NBA DFS Analytics: June 23rd


Announcements

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our projections tables and Tier plays for that in Yesterday's Newsletter!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as a sneak peak of our ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (6/22)

- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is ATL v MIL at 226 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAC v PHO at 223 points.

Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. ATL)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Trae Young ($11,600 DK and $15,000 FD)

Trae Young is not the type of player to take game 1 to “figure things out” in the way that a guy like Lebron or Durant does so. He’s going to come out firing, and he usually plays even better on the road than he does at home, so I’m expecting a big performance from Trae tonight despite the fact that he’s probably going to be defended by Jrue; he was successful against Ben Simmons (one of the best perimeter defenders in the league), so I expect him to be successful against Holiday as well.

3. Khris Middleton ($10,000 DK and $13,500 FD)

Similar to Jrue, I think the Bucks will attempt to establish Khris Middleton early. If they’re going to be successful moving forward in these playoffs, they’re going to need to count on both Jrue and Middleton to be consistent offensively, something they haven’t been able to do CONSISTENTLY up to this point. Like Jrue, they’ll look for Middleton to be aggressive early and take advantage of whatever matchup he has (which will likely be a mismatch in either size or quickness).

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Pat Connaughton ($2,200 DK and $7,500 FD) *especially on DK*

I see no reason why Connaughton should be 2.2k on DK when he was basically the 6th man for the Bucks towards the end of that series. There’s no reason for me to think that he won’t continue to get 20+ minutes, and if he gets that you’re definitely going to want to have him locked him into your lineup on DK; he’s able to get periphery stats (rebound and defense), and he might get some looks from three as a result of the wall that’s built for Giannis when he’s driving to the rim.

3. Bryn Forbes ($3,200 DK and $6,500 FD) *especially on FD*

Forbes was relied upon earlier in these playoffs for scoring off the bench, and I could see the Bucks going back to him tonight. It’s a new series, so coach Bud could see something new where Forbes will be a lot more effective than he was against BKN. He’ll probably, for example, be able to hide a lot more on the defensive end against a team like the Hawks as opposed to the Nets, who don’t really have any guys who aren’t involved in the offense.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

As is always the case with a new series, there are tons of unknowns in terms of what the rotations and matchups will look like. The Bucks just went 7 games against a BKN team who went very small, and now they’ll be facing a Hawks team that starts a 7 footer in Clint Capela and has size throughout their lineup, so it’s very unclear how that’ll change the minutes if at all. 

There are two things that I’m relatively confident about in this series; first, I think the Bucks will try to establish Khris and Jrue early. Giannis had to do too much for them against the Nets, and I really think the Bucks will make a significant effort to get those guys touches early. The second thing I’m confident about is Trae Young coming to play. He plays great on the road, and it often takes teams a couple games to get used to how to defend him in terms of the ways that he draws fouls. I see a lot of free throws for Trae tonight.

Showdown Ownership for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)

 

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!