NBA DFS Analytics: March 25th


Announcements

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QUICK HITTERS (3/25)

- Today's main slate features 5 games. LAC, SAC, SA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is GS v SAC at 226.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHi V LAL at 215.5 points

NEED TO KNOW

 Make sure you follow the trade news today. Every single player who gets traded today (March 25th) is unlikely to play. And since there have been lots of trades today, there is a solid amount of value to be found on the teams where players are being traded from. Even though the deadline ended at 3:00, deals will continue to be released throughout the day, so it’s important to stay updated.

 

Dragic, Butler, Questionable, Bradley, Olynyk Traded: If Jimmy sits, I would really like Bam ($8,000 DK and FD), who would see a large increase in his offensive usage. He’s also going up against a POR team who is the 7th worst team in the league at guarding Centers and lets up the 4th most points to opposing teams. I think you have to look at Jimmy ($9,000 DK and $9,500 FD) also (if he plays), because he gets TONS of value from his player profile as a result of POR’s inability to guard players who can get to the hoop. Additionally, with Olynyk being traded, that should increase Bam’s minutes as well.

Steph Curry Out: I’ve liked Jordan Poole ($6,100 DK and $6,200 FD) since Curry has been out, and I continue to like him tonight; he’s been starting and playing tons of minutes (39 2 nights ago - most on team), and he’s in a great matchup against a SAC team that gives up the second most points in the NBA and is the second to last team in the league at defending point guards. 

Bagley Out, Cory Joseph Traded (Delon Wright Questionable): The Joseph/Wright Swap likely opens up some more minutes at the PG position tonight for the Kings; I doubt Wright plays tonight, and if he does, he probably won’t play too much as it’ll be his first day with the team and he definitely doesn’t know the offense yet. I therefore  really like Fox ($8,700 DK and $8,900 FD), who should get more minutes tonight and is in an excellent matchup against a Warriors team that plays at the second fastest pace in the league, gives up the 9th most points to opposing NBA teams, and is terrible at guarding players like Fox. 

Seth Curry, Danny Green Questionable, Embiid Out, Bradley Traded: With the Bradley trade tonight, I absolutely love Dwight Howard ($5,500 DK and $5,400 FD), who should get tons of minutes and is playing against his old team tonight. With the amount of minutes he’ll get and how cheap he is, I love Howard’s chance of returning value.

Trent, Hood Traded: This deal opens up some bench minutes for a few guys. I like Carmelo ($5,000 DK and $5,200 FD) a lot, who should see an increase in his minutes without their 6th man, Gary Trent. I also like Simons ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who I could actually see getting a solid number of minutes tonight, not to mention he’s the price minimum on both sites.

3/25 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Dwight Howard ($5,500 DK & $5,400 FD)

With the news that Tony Bradley has been traded, I expect Dwight to see extra minutes tonight. He has been an excellent points per minute performer this year and now finds himself against a depleted Lakers frontcourt. Even if he doesn't start, he has been excellent off the bench this year and at just $5,500, I think he manages to return value pretty easily.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Hassan Whiteside ($4,000 DK & $4,300 FD)

Even with so many great center options on tonight's slate, I think Whiteside may just be my favorite. He is a ridiculous point per minute fantasy performer and with the news that Bjelicia has been traded, may just step into a few extra minutes tonight. Even better, he's up against a Warriors second unit that doesn't have a chance of defending him or competing with him on the boards. I'm not confident enough in his minutes to throw him in cash lineups, but I do think he has 6-7X potential and is a really strong look for GPPs.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/25 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Reggie Bullock (NYK)
  • Davis Bertans (WAS)
  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Patrick Beverley (LAC)
  • Serge Ibaka (LAC)
  • Lonnie Walker (SAS)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Lebron James (LAL)

Questionable Players:

  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Nerlens Noel (P) - NYK
  • Elfrid Payton (P) - NYK

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!