NBA DFS Analytics: March 23rd


Announcements

1) We are taking our player spotlight to a new level! Instead of just offering you one single player, we will now be providing 2-3 core plays for both Cash AND GPP lineups! You can find this new section beneath our 'Need to Know' section. These players are also incorporated into our optimizers under the cash/GPP locks! Let's do some winning! As a part of our free newsletter we will offer 1 cash core play and 1 GPP core play. Our full cores are available as a part of our AC Plus membership!

2) If you're looking for even more NBA DFS content, we highly suggest our brand new AC Plus membership. You can start a completely free 1 week trial today to try out our optimizers, tools and projections for yourself! 

Learn more about what you get as an Analytic City Plus Member!

QUICK HITTERS (3/23)

- Today's main slate features 6 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v. POR at 231.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHO v. MIA at 215.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Lebron, AD Out: Without Lebron, the Lakers will once again have to find players who can facilitate and score. Montrezl ($6,800 DK and $7,500 FD) is definitely hard to look away from at the C position for the Lakers. He’s been playing very well as of late in his increased offensive role and is playing against a really bad NOP defense tonight (5th worst in the NBA). I also like Kuzma ($6,800 DK and $6,500 FD), who also has a great matchup against a Pelicans team that is the worst in the NBA at guarding Small Forwards.

Lonzo Ball Questionable: If Lonzo Ball sits again, I would like Alexander-Walker ($4,400 DK and $4,900 FD); he got the start a couple nights ago in place of Lonzo and put up 20-1-3 in 31 minutes, so I like him to do something similar tonight. Make sure you keep an eye on Lonzo’s status as it gets closer to game time.

Robinson, Quickley probable, Payton Questionable, Rivers Out: There are lots of guys I like on the Knicks tonight due to the fact that they’re playing against the worst defense and highest paced team in the NBA (Wizards). I think Reggie Bullock ($4,900 DK and $4,600 FD) brings the most value tonight, though; he’s extremely cheap and led his team in minutes played at 47 in their last game (overtime game). He’s also playing against a WAS team that is terrible at guarding players like Bullock - everything is pointing towards him returning value tonight. You should consider stacking Knicks players tonight.

KD, Kyrie, Shamet Out, Harden Questionable: If Harden ($11,000 DK and $11,300 FD) plays tonight, I think it’s really tough to not include him in your lineup; virtually every time Kyrie doesn’t play, Harden has a 40-10-10 night, and he has a great chance for one of those Houston-esque nights tonight against a POR team that gives up the 4th most points in the NBA.

Steph Curry Out, Paschal, Wiseman Probable: Without Curry, the Warriors have had to rely on other guys to score, namely Wiggins ($6,600 DK and $6,800 FD) and Poole ($5,600 DK and $6,500 FD). I expect both of these guys (who are still slightly underpriced) to continue their solid stretches against a PHI team that plays at the 5th highest pace in the NBA and should play even faster without Embiid in the lineup.

Seth Curry, Embiid Out: Without these guys, Tobias ($8,500 DK and $8,800 FD) has really picked up the offensive slack for this PHI team. I expect him to do the same tonight against the Warriors, who are the worst team in the NBA at guarding PF’s and play at the second fastest pace.

3/23 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

James Harden ($11,000 DK & $11,300 FD) 

Harden is currently questionable, but he’s basically a must play in cash lineups with KD and Kyrie out if he goes. He went for over 80 DK points the last time KD & Kyrie sat, and is up against a POR team that ranks 5th worst in the entire NBA at defending the PG position. If Harden sits, my favorite BKN chalk play probably becomes Bruce Brown, who I think has the next best chance of creating his own shot and would likely step into a 30+ minute role.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Julius Randle ($9,900 DK & $10,000 FD)

I have a nice 2 step process when deciding whether or not to play a star in NBA DFS. First I ask myself “Are they playing Washington?” If the answer is yes, then I play them… If the answer is no, then I do more research. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, ranks dead last in points allowed per game, and ranks towards the bottom in salary adjusted DvP to literally every single position. Randle is really expensive tonight, but I think that could play to your advantage and allow you to snag him at low-ish ownership (projected at ~15%).

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/23 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Gary Harris (DEN)

  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)
  • Mo Bamba (ORL)
  • Jared Dudley (LAL)
  • JJ Redick (NOP)
  • Davis Bertans (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Jusuf Nurkic (POR)

Questionable Players:

  • Greg Whittington (Q) - DEN

  • Chasson Randle (Q) - ORL
  • Terrence Ross (Q) - ORL
  • Avery Bradley (Q) - MIA
  • Goran Dragic (Q) - MIA
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Abdel Nader (P) - PHO

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!