NBA DFS Analytics: June 9th


Announcements

1) Hello everyone! Since we’re getting close to the point in the NBA season where both FD and DK no longer offer Classic Competitions, we’ve decided to revamp our Newsletter to cater to Showdown contests! Check out the brand new sections of our newsletter below… we’re super excited about them and can’t wait to bring you all some value!

2) If you’ve never played NBA dfs Showdown contests before, make sure to check out this article we wrote, we should give you a solid introduction!

3) Due to the changes to the newsletter, we will not have projection tables today, they should be back up and running once we have our ownership projections finalized. Stay tuned for updates on Twitter.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

4) Check out our blog where I'll be writing DAILY articles on the NBA playoffs and making HOT TAKES along the way.

5) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (6/9)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is DEN v PHO at 222 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DEN v PHO at 222 points.

Showdown Blueprint!

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2) Chris Paul ($13,200 DK and $13,500 FD)

CP3 looked like a different player in game 1 of the Suns’ series compared to what he looked like throughout the course of the Portland series. He was able to take a lot more pullups and threes, which is something he wasn’t really able to do against POR due to his shoulder injury. Furthermore, he looked a lot more comfortable in the pick and roll, and I expect the Suns to continue to go to that scheme in game 2 in order to target Jokic. I think CP3 is only on the rise, and you should grab him before his price tag increases even more.

3) Aaron Gordon ($11,700 DK and $10,500 FD)

I expect the Nuggets to be VERY cautious with Porter’s back injury, especially considering he’s already had 2 surgeries on it that cost him more than a year of basketball. In the case that he sits, I would really like Gordon tonight. He would slide into that secondary playmaker role, and I think he would see a lot of offensive opportunities. They targeted Booker in the post a lot with Gordon last game, and I could imagine them going even more to that without the offensive production of Porter. Barton is also available to play tonight, but I would be shocked if he sees a lot of minutes considering he hasn’t played in over a month.

 Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2) Markus Howard ($1,500 DK and $6,500)

Howard is the opposite of Saric; he’s the site minimum on DK and is just above it on FD. I would like Markus Howard tonight in a situation where Porter either doesn’t play or plays minimally and is ineffective. Without Porter, I could see the Nuggets really struggling to find an offensive spark, and if there’s one thing that Howard can bring, it’s that. If he were to get significant minutes tonight, he would have a great chance at returning value given his usage on the offensive end and his 3 point shooting ability. 

3) Torrey Craig ($3,300 DK and $7,000 FD)

Craig is playing against his old team, and after a solid game 1 in which he put up 9 and 8, I could see him getting even more minutes in game 2. He knows the Nuggets well (obviously), and he should have less jitters this game than he did in game 1. In addition to those reasons, he might even get a slight minutes boost if Ayton gets in any sort of foul trouble (which I think he might). 

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

The biggest surprise in this game 1 was the way that PHO defended Jokic. Rather than sending a double team, or even shading help in his direction, the Suns decided to play the Joker straight up with Deandre Ayton. Ayton did an excellent job on Jokic, limiting him to 22, 9, and only 3 assists. Since it worked so well, I think the Suns will go back to this strategy in game 2, and Jokic’s adjustment will likely be to attack Ayton early and often. If he can get him in foul trouble, that would be the best way to force the Suns to do something different. In addition to this strategy employed by the Suns, it’s important to look at how Michael Porter’s back might affect his minutes and productivity. If he becomes useless, the Nuggets will have to shift around their rotations in order to find some other offense in their lineup. What they do tonight and how Porter responds to this injury will be very telling in terms of this series going forward.

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and (soon to be) ownership projections, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!