NBA DFS Analytics: June 17th


Announcements

1) Welcome to our Playoff Showdown Blueprint Newsletter! We will be providing PROJECTION TABLES starting NEXT WEEK! Stay tuned. We went off yesterday, hopefully we can continue that momentum today!

2) If you’ve never played NBA dfs Showdown contests before, make sure to check out this article we wrote, we should give you a solid introduction!

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

3) Check out our blog where I'll be writing DAILY articles on the NBA playoffs and making HOT TAKES along the way.

4) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (6/17)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. The Over/Under is 220 Points.

Showdown Blueprint!

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Kevin Durant ($12,400 DK and $16,000 FD)

Durant had an all time great playoff performance in game 5, putting up 49-10-17 and completely carrying the Nets. However, I don’t see the Bucks allowing him to have the same type of game tonight, especially with Giannis likely spending more time on him defensively. He should see more double teams and should be helped on more aggressively tonight in the paint, so he shouldn’t have quite as good a game as he did 2 nights ago. However, he’s in a zone like no other, and he’ll still find a way to put up a good fantasy night.

3. Jeff Green ($4,800 DK and $11,000 FD)

Admittedly, I like Green a lot more on DK tonight due to his minuscule price tag, but I don’t even dislike him on FD where he’s priced way higher. He put up 27-3-1 last game in 35 minutes, and he should continue to be successful tonight. He’s not ever going to be a focal point of the Bucks defense, and with James Harden at the helm of the BKN offense (even though he’s not close to fully healthy), I think Jeff Green will be solid both on the 3 point line and in the pick and roll. I would think extremely hard about making him my captain on DK (even though I almost always advise against choosing a captain that’s cheaper than 8k). Tonight might be an exception to that rule in some of my lineups.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. PJ Tucker ($2,400 DK and $8,000 FD)

PJ Tucker has been primarily focusing on defending Durant, but after Giannis hinted at spending more time defensively on KD in game 6, I could see Tucker having a lot more energy on the offensive end. He took on a larger offensive role in game 4 and was successful in it, so I think he could look to get back to that tonight, especially considering he’ll be playing in front of his home crowd. Getting Tucker into your lineup allows you to spend up elsewhere, and with the minutes he’ll get, he always has a chance to have a breakout fantasy night.

3. Blake Griffin ($6,800 DK and $10,000 FD)

Durant grabbed 17 rebounds last game, but I think he’ll probably grab fewer tonight, which should mean that BG will have more than 3 rebounds (which is what he had in game 5). Offensively, Griffin will continue to see open looks from three as a result of the help defense that KD necessitates, as well as Lopez’s quickness (or lack thereof), which allows Griffin to get his shot off more easily than normal. The Nets will need someone besides KD to step up, and I think Griffin (like Jeff Green) can be successful in the PnR with Harden, so I like him tonight.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

James Harden clearly wasn’t himself in game 5, so I’ll start out by saying that I would be really cautious in terms of making him your Captain/MVP play, or even inserting him into your lineup at all. However, even though he isn’t nearly as mobile as we know he can be, he’s still an excellent passer out of the pick and roll, and I think that bodes super well for both Blake Griffin and Jeff Green. The other thing to keep in mind tonight is how the Bucks will adjust to what KD did last game; there’s simply no world in which MIL is content with letting him get 49 as easily as he did, so they’re definitely going to change something up tonight. Whether that means putting Giannis on him, sending a double team, or over-helping in the paint, I don’t expect KD to be as dominant as he was in game 5. For those reasons, I’ll likely go to Giannis in my Captain/MVP position, because I don’t see the Nets making any adjustments to how he’s guarded.

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

James Harden MORE Fantasy Points than Brook Lopez (+9.5 Fantasy Points)

Lopez had a better than average game in game 5, and Harden went 0-8 from three and 1-10 from the field. Harden is going to get assists and rebounds just from being out on the court, and I bet he’s going to make some threes tonight; even though he has a hamstring injury that’s limiting him a lot, he doesn’t use that much legs when he shoots anyway, so I bet he’ll bounce back a bit tonight. I just don’t think 9.5 points is enough to make up for Lopez tonight.

Joe Harris MORE than 2.5 Made Threes 

Joe Harris has really struggled to shoot the basketball in this series, but I think the Nets will go to him early tonight to get his confidence going. He’s a guy that you can run offense through, and he’s going to get up his fair share of threes tonight, so it’s only a matter of time before he regresses to the mean. They aren’t going to be successful moving forward if he can’t be a viable option for them offensively, and Nash knows that.

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!