NBA DFS Analytics: March 12th


DFSNB 3/12

Announcements

What’s up everyone! Thanks for tuning in! If you're looking for even more NBA DFS content, we highly suggest our brand new AC Plus membership! You can start a completely free 1 week trial today to try it out yourself! 

 Learn more about what you get as an Analytic City Plus Member!

QUICK HITTERS (3/12)

- Today's main slate features 7 games, ORL, HOU, CHI, NO PHI & MIA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v PHI at 234 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v SA at 215.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW:

Garland, Love Questionable, Drummond, Prince Out: If Garland were to sit tonight, that would open up increased scoring opportunities for Sexton ($8,100 DK and $7,800 FD), who is already the primary playmaker. I also would like whoever starts in Garland’s place if he sits; my guess would be Windler ($4,200 DK and $3,500 FD), who has been playing well as of late and is the minimum price on FD.

Millsap, JaMychal Green Questionable, Harris Out: This isn’t much news considering all three of these players have been out for a while now. I wouldn’t play Green or Millsap if either one of them played; my guess is that they will be eased back into the lineup.

Simmons Out, Embiid Probable: With Simmons still out, I think Embiid ($10,700 DK and FD) likely has a monster game against a Wizards team that is terrible against Centers (and basically everyone for that matter) and plays at a very fast pace. The only concern for Embiid is the blowout potential of this game, especially with Beal questionable.

Bradley Beal Questionable: I like Beal ($9,700 DK and $10,300 FD) if he plays tonight; his questionable tag will likely plummet his ownership, and he’s coming off a bad game where he only scored 21 points, so I think he’ll be extra aggressive tonight. If Beal sits, I like Westbrook ($10,200 DK and $10,100 FD), who would be the primary ball handler and playmaker and would likely see tons of shots.

Bam Adebayo Out: Without Bam last night, Butler ($9,200 DK and $9,600 FD) put up a 27-11-8 stat line, and I expect him to do something similar again tonight against a Chicago team that lets up the 6th most points to opposing teams and plays at the 4th fastest pace. I also like Olynyk ($5,700 DK and $4,500 FD), who got the start last night and put up 20-7-2 in 35 (!) minutes (it’s also important to note that he is RIDICULOUSLY underpriced on FD).

Fournier, Gordon, Ross Out: With Ross and Fournier out last night, Dwayne Bacon ($4,200 DK & $3,500 FD) stepped into the starting role and had a fantastic game, going for 21-3-2 while playing 32 minutes. With Gordon also out tonight, I expect Bacon to again see upwards of 30 minutes. He is an obvious play on Fanduel at the site minimum price and merits strong consideration on DraftKings as well. 

Aldridge, Derozan Out: Without these two guys, the Spurs will have to find other scoring options. It’s very up in the air who will pick up the scoring tonight for SA, or if it will be balanced, but one guy I like is Derrick White ($4,900 DK and $5,400 FD); he played very poorly last game, but it was his first game back from injury and I could imagine him having a bounce back game tonight with increased minutes and opportunity.

Gordon, House, Nwaba, Wall, Oladipo Out: The Rockets have 8 players on their roster tonight, so you should look to get at least a few of them in your lineup. I like virtually every Rockets player tonight, because even if it’s a blowout (which it likely will be), they should all still get solid minutes. I especially like Kevin Porter Jr. ($3,200 DK and $4,900 FD), who has a chip on his shoulder and can really light it up when he gets it going. Another interesting look from this game is Ben McLemore ($3,500 DK & FD),  who is a knockdown 3 point shooter and should have plenty of opportunities to put up some shots tonight.

Gasol, AD Out, Kuzma, Lebron, Caruso, Jones Probable: Still without AD, I expect Lebron ($10,400 DK and $10,900 FD) to take on a significant playmaking and scoring role. I also really like Montrezl Harrell ($6,000 DK and $FD), who should see a pretty significant role tonight without two bigs in the lineup and against a Pacers team that starts Sabonis and Turner.

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 Today's Downloadable Projection Tables  

 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Garrett Temple (P) - CHI
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Jared Dudley (P) - LAL

Questionable Players:

  • JJ Redick (NOP)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)
  • James Ennis (ORL)
  • Caris Levert (IND)

 

Looking for our lineup optimizer or datasheet? We've moved that over to the AC Plus page!

If you love basketball, we have an NBA blog here.