NBA DFS Analytics: March 21st


Announcements

1) We are taking our player spotlight to a new level! Instead of just offering you one single player, we will now be providing 2-3 core plays for both Cash AND GPP lineups! You can find this new section beneath our 'Need to Know' section. These players are also incorporated into our optimizers under the cash/GPP locks! Let's do some winning! As a part of our free newsletter we will offer 1 cash core play and 1 GPP core play. Our full cores are available as a part of our AC Plus membership!

2) If you're looking for even more NBA DFS content, we highly suggest our brand new AC Plus membership. You can start a completely free 1 week trial today to try out our optimizers, tools and projections for yourself! 

Learn more about what you get as an Analytic City Plus Member!

QUICK HITTERS (3/21)

- Today's main slate features 6 games. LAL and PHI are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v BKN at 248 points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHI v NYK at 213 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Diallo, Ellington, Hayes, McGruder Out: With these guys out for multiple games in a row (at least) now, the prices for this DET team have adjusted accordingly. DET is very balanced on the offensive end, and any of the guards/wings on their team can on any given night score 5 points or 25 points, which makes each of them a scary look. One guy I like is Stewart ($4,400 DK and $4,100 FD); he’s cheap, guaranteed for at least 18 minutes (with a possibility for a lot more if he plays well), and in a great matchup against a fast-paced, poor defensive CHI team that is bad at guarding players like Stewart.

Love, Prince Out, Dellavadova, Mcgee Questionable: Delly is a non-factor, but Mcgee sitting would be big for Jarrett Allen ($7,500 DK and $6,300 FD). Allen would be in for probably 35+ minutes against a TOR team that isn’t great at guarding players like himself. Nance ($5,800 DK and $5,300 FD) could also be a solid, cheap find, especially with what would likely be a larger offensive role without Mcgee. If Mcgee sits again, you have to consider one of these guys.

KD still Out, Jeff Green, Blake Griffin Probable: If anything, Griffin returning would only decrease the value of guys like Jordan, Green, Claxton, Brown, etc. But, BKN is in an unbelievable matchup against the fastest paced and worst defense in the NBA (WAS), so it’s tough to not get either Irving ($9,500 DK and $9,100 FD) or Harden ($10,900 DK and $11,300 FD) in your lineup; one (or both) of them is bound to absolutely pop off, barring a large blowout. 

Bertans Out: Just like BKN, WAS is also a fast-paced (8th fastest), poor defensive (4th worst) team, so this should be a VERY high scoring game. Keep in mind that Westbrook ($10,700 DK and $11,100 FD) is coming off a MONSTER triple double and is playing against his old teammate, James Harden, whom he always brings it against. I also like Rui ($5,800 DK and $4,900 FD) again, who’s priced too cheap on both sites (ESPECIALLY FD), and is playing against a BKN team that is the 8th worst team in the NBA against PF/C.

Payton, Quickley, Robinson Questionable, Rose, Rivers Out: I don’t think these guys potentially being out really impacts much for this NY team. This game is bound to be a low scoring game (best defense in NBA against 7th best defense in NBA), and the prices for Burks, Ntilikina, etc have already adjusted to Payton and Quickley being out. Look to potentially fade this game, ESPECIALLY if any of the questionable guys play.

Seth Curry, Embiid Out, Simmons Questionable: If Simmons sits, I love Tobias ($8,600 DK and $8,300 FD), who should continue his excellent play without Embiid in the lineup (29-8-11 last night). Besides Tobias, though, I think PHI could really struggle without (potentially) their 2 best players and against the best defensive team in the NBA.

Lebron, AD, Gasol Out: Wow. With Lebron out for some serious time, some of the periphery guys on the Lakers will really have to step up their scoring and playmaking roles. I think you have to look at some of these Lakers guys tonight despite their bad matchup against the Suns (4th best defense and 5th slowest pace). I think Schroder ($6,900 DK and $6,100 FD) probably gains the most value as a result of Bron’s injury; he’s locked in for 35+ minutes and he’s playing against his old teammate, CP3, who he knows well and will potentially be able to exploit.

3/21 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

James Harden ($10,900 DK & $11,300 FD)

I'm going to have a really tough time fading Harden in any lineup tonight, but especially in cash. You can't really ask for a better matchup for a player who has been as dominant as they get in DFS this year. The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA, rank dead last in points allowed, and are the worst team in the league at defending the PG position. Get Harden in your cash lineups tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Delon Wright ($5,900 DK & $6,200 FD)

I can't really justify selecting any expensive players as GPP locks tonight, because I think they are all significantly worse plays then both Harden and Westbrook; And we project both Harden's and Westbrook's ownership to be over 30%. One mid-tier guy I really do like though is Delon Wright. He has a great matchup against Chicago (who rank 4th worst in the league at defending the PG position) and I am hoping people forget his near triple double just 2 games ago. Even in an off game last time out he still exceeded 25 DK points, so I like the idea of finding some room for him in your lineups tonight.

 For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/21 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Garrett Temple (CHI)
  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
  • James Johnson (DAL)
  • Jusef Nurkic (POR)

Questionable Players:

  • Torrey Craig (Q) - PHO

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!