NBA DFS Analytics: March 17th


Announcements

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Quick Hitters (3/17)

- Today's main slate features 10 games, BOS, CLE, CHI, HOU, MIA, PHI are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v SAC at 248 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CLE v. BOS at 214 points.

 NEED TO KNOW

Kyrie, KD, Griffin Out: Without these guys in the lineup, I LOVE James Harden (10,900 DK and 11,000 FD). His usage is going to be ridiculous tonight; I could see him legitimately putting up 40-10-10 just like in his HOU days.

Joel Embiid Out: Without Embiid in the lineup again, I expect Tobias Harris ($8,400 DK and $7,800 FD) to pick up the scoring load like he did yesterday (he put up 30-2-6). The Bucks play at a super fast pace (7th fastest), so it should be even a better matchup for Harris than yesterday. In terms of Bradley and Howard, the prices seem to have adjusted, making them both lower value plays, especially against a Bucks team that is great against big men.

Bagley Out, Whiteside Questionable: Without Bagley, I love Holmes ($6,700 DK and $6,900 FD) to get tons of minutes and have a huge game. Even if Whiteside plays, I doubt he gets a lot of minutes considering how long he’s been out for. Besides Holmes, I like EVERY starter on this SAC team tonight; they all play tons of minutes, and this game has the highest expected point total of the night due to the fast paces at which these teams play. Definitely should consider stacking this game. 

Diallo, Hayes Out, Mcgruder, Ellington Doubtful, Smith Questionable: Lots of news to keep track of here, but one guy I like as a result of it is Josh Jackson ($5,100 DK and $4,900 FD); he gets TONS of value from his player profile, and he should see a lot of minutes without these guys in the lineup. If Smith plays, though, I like Jackson a lot less, so keep an eye on the later injury reports.

VanVleet, Siakam, Flynn, McCaw, OG Questionable: If Pascal and Fred are out again, I still like Norman Powell ($7,500 DK and $7,700 FD), who gets TONS of value from his player profile tonight and would see a lot of scoring opportunities. However, if the Raps have their guys back, I don’t see much value in this game against a Pistons team that is above average defensively.

Tristan, Walker Out: Without Tristan tonight, I like Theis ($4,100 DK and $4,400 FD) and Robert Williams ($5,600 DK and FD) a lot. They should roughly split the big man minutes against a BIG team that plays Jarrett Allen and Javale McGee at the Center position. I think Tatum ($9,200 DK and $9,000 FD) gets the biggest value boost from Kemba being out; he should see a slight uptick in his shot attempts and usage without Walker running the offense, and he’s coming off a big night (29-3-6).

Tucker, Nwaba, Gordon, Wall, Oladipo Out, Wood, House, McLemore Questionable: The Rockets are THIN tonight. Kevin Porter ($6,800 DK and $6,300 FD) looks to be a great play as he should have the green light to do a lot of the scoring for HOU tonight. To be honest, I like virtually every guy on HOU tonight (Martin Jr, Jones, Brown). Even in a blowout, they should all get tons of minutes and opportunities to take shots, especially against a GS team that plays at the second fastest pace in the NBA.

Jimmy Butler Questionable: If Jimmy doesn’t play tonight, it would open up some scoring opportunities for other MIA guys, especially Bam ($8,400 DK and $8,300 FD); he’s finally getting comfortable after coming back from his absence, and MEM plays at the 11th fastest pace in the league, so he should have slightly more opportunities than usual.

Beverely Out, Ibaka Questionable: Not too much value to be found on this Clippers team tonight as they are playing against the 5th slowest team in the league (DAL). I don’t hate Zubac ($4,500 DK and FD), though, who would likely get the start without Ibaka in the lineup.

3/17 Core Plays

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

3/17 CASH Core: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor. We’re not nearly as concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a player has high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Richaun Holmes ($6,700 DK & $7,000 FD) 

We have Holmes as our #2 value play of the night. He scored an incredible 57.5 DK points last time out and should see 35+ minutes tonight with Bagley out of the lineup. Washington also plays at the highest pace in the NBA; simply put, you need Holmes in your lineup tonight. We project him at 40% ownership, and not having him in a cash lineup will leave you in a near impossible position if he does perform.

 3/17 GPP Core:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. Here, we want guys who have low ownership, and/or high upside (a chance for a huge game). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Robert Williams ($5,600 DK & FD)

With Thompson out again tonight, most people will probably look to Theis, who is significantly cheaper ($4,100 DK & $4,400 FD) and had a great performance last night. I think Theis is a great look don’t get me wrong, but Williams has been a RIDICULOUS point per minute performer this season, and is likely to be the lesser owned of the two Celtics bigs. If he gets anywhere in the 25-30 minute range tonight, I think he has easy 6-7X potential against a Cavs team that gives up the 9th most offensive rebounds per game in the NBA.

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

3/17 Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Romeo Langford (BOS)
  • Taureen Prince (CLE)
  • Andre Drummond (CLE)
  • Garrett Temple (CHI)
  • Lamarcus Aldridge (SAS)
  • Demar Derozan (SAS)
  • Gary Harris (DEN)
  • RJ Hampton (DEN)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • Avery Bradley (MIA)
  • Andre Igoudala (MIA)
  • James Johnson (DAL)

Questionable Players:

  • Jeremy Lamb (Q) - IND
  • Robert Woodard (Q) - SAC
  • Raul Neto (Q) - WAS
  • Kevin Love (Q) - CLE
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (D) - DAL

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!