NBA DFS Analytics: June 26th


Announcements

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our projections tables and Tier plays for that below!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as a sneak peak of our ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

QUICK HITTERS (6/26)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is LAC v PHO at 218 points. 

Classic Blueprint

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

Chris Paul should play better tonight after his first game back where he didn’t really look like himself. He’s had some time to adjust and get his feet under him, and I think that time will not only help himself but his teammates as well, who he should get involved tonight early and often. The other thing that stands out to me from this game is how cheap Reggie Jackson is; the man is literally the 2nd option on the team and he’s 6k. That makes no sense to me and I’ll be locking him in my lineup.

In terms of the Bucks and Hawks, I definitely don’t expect game 3 to go like game 2. ATL is going to come ready to play, they’ll be at home, and this game will probably be close, so I don’t feel too much fear about playing these guys. The other thing to keep in mind is that Jrue and Khris have been really bad away from home in these playoffs, so I think that bodes pretty well for Giannis’ numbers in this game.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL CLASSIC BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Chris Paul ($8,100) 

CP3 seemed to get more comfortable as the last game went on, so I expect him to play better tonight in game 4. He’s going to be able to get his teammates involved no matter what, and I really think he’ll shoot the ball better than he did in game 3; his shoulder doesn’t appear to be an issue anymore, and I think (being the high IQ player that he is) he’ll figure out some adjustments to make tonight.

3. Paul George ($10,000)

George didn’t actually shoot well in game 3, but he still put up a very solid dfs night. I expect him to play super well again; he’ll be very aggressive from the start and will look for both his 3 ball and lanes to the rim. He’s shown a surprising ability to play with his back against the wall, and I think the Clippers have a great chance at tying the series tonight, especially if PG puts up the performance I think he will.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Deandre Ayton ($6,600)

Ayton had a bit of a worse game than he’s been having in these playoffs, but he still put up 18 and 9. I think he’ll play better tonight and will have more opportunities to score the ball, because I think Chris Paul will be more comfortable and therefore more effective in the pick and roll; this would obviously bode well for Ayton, who’s the main pick setter on this PHO team. I could also see Ayton making more post moves or taking more mid range shots - he’s been very successful so far with both.

3. Brook Lopez ($5,200)

Lopez made some adjustments to his defense in game 2, and that allowed him to defend the pick and roll better and therefore play more minutes. Also, they looked for him more in the paint, because they realized he has a mismatch against John Collins (Capela defends Giannis usually). Both of these developments make me like Brook a lot more than I did going into game 2, and I think you’re getting solid value for him at 5.2k.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Cam Johnson ($4,000)

Cam Johnson played 30 minutes last game, and he played very well in those minutes, so I see no reason why he won’t continue to see that many minutes moving forward. If he gets those minutes, he can really shoot the ball, and he is one of the best cutters I’ve seen in these playoffs, which is very important when playing alongside CP3 and Dbook. LOVE Cam’s ceiling at 4k tonight.

3. Bobby Portis ($3,800)

The game was a blowout, but Portis was the first guy off the bench last night, and I think he will be moving forward as well. When he’s out there, he’s super aggressive both in terms of finding his shot and getting rebounds, so he can rack up fantasy points really fast (like we saw in game 1). His 6th man position was really promising in game 2, and I think he’ll be a great play moving forward.

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

For our FULL PROJECTIONS (Projections for every player in tonight's slate), start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

Showdown Blueprint!

(LAC vs. PHO)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Reggie Jackson ($7,400 DK and $12,000 FD)

Reggie Jackson has turned heads in these playoffs, and it’s about time we call him what he is: an all-star. He’s shot well from three and has had some amazing takes to the rim, and he’s also able to rebound the basketball and get his teammates involved. Everything is there for him to have a ceiling game tonight, and I could see it happening.

3. Paul George ($11,200 DK and $15,000 FD)

If I had to guess, PG will be the highest scoring player in tonight’s game. Will he be the best value play, though? Probably not. However, I really like how aggressive he’s been as of late. He’s looking for his own shot early and often, and I think he’ll do so again tonight in a must-win game 4 at home. He’s been great in big games, and tonight is another opportunity.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Terance Mann ($4,400 DK and $9,500 FD)

Terance Mann got the start last game, and he’s looked more and more aggressive each time he gets out on the court. I expect him to get tons of minutes again tonight (especially with Marcus Morris injured and clearly not himself), so the ceiling that he has at his price tag is pretty phenomenal.

3. Ivica Zubac ($4,200 DK and $11,500 FD) *Especially on DK*

Zubac will continue to get 30+ minutes, and he’ll continue to be very productive in those minutes. He’s a monster in the paint and on the glass, and like the other guys in this dark-horse section, he has an AMAZING ceiling tonight; we saw a sneak peak of it last game with his 15 and 16 stat line, but I could see an even bigger scoring night tonight.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

I mentioned it so much that you probably got annoyed, but I really think there is some crazy upside in my dark horse plays tonight. The Clippers are always going to need someone to step up besides PG and Reggie Jackson, and Mann/Zubac should be poised to do so tonight. Cam Johnson played 30 minutes last game and definitely will continue to see big minutes tonight, so I could see him low-key having a great night with the amount of attention that’ll be on CP3 and Book. Overall, I’ll probably lean 4:2 Clippers tonight, just because I think they’ll win the game and will therefore have more guys that likely return value.

Showdown Ownership for Fanduel (sneak peak)

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!