NBA DFS Analytics: June 3rd


Announcements

1) Welcome to our FREE NBA DFS Newsletter! It's playoff time and we can't wait to bring you some value. Below you will find:

- Some Quick Hitters on the days games.

- Our Playoff Blueprint, with DFS plays we like from various price ranges and some ideas for lineup construction strategy.

- Our Projection Tables, which offer a sneak peak at our FULL Player projections, which can be found in our AC+ NBA Newsletter.

- Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the day, you can learn more about Monkey Knife Fight here.

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (6/3)

- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

Tier 1 ($8,000+)

2. Damian Lillard ($10,300)

Damian Lillard is quite frankly ridiculous; he’s gotten whatever he’s wanted in this series (both on the 3 point line and towards the rim), and I don’t expect that to change tonight. Although these teams will continue to make adjustments, we know what these teams are and what this series looks like; it’ll be a high scoring game, and Lillard is going to be the focal point of POR’s offense, like he has been for games 1-5. He’s in a groove like no other player in the NBA right now, and I think you have to go with Dame when he’s feeling it like he is.

3. Nikola Jokic ($10,700)

As I just mentioned in Lillard’s section, I believe this game will be high scoring once again. Jokic is going to continue to go at Nurkic in an attempt to get him in foul trouble (which has worked quite well so far this series), and I expect him to continue to dominate from that high post area tonight. Like Lillard, he’s gotten virtually everything he’s wanted in this series, and there aren’t going to be any adjustments from POR this game that are going to have a meaningful impact on Jokic’s level of production. He is what he is, and the POR defense is what it is, and they can’t stop him

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

1. Michael Porter Jr ($6,900)

The Nuggets made a concerted effort to go to Michael Porter Jr early in game 5, and it went quite well for them. He got going early, and it allowed the rest of the DEN team to play off of his shooting gravity and athleticism. I expect the Nuggets to look for Michael Porter Jr early and often again in game 6, as Jokic and Michael Malone definitely know that Jokic can’t do it by himself. Porter Jr led the team in minutes last game, and at only 6.9k, you’re getting excellent value for him in this mid-tier. 

2. Aaron Gordon ($5,300)

Aaron Gordon’s price tag makes him a solid play tonight, despite his limited involvement as a focal point of the DEN offense. He’ll continue to play big minutes as a result of his defense and versaitility, and simply by virtue of playing with Jokic, he can rack up offensive statistics. Given the fact that he’s almost in this low-tier, I think Gordon is one of the safer plays of the night. Maybe he doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he has a pretty high floor, which makes him a solid play in cash lineups.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Austin Rivers ($4,500)

I know, I know. I just wrote about Morris, and now I’m writing about Rivers, who starts ahead of him. The truth is that both of them can be successful tonight, especially considering both guys are in the low-tier and don’t have to do much to return value. Rivers put up 18-7-1 in 47 minutes in the last game (the 2nd most minutes on the team), and like Morris, it seems that he’s gained the confidence of Malone, so I expect him to continue to see important minutes in the 4th quarter.

3. Carmelo Anthony ($4,200)

To be completely honest, I struggled a lot with this last low-tier spot. I don’t love Carmelo, but there are simply not a lot of good options tonight in this price range. Carmelo has a higher ceiling than a lot of the other guys in this low-tier, so that’s the largest reason I would take a flyer on him tonight. That being said, he has a chance to completely flop as well if he misses shots. He should see increased minutes if Nurkic gets in foul trouble (which he probably will) tonight.

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes OUR TOP PLAY from each tierstart your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!   

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 6/2 AC Projection Tables