NBA DFS Analytics: June 6th


Announcements

1) Welcome to our FREE NBA DFS Newsletter! It's playoff time and we can't wait to bring you some value. Below you will find:

- Some Quick Hitters on the day's games.

- Our Playoff Blueprint, with DFS plays we like from various price ranges and some ideas for lineup construction strategy.

- Our Projection Tables, which offer a sneak peak at our FULL Player projections, which can be found in our AC+ NBA Newsletter.

- Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the day, you can learn more about Monkey Knife Fight here.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) Check out our blog where I'll be writing DAILY articles on the NBA playoffs and making HOT TAKES along the way.

3) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (6/6)

- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is ATL v PHI at 220  points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAC v DAL at 210 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

I really like the top-tier plays tonight. If Embiid doesn’t play, I’m going to like both Simmons and Harris at the bottom of this top-tier, and I also definitely like Kawhi and Luka as well. I would get as many of these guys into your lineup as possible, and then fill out your lineup with some of these low-tier guys. Most of them have solid floors (as they’re locked in for their bench minutes), but I really like a few of them to potentially hit their ceiling tonight (especially a guy like Huerter if Hunter sits). In terms of value, I think the top-tier is definitely where to look tonight, so build your lineup with that in mind. I’ll probably start by locking in Kawhi and Simmons, and then optimizing around them and working from there.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Ben Simmons ($8,300)

Either with a limited Embiid, or without him completely (in my opinion more likely), Simmons should be the catalyst for PHI tonight. He should be able to get the ball off the glass and run immediately, and I think we could definitely see a triple-double from Ben tonight. In terms of the matchup, I feel like Simmons should be able to exploit ATL’s lack of size. I’m not sure who will guard him, but he’ll probably have a height advantage on whoever it is, and regardless, he’ll probably find his way into some post opportunities on Trae Young. That’s bbq chicken.

3. Luka Doncic ($11,100)

I would’ve put Tobias here if I knew that Embiid was sitting, but either way, I also like Luka today. He played a passive game 6 in which he deferred a little too much to his teammates throughout the game, and I think he’ll respond tonight, in a game 7, by coming out aggressive as ever. He definitely watched the film of game 6 and wasn’t pleased with his lack of attack, and I definitely think you have to expect a bounce back game from him. Furthermore, everybody’s exhausted from a long series, and I think Luka is the one that takes advantage of that the most.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Clint Capela ($7,700)

Clint Capela should be in a decent position to exploit the front line of PHI. Either Embiid plays and is hurt, in which case Capela should attack him on the glass and outwork him, something he probably would’ve done if Embiid was healthy. If Embiid sits, PHI will not have anyone that can deter the lob threat of Capela, and I would expect him to see a lot of action around the rim for that reason. He’s a walking double-double, and I could see him having a better series against PHI than he did against NY.

3. Tim Hardaway ($6,400)

I wrote an ARTICLE yesterday about how Hardaway has essentially developed into the Mavs second best player, and I think you’re getting excellent value for him in this mid-tier. The other players around him in this price range are the 3rd or 4th options on their teams, so you’re getting a guy who’s locked in for 35-40 minutes and who should take a good number of shots tonight.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Kevin Huerter ($4,000)

With Deandre Hunter Questionable, I think you have to strongly consider Huerter, ESPECIALLY if Hunter sits. Hunter sitting would open up a starting spot that I think Huerter would be most likely to take, but I also think he could even play more minutes if Hunter tries to play and isn’t as effective. The Hawks go with who is rolling, so if Nate Macmillan realizes that Hunter isn’t himself, he’ll have no problem giving someone else the end-game minutes.

3. Marcus Morris Sr ($4,900)

Even though I went to Morris in the last game and he didn’t perform well, I won’t be deterred from going to him again today. He’s locked in for 35-40+ minutes, and I also expect him to spend less time defensively on Luka today (because Kawhi will guard him more presumably), which should result in him being more fresh on the offensive end and therefore more aggressive from the start. I could see a big bounce back game from Morris today… he’s made for games like this.

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 6/6 AC Projection Tables

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!

Kawhi Leonard MORE than 33.5 Points

Kawhi absolutely showed out last game, and it would only be right if he concluded his incredible playoff series by going off one final time in game 7. He got whatever he wanted towards the end of game 6 and completely took the game into his own hands, so I expect him to do something similar in an even more important game for his legacy tonight. I could see PG taking a major backseat tonight, which means more shots and points for Leonard.

Tobias Harris MORE than 24.5 Points

There are 2 main reasons why I like this line tonight. 1) The Sixers try to get Tobias involved early in the series. He had 28 in the first half of game 1 against the Wizards in the 1st round, and I expect the Sixers to establish him in game 1 of this series as well, especially given his size advantage over whoever will be guarding him. 2) Embiid will either be sitting or not himself, in which case Tobias has a solid chance of being the primary scoring option today.

If you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!