NBA DFS Analytics: March 19th


NBA DFS

Announcements

1) We are taking our player spotlight to a new level! Instead of just offering you one single player, we will now be providing 2-3 core plays for both Cash AND GPP lineups! You can find this new section beneath our 'Need to Know' section. These players are also incorporated into our optimizers under the cash/GPP locks! Let's do some winning! As a part of our free newsletter we will offer 1 cash core play and 1 GPP core play. Our full cores are available as a part of our AC Plus membership!

2) If you're looking for even more NBA DFS content, we highly suggest our brand new AC Plus membership. You can start a completely free 1 week trial today to try out our optimizers, tools and projections for yourself! 

Learn more about what you get as an Analytic City Plus Member!

QUICK HITTERS (3/19)

- Today's main slate features 10 games. MIN, ORL, PHO, POR & UTA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BOS v SAC at 234.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIA v IND at 215.5 points.

 NEED TO KNOW

Tristan Thompson Out: Without Tristan, I like Rob Williams ($5,800 DK and $5,700 FD) A LOT; he’s coming off the most minutes he’s played in a single game the entire season, and they’re playing against a SAC team that allows the second most points in the NBA to opposing teams. The Kings also struggle against players like Rob Williams, so I expect him to play well.

Marvin Bagley Out: Without Bagley, it’s probably Holmes ($7,100 DK and FD) who gains the most value; however, with Whiteside back in the rotation and in a tough matchup against a Boston team that is good against Centers, I don’t love Holmes that much tonight.

Michael Carter-Williams, Ross Questionable, Fournier Probable: I don’t like a lot of guys on ORL tonight; they’ve been struggling as a team lately (haven’t scored over 100 points in the last 3 games) and they play at a below average pace. The guy I like the most would be Vucevic ($9,900 DK and $9,700 FD), who should bounce back after his 17 point outing last night - he’ll be going up against a BKN team that is bad at guarding players like Vuc.

Diallo, Ellington, McGruder, Hayes Out: Without these guys last game, Delon Wright ($6,000 DK and $5,600 FD) put up 18-8-10 in 38 minutes; he’s finally getting his groove back after his injury, and I expect him to continue that tonight against a fast-paced HOU team that is TERRIBLE at guarding players like himself. Besides Wright, I like most guys on this DET team tonight; HOU plays at the 5th fastest pace in the league and gives up the 8th most points. You should consider stacking this Pistons team if you aren’t scared off by the blowout potential, which I’m not.

Gordon, Nwaba Out, Wall, McLemore Questionable: I don’t see much value on this HOU team despite them having a lot of missing pieces. They’ve lost their last 18 (!) games, and they’re playing against the Pistons, who are an above average defensive team. The one guy I like would be Victor Oladipo ($8,300 DK and $8,100 FD), but I would only like him if Wall were to sit. 

Wiseman, Paschal Out, Oubre, Curry Doubtful: With Curry likely out, I love Nico Mannion ($3,200 DK and $3,500 FD), who’s been playing a lot since all star break and is gaining confidence by the day; I bet he gets the start tonight and plays a lot of minutes. Another guy I like a lot is Jordan Poole ($4,500 DK and $4,600 FD). He put up 23-2-1 last time out and should be even more aggressive without Oubre and Curry in the lineup.

Rudy Gobert Questionable: If Gobert were to sit, I would LOVE Favors ($3,200 DK and $3,500 FD); he would likely get the start and play a lot of minutes at the Center position. He’s also in a good matchup against a TOR team that isn’t great at guarding players like Favors. I would be slightly worried about TOR (and subsequently UTA) going small, but I still think Favors gets enough minutes to return value.

3/19 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Thaddeus Young ($6,100 DK & $6,600 FD)

In case you haven’t noticed, Thad Young is REALLY good at basketball. He absolutely fills up the stat sheet and continues to be underpriced. The Bulls are finally starting to play him more (31 minutes last game) and he has continued to deliver. Last time out against the Nuggets, the Bulls trusted him to play 28 minutes off the bench; I think he exceeds that tonight and finds himself in an excellent spot to return value at what should be low ownership (projected just under 10%).

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Delon Wright ($6,000 DK & $5,600 FD)

Delon has been excellent since the all star break, and fell 2 assists shy of a triple double in a masterful performance last time out against the Raptors. He now draws a matchup against a Houston team that is without essentially its entire starting lineup. I absolutely love his chances of smashing value in a game that should stay close and where we have him projected to play 35.6 minutes.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/19 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Romeo Langford (BOS)
  • Kevin Love (CLE)
  • Taureen Prince (CLE)
  • Lamarcus Aldridge (SAS)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)
  • Blake Griffin (BKN)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)
  • James Ennis (ORL)
  • Avery Bradley (MIA)
  • Udoka Azubuike (UTA)
  • Garrett Temple (CHI)
  • Gary Harris (DEN)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL)
  • James Johnson (DAL)
  • Malik Beasley (MIN)
  • Jordan McLaughlin (MIN)

Questionable Players:

  • Kyrie Irving (P) - BKN
  • Jeremy Lamb (Q) - IND
  • Jakarr Sampson (Q) - IND
  • Andre Igoudala (Q) - MIA
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Cam Johnson (Q) - PHO
  • Jarrett Culver (Q) - MIN

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!