11,300 FD) plays, I think you have to get him into your lineup; without KD and Kyrie, he should absolutely pop off, not to mention he’s coming off some much-needed rest. I also like Alize Johnson ($5,100 DK and $3,500 FD), who had a coming out party last time out with 23-3-15 in 33 (!) minutes. I ESPECIALLY like him on FD, where he’s blasphemously underpriced.

Thompson, Semi Out, Theis, Teague, Green Traded: The Theis move makes room for Robert Williams ($6,400 DK and $6,000 FD) to get the presumed starting Center position, something he has earned with his play this season. I love his chances of returning value tonight as he should have one of his highest-minute nights of the season.

Bembry, McCaw, Watson Out, Powell, Davis, Thomas Traded: Without all these guys tonight, I expect a lot of Raptors players to see more minutes than they usually do; that being said, I like OG ($6,200 DK and $6,700 FD), who’s slightly underpriced and should see more minutes at the wing position. I also would like whoever gets the start in Powell’s place - I’m very unsure of who that’ll be at this point, but I could see multiple guys getting it (Boucher, Baynes, Watanabe, etc).

Gordon, Nwaba Out, Porter Questionable, Oladipo trade: The Oladipo trade makes some room for the Rockets two top guys, Wood ($8,400 DK and $7,700 FD) and Wall ($8,300 DK and $8,200 FD), who will see increased usage without Oladipo on the team. I think both guys have good nights tonight against a MIN team that plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and is the 3rd worst defense as well.

Dragic, Oladipo, Bjelica Out, Butler Questionable: If Butler doesn’t play again, I absolutely love Bam ($8,200 DK and $8,000 FD), who went for 29-7-9 last game without Butler. I think you also have to consider Herro ($5,600 DK and $5,200 FD), who put up 29-8-4 last game without Jimmy and is a huge momentum player (meaning he might build on that strong performance tonight).

Ross, Harris, Porter, Isaac, Carter, Hampton, Teague Out, Vucevic, Fournier, Aminu, Gordon, Clark Traded: The Magic have literally no one playing for them tonight. I think you have to look at MCW ($6,600 DK and $5,500 FD) and Bacon ($4,800 DK and $4,700 FD), who might have to be the primary playmakers for this ORL team (never thought I would utter those words). I am definitely scared of a blowout, but I’m not even sure if ORL will have enough guys to play “scrubs” in the late minutes if they’re down, so I like virtually anyone who puts on a Magic uniform tonight.

Lillard Out, Powell Questionable, Trent, Hood Traded: Without Lillard in the lineup, and with Powell unlikely to play, I really like CJ ($7,700 DK and $7,500 FD) to go off again. The only issue with this game is it could potentially be a blowout, in which case CJ would sit a lot of the 4th I would imagine. 

Redick, Melli, Cauley-Stein Out, Luka Doubtful: With Luka unlikely to play, you have to heavily consider putting Brunson ($4,500 DK and $4,800 FD) in your lineup; he’s very cheap and will likely get the start in Luka’s absence, not to mention he’s in a pace up matchup against a poor defensive IND team.

Prince, Love, Dellavedova Out, Sexton Questionable: If Sexton sits, I think you have to consider getting Garland ($6,800 DK and $6,500 FD) in your lineup, even though he’s in a tough matchup against a really good LAL defense. He would be the primary playmaker again tonight, and put up 22-9-4 in 37 minutes last game without Sexton.

3/26 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Robert Williams (6,400 DK and 6,000 FD)

With Tristan still out due to Covid Protocols and Theis being shipped off to CHI, I love Robert Williams tonight. He will presumably get the start (his first of the season), and should see perhaps his largest workload of the season minutes-wise. He’s been playing unbelievably well as of late, and he’s just waiting to explode in his new role, which he’ll get an opportunity to do tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Trae Young ($9,100 DK & $8,700 FD)

I know I was on Young a couple nights ago, but I think he’s a great play again tonight against a Golden State team that plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the entire NBA. Golden State just gave up a ridiculous 44 points to De’Aaron Fox last night, and Young is coming off an excellent 29-9-3 line. I think he smashes value tonight and is severely underpriced at just $9,100.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/26 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Killian Hayes (DET)

  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • James Johnson (NOP)
  • Malik Beasley (MIN)
  • Josh Okogie (MIN)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)
  • Zach Collins (POR)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • Lou Williams (ATL)

    Questionable Players:

    • Hamidou Diallo (P) - DET

    • Rodney McGruder (P) - DET
    • Dennis Smith (Q) - DET
    • Bryn Forbes (P) - MIL
    • PJ Tucker (D) - MIL
    • Mikal Bridges (P) - PHO
    • Lonzo Ball (D) - NOP
    • Jordan McLaughlin (Q) - MIN
    • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
    • De’Andre Hunter (P) - ATL
    • Draymond Green (Q) - GSW

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      Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!