NBA DFS Analytics: March 15th


NBADFSNBM15

Announcements

What’s up everyone! Thanks for tuning in! If you're looking for even more NBA DFS content, we highly suggest our brand new AC Plus membership. You can start a completely free 1 week trial today to try out our optimizers, tools and projections for yourself! 

 Learn more about what you get as an Analytic City Plus Member!

Quick Hitters (3/15)

- Today's main slate features 8 games, GS, LAC, SA & MEM are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v CHA at 239 points. The game with the lowest over/under is SA v DET at 221.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Bertans, Neto Questionable: This isn’t huge news, but it has potential to open up some value for the Wizards players. Westbrook ($10,500 DK and $10,200 FD) is coming off a monster performance (42-12-10) and would likely see a slight uptick in his minutes if Neto were to sit. Both the Bucks and Wizards play at a very fast pace and are poor defensive teams, so this should be a shootout. 

Rose, Rivers, Robinson Out, Payton Doubtful, Quickley probable: Lots of news coming out of New York today, but it all boils down to the Kicks being really slim in the backcourt. This bodes well for Quickley ($5,600 DK and $4,600 FD) and Bullock ($3,500 DK and $3,500 FD), who should both see solid minutes and scoring opportunities against a fast-paced, poor defensive BKN team. On a night where there aren’t a ton of cheap value plays, I don’t hate reaching for a guy like Bullock, who played 37 minutes last game and went for 14-2-1. 

Smith, Diallo, Hayes Out, Ellington Doubtful: Likely without Ellington, I really like Rodney McGruder ($3,400 DK and $3,500 FD) tonight; he’s very underpriced, and with the minutes (and possible start) he’ll get without Ellington in the lineup, I think he has a great chance of returning value and is one of the best cheap plays on the slate. Our model currently has McGruder ranked as the second best projected +- play. 

Aldridge, Derozan Out: This has been the case for a few games now, and the prices have adjusted for the most part. Truthfully, I would be scared of a lot of the Spurs guys tonight; they’re playing a slow-paced and defensively strong DET team, and they have seemed to develop one of the more confusing rotations in the league, with different guys performing nightly and frequent opportunities being given to deep bench guys.

Monte Morris Out: Without Monte Morris, there are some minutes opened up in the guard spots for DEN. Will Barton ($5,300 DK and $5,500 FD) is a guy who intrigues me; he’s really picked up the scoring load for the Nuggets while Murray has been struggling, he’s underpriced, and he’s playing against an IND team who is poor at guarding players like himself. Barton has breakout potential tonight in my opinion.

Beverley Out, Ibaka Questionable: If Ibaka sits tonight, you might want to get Zubac ($4,600 DK and $4,400 FD) into your lineup, who would probably get the start for Ibaka like he did in the second half last night. But, the Clippers (2nd slowest pace in NBA) are in a tough matchup against a DAL team which plays at the 6th slowest pace in the league. Needless to say this should be a slow-paced, and therefore probably low scoring game.

Lebron, Kuzma Probable, Gasol, Caruso, AD Out: There’s a solid amount of value to be found on this LAL team tonight. They’re playing against a Warriors squad that plays at the second fastest pace in the league and is coming off a 12 point win against the Jazz. So, I think the Warriors will look to keep up that high scoring trend and push the pace against the Lakers, which bodes well for a bunch of the LAL guys. A guy I really like is Kuzma ($6,000 DK and $5,600 FD); he’s coming off a great performance where he had 24-13-1 in 30 minutes, and since he’s a big confidence player, I expect him to keep it going (by “confidence player”, I mean a guy who plays A LOT better when he is confident and aggressive).

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 Today's Downloadable Projection Tables  

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)
  • Blake Griffin (BKN)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Gary Harris (DEN)
  • RJ Hampton (DEN)
  • Cam Johnson (PHO)

Questionable Players:

  • Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarot (P) - BKN
  • Jeremy Lamb (Q) - IND
  • James Johnson (Q) - DAL
  • Tyrell Terry (Q) - DAL

Looking for our lineup optimizer or datasheet? We've moved that over to the AC Plus page!

If you love basketball, we have an NBA blog here.