NBA DFS Analytics: June 30th


Announcements

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our projections tables and Tier plays for that below!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as a sneak peak of our ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

QUICK HITTERS (6/30)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is LAC v PHO at 215 points. 

Classic Blueprint

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

You’ll notice that 7 of the 9 guys on this list are from the ATL-MIL game. This is because with Trae and Giannis both presumably sidelined with injuries, there is lots of value opened up across the board. I will definitely be skewing my lineup heavily towards this game for the classic Wed-Thurs slate. In a time like the playoffs where it’s rare to get massive value opened up as a result of injuries, you need to pounce on it when you can, and Giannis and Trae are really great opportunities.

These situations do differ a bit, though. Without Trae, we already know what the Hawks will do, because it’s what they did in game 4. Lou will likely start, and guys like Reddish, Huerter, Bogdan, etc will get a lot more looks than normal. For MIL, though, it’s unclear how the rotation will change. I definitely like Portis, who I think gains the biggest boost as a result of Giannis’ injury, just because he plays a similar position and has a similar skillset.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL CLASSIC BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Jrue Holiday ($8,300)

Pretty similar situation to Khris Middleton here. I anticipate Giannis sitting (or not being close to 100%), and that means both Middleton and Holiday will get massive boosts; they’ll both have the ball more and take more shots, so you definitely have to get one or both of them into your lineup given their price tags. They could both have ceiling games.

3. Paul George ($10,300)

I honestly don’t have much confidence in the Suns tonight. PG has looked pretty unstoppable, and I think he’ll have another huge game tonight. It seems like he’s constantly looking for his shot (and for good reason) in these win or go home games, and tonight will be another opportunity for him to change his “not clutch” legacy.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,100)

I’ve been pretty low on Bogdan as of late, but his knee is looking a bit better, and he takes enough shots to return value almost every night, so I think shooting well last game will bode well for his numbers moving forward. Again, without Trae (or with a limited Trae), Bogdan will get more shots and playmaking opportunities than normal… and he’s almost in the bottom tier. Seems to be a great value play.

3. Deandre Ayton ($7,400)

I see two scenarios tonight, both of them good for Ayton. Either Zubac comes back, in which case Ayton gets to go up against someone who he’s had some really solid dfs nights against in this series already. Or, LAC goes small again, in which case Ayton will most certainly make some adjustments to assure that he’s more effective tonight than he was in game 5 against the small lineup - could see more post ups and OREBS.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Lou Williams ($3,600)

Lou Williams got the start in game 4 and looked like the Lou Williams we know and love. If Trae continues to sit, he’ll probably see lots of minutes like he did last night, and also lots of opportunities to make plays for himself and others. I love his value at 3.6k, and even though Jrue will probably attempt to lock him up in game 5, he should still get his due.

3. Cam Reddish ($3,700)

Reddish showed some really excellent flashes in game 4, and it should definitely earn him a larger role moving forward, especially if Trae continues to be sidelined. Even if Trae plays tomorrow night, I would like Cam’s chances to see good minutes and return value. He can defend and make threes, and he’s quite an athlete, so he needs to see more minutes, and I think the Hawks know that after last night.

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 

For our FULL PROJECTIONS (Projections for every player in tonight's slate), start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

Showdown Blueprint!

(LAC vs. PHO)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Paul George ($12,000 DK and $16,000 FD)

PG has done everything for this Clippers team in both this series and these playoffs. Also, with his back against the wall, he’s had some of the best games of his career. He’s going to come out tonight incredibly aggressive, and I expect him to have another huge game. He’ll score and get rebounds, and if his teammates can hit shots, he could even end up on triple-double watch.

3. Chris Paul ($9,600 DK and $12,000 FD) *especially on FD*

Paul had 22 and 8 in game 5, but he didn’t play as well as I think he can. Tonight, I think he’ll show his true leadership qualities and take on a bigger role for the Suns. He’s finally gotten a couple games under his belt, and I think he should continue to be aggressive early and often tonight, especially in a close out game on the road, where they’ll be looking to their leader.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Marcus Morris ($4,000 DK and $11,000 FD) *ESPECIALLY ON DK*

I don’t love Morris on FD, but I LOVE HIM on DK. He’s going to start and play really solid minutes tonight, and his knee has looked pretty solid in these last couple games. He should only be more and more healthy, and he shot the ball super well last game, so he should continue being super aggressive tonight, especially at home. Here are a couple players that he’s priced behind on DK: Patrick Beverley, Demarcus Cousins, Cam Payne...

3. Jae Crowder ($5,400 DK and $8,000 FD) *especially on FD*

Crowder is priced behind Cousins, Beverley, and Batum on FD, but I actually think he has a really good chance of out scoring them all. He hasn’t shot the ball well in this series, but I think any night could be a turning point, especially since both Book and CP3 had big games a couple nights ago.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

The biggest thing to keep in mind tonight is the Ivica Zubac news. My gut is telling me he isn’t going to play. They played their best game of the series last game without him, so I don’t see why they would risk injury to bring him back tonight. In that case, I think there are multiple outcomes. First of all, the Clippers will continue to go small, which is good for guys like Mann, Morris, Batum, etc. The other thing that I think will happen is a mindset change from Ayton. He’s going to have to take more advantage of the lack of size by either posting up in the paint or shooting over his defender in the mid-range, 2 things he didn’t do a lot of in game 5. I expect a FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE Ayton tonight, which should bode really well for his dfs statistics tonight.

Showdown Minutes/Points/Ownership projections for Fanduel (sneak peak)

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!