NBA DFS Analytics: March 20th


Announcements

1) We are taking our player spotlight to a new level! Instead of just offering you one single player, we will now be providing 2-3 core plays for both Cash AND GPP lineups! You can find this new section beneath our 'Need to Know' section. These players are also incorporated into our optimizers under the cash/GPP locks! Let's do some winning! As a part of our free newsletter we will offer 1 cash core play and 1 GPP core play. Our full cores are available as a part of our AC Plus membership!

2) If you're looking for even more NBA DFS content, we highly suggest our brand new AC Plus membership. You can start a completely free 1 week trial today to try out our optimizers, tools and projections for yourself! 

Learn more about what you get as an Analytic City Plus Member!

QUICK HITTERS (3/20)

- Today's main slate features 4 games. MEM, GS, SAC & SA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CHA v LAC at 232.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is GS v MEM at 220.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Paschal, Wiseman, Looney Out, Curry Doubtful: Without Curry last night, Andrew Wiggins ($6,300 DK and $5,200 FD) absolutely went off for 40-4-8. I like him again tonight without Curry and with a banged up Oubre. I also think Draymond Green ($7,400 DK and $6,600 FD) gets tons of big-man minutes today; without Looney and Wiseman, GS will need Draymond to step up tonight.

Seth Curry, Joel Embiid Out: Without Embiid in the lineup, I like Dwight Howard ($6,000 DK and $5,000 FD) to get most of the big-man minutes tonight, and I really like his matchup against the second worst defense in the NBA. I also like Tobias ($8,800 DK and $8,300 FD) to pick up the scoring load for the sixers; he should have a big night against a SAC team that isn’t great at guarding players like Harris. I also like whoever starts in Seth Curry’s place tonight - very up in the air who that’ll be.

Marvin Bagley Out: I like Richaun Holmes ($7,300 DK and $7,100 FD) again tonight; he should get the majority of the big man minutes against a depleted PHI front court. I also like Fox ($9,500 DK and $9,200 FD) a lot tonight, who’s going up against a PHI team that is TERRIBLE at guarding players like Fox.

Cody Zeller Out: Without Zeller, I think Bismack ($3,300 DK and $3,600 FD) probably gets the start and plays a solid amount of minutes. I don’t think he’s a great play, though, because he’s playing against an excellent Clippers defense that plays at a very slow pace.

3/20 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Damion Lee ($3,400 DK & $3,500 FD)

Lee went absolutely off last night, and if Curry sits, he comes in as probably my favorite play on the slate. It’s not often you can find a guy who just put up 14 shots and scored 21 points at $3,400, and barring any significant injury news, I see no reason his role should change tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Paul George ($8,300 DK & $7,60 FD)

George is probably my favorite top tier play of the night. He went for 28-7-5 while taking 20 shots last time out, and now draws an amazing matchup against a Charlotte team that ranks 4th worst in the NBA at defending SG’s. The fact that he is $1,000 cheaper than Leonard means he should see some pretty high ownership (we have him projected at 32%), but I think he absolutely has the potential to be one of the night's top scorers and is drastically underpriced.

 For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/20 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Patrick Beverley (LAC)

Questionable Players:

  • Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
  • Serge Ibaka (LAC)

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!