NBA DFS Analytics: June 4th and 5th


Announcements

1) Welcome to our FREE NBA DFS Newsletter! It's playoff time and we can't wait to bring you some value. Below you will find:

- Some Quick Hitters on the days games.

- Our Playoff Blueprint, with DFS plays we like from various price ranges and some ideas for lineup construction strategy.

- Our Projection Tables, which offer a sneak peak at our FULL Player projections, which can be found in our AC+ NBA Newsletter.

- Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the day, you can learn more about Monkey Knife Fight here.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) Today's write ups cover BOTH the June 4th game (LAC-DAL) and the June 5th game (MIL-BKN). This is because DraftKings offers classic competitions spanning both days.

3) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (6/4-6/5)

- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v BKN at 239.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAC v DAL at 216.5 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

You’ll notice that the top guy from each tier is a Bucks player; that’s because the Nets play at a fast pace and aren’t a great defensive team, especially in the paint. I’ll be hunting MIL players that are able to attack the paint and use their size to exploit BKN’s defense, because I think that’s what their game plan will be in game 1. Other than the Bucks guys, I think the other thing to exploit here is the potential Boban start. If he starts again, I think you have to get him into your lineup. He’ll probably return value, and he allows you to spend up on some other guys in that top-tier.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Kawhi Leonard ($9,600)

With his back up against the wall, in what is literally a must-win game, I think Kawhi shows out. He heard the noise in the bubble about his lack of clutchness and leadership, and I think he will  attack early and often tonight to make a statement. He should take tons of shots, and he should have an extra level of urgency in game 6 knowing that he has to win to stay alive. With Kawhi STILL under the 10k threshold, I find it really hard not to like him in this top-tier.

3. James Harden ($10,900)

James Harden has clearly loved playing for the BKN nets this postseason; unlike his run with the Rockets, he has multiple teammates he can depend on in big moments, and the entire offensive scheme doesn’t rest on his shoulders. It’s allowed him to pick his spots more, and he’s been truly dominant. He’s a triple-double threat every night, and I expect him to come out ready for game 1 - he’s probably the most rested he’s ever been in a second round playoff series (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, watch some old film of him in the playoffs with HOU).

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Marcus Morris ($5,100)

Dallas went to a zone for a good part of the 1st and 3rd quarters in game 5 and it opened up lots of threes for Marcus Morris and some of the other periphery guys. I expect DAL to go back to the zone with Boban in the game, and I think it will continue to open up shooting opportunities for Morris. Given his price tag, and the minutes he’s locked in for, I think you’re getting solid value for Morris at the bottom end of this middle tier.

3. Tim Hardaway ($6,100)

Remember when Kristaps was supposed to be Luka’s sidekick? Well, that guy has turned into Tim Hardaway Jr. He’s scored more than 20 points in 3 of the 5 games this series, and I think he’ll see some openings tonight in the offense as the Clippers try to react to Luka’s ridiculous game 5 performance. If the Mavs are going to close out this game, they’ll have to rely on someone other than Luka to have a big performance, and that guy will definitely have to be Tim Hardaway.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Boban Marjanovic ($3,000) *IF he starts*

Boban started the last game and played 20 minutes, putting up 9 and 7. He played pretty well while he was in there and was able to cover lots of ground in the zone, so I could see the Mavs going back to Boban again tonight. And if they do, you’re getting excellent value for Boban at the price minimum; he barely has to do anything to return value, which he would likely be able to do in even 15 minutes.

3. Bobby Portis ($4,000)

This is a risky play (because I don’t know what his minutes will look like), but I think Portis has a chance to be a big part of this series. BKN likes to go small, and I could definitely see Portis fulfilling that small ball 4 or 5 man, matching up with someone like Blake Griffin or Bruce Brown. He allows for more switching on defense, and he adds another guy offensively that can go get his shot. If I had to guess, Portis will see slightly more minutes than last series.

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 6/4 AC Projection Tables

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!

Kawhi Leonard MORE than 30.5 Points

In a game with his back up against the wall, and after a year in which he was disappointing in important playoff games, I think Kawhi Leonard comes to play tonight. He’s gotten basically whatever he’s wanted this series against whoever’s been guarding him, and I expect him to REALLY exploit those matchups tonight in what is a very important game for his legacy.

James Harden MORE than 10.5 Assists

Harden has gotten whatever he’s wanted in these playoffs so far, and no matter who’s guarding him in this series, I expect him to get whatever he wants again. Against a Bucks team that is excellent at defending the paint, I expect Harden to get by his guy and do A LOT of kicking out to shooters; the way to combat MIL’s size and length is to make them close out to great shooters on the perimeter multiple times in a possession, and I think Harden will be a key in that sense.

If you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!