NBA DFS Analytics: March 13th


DF3/13

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Quick Hitters (3/13)

- Today's main slate features 7 games, DEN, IND & WAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v ATL at 238.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is IND v PHO at 223 points.

 

NEED TO KNOW:

Dennis Smith Out: Smith was moved to the bench last game due to the return of Delon Wright, but regardless, his absence tonight should open up some minutes and opportunities for some of the DET guards. Wayne Ellington (4,000 DK and 3,900 FD) is a cheap guy that has solid potential to return value against a BKN team that is bad at defending SG’s and lets up the 4th most points in the NBA to opposing teams. If DET wants to compete, they’ll have to get hot from deep, and Ellington is their best chance at that.

Davis Bertans Questionable: I actually like Bertans (4,300 DK and 4,900 FD) if he plays; his ownership would likely tank due to the questionable tag and he’s playing against a Bucks team that is the 4th worst team in the NBA at defending against 3 pointers. This could also bode well for Garrison Mathews (3,700 DK and 3,500 FD), who is very cheap and would likely get more minutes if Bertans sits.

OG, Pascal, Fred still Out: As has been the case for the past couple weeks, this trio is out, and Powell (7,300 DK and 7,600 FD) and Lowry (8,700 DK and 8,400 FD) will pick up the scoring load for this team. There’s also value to be found deeper in this TOR lineup; Baynes (4,500 DK and 3,900 FD) got the start last game and had 11-15 (!).

Beasley, Mclaughlin Out, Culver Doubtful: Without these guys in the lineup (Beasley specifically), the Wolves will need to find some other guys who will put the ball in the hoop. Anthony Edwards (6,500 DK and FD) sure seems primed to take over that scoring role; he put up 27-2-4 last game in 37 (!) minutes. I also love Nowell (4,600 DK and 3,600 FD), who put up 28-6-5 last game and showed flashes of being a guy the Wolves can depend on to make plays.

Monte Morris, Jokic Questionable, Green Probable: You’ll have to keep an eye on the injury report for this one, but Jokic and Morris sitting would be huge. It would open up two starting positions in the lineup, and whoever fills those roles should be a great value play. Millsap (4,600 DK and 6,000 FD) would likely get one of the spots, and I could imagine either Campazzo (3,900 DK and FD) or Dozier (4,200 DK and 3,700 FD) getting the other spot. Keep an eye on the starting lineup and make sure you seriously consider whoever takes Jokic and/or Morris’ place if they sit.

Caris Levert Probable: Levert is an excellent player, but he is not a good fantasy play tonight. He hasn’t played in a game in quite a while and will likely be on a significant minutes restriction. That being said, there isn’t much value to be had in this Indiana lineup.

Cam Johnson Out, Devin Booker Probable: If Dbook somehow doesn’t play (which is unlikely), I would get CP3 (7,600 DK and 7,100 FD) into your lineup immediately; he would become the primary playmaker. If Dbook (7,900 DK and 7,700 FD) plays, he has a really good chance of returning value; he’s underpriced and put up 35-8-5 last game out.

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 Today's Downloadable Projection Tables 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

Kevin Durant (BKN)

Blake Griffin (BKN)

Patrick McCaw (TOR)

Deandre Hunter (ATL)

Cam Reddish (ATL)

Hassan Whiteside (SAC)

CJ McCollum (POR)

Harry Giles (POR)

James Johnson (DAL)

Gary Harris (DEN)

RJ Hampton (DEN)

Questionable Players:

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (D) - BKN

Onyeka Okongwu (P) - ATL

Zeke Nnaji (P) - DEN

 

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