1) Welcome to our Playoff Showdown Blueprint Newsletter!
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3) No Projection Tables today, but we hope to get them out to you once we have finalized our points/ownership model for showdown competitions!
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QUICK HITTERS (6/15)
- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.
This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!
This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.
Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800 DK and $15,000 FD)
Giannis has taken 31 and 26 shots in his last 2 games, and he hasn’t hit over 50% of them in either game, but he’s still put up 30+ in both. I expect Giannis to take a similar number of shots tonight, but perhaps he’ll hit a higher percentage. Blake Griffin is by far the best defender to cover him, but he didn’t play most of the second half last game, so we’ll see how that plays out tonight; if Griffin is injured or in the dog house, Giannis being able to go up against someone else would be a huge advantage for him.
3. Jrue Holiday ($9,000 DK and $12,500 FD)
Holiday hasn’t had a great series, but I think he’ll see a slight boost from not having to go against Kyrie. He’s been the primary defender on Irving for a good part of these first 4 games, and that means he has to chase him around the court and defend all 7 of his counter moves on every possession. Without Irving, he should certainly have some more energy on the offensive end to make plays, and I could see the Bucks going to Jrue Holiday in an effort to get him going so that he gains some confidence.
Dark Horse Plays
This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!
2. Mike James ($4,800 DK and $9,500 FD)
Without Irving and without a healthy Harden, the Nets will have to find guys that can get a shot for themselves besides Kevin Durant, and Mike James is that guy. He’s shown an excellent ability to get into the paint and finish, and he’s also been able to shoot the ball pretty well from three. I could see him getting the start tonight, and I think he’ll get more shots tonight due to the injuries. He’s underpriced on both sites, so I’ll definitely look to target him in almost all of my lineups.
3. Joe Harris ($8,400 DK and $9,500 FD)
As I’ve already mentioned a lot today, the Nets will have to find offense wherever they can find it. Although Harris isn’t great at getting off his own shot, he will definitely be used as a significant focus of BKN’s offense tonight; he’ll come off screens like Reddick and Duncan Robinson, and that’ll have to be a way that BKN finds some shots tonight. He hasn’t shot the ball great this series, but they won’t be expected to win tonight, so perhaps he’ll feel a little less pressure than normal.
Lineup Construction Strategy
This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.
The James Harden news makes this showdown super interesting. Despite the fact that he’s going to try to play, I think we have to look past that a little bit. Remember when AD was going to “try to play” and then got reinjured in the first 2 minutes? If Harden does go through with playing, I actually think it’s more than likely that the same happens to him. So, you should operate with this slate as if Harden won’t have a large impact, which means there is some definite value on the Nets to be found. They’ll have to find new forms of offense, which is why I specifically like the BKN guys that have the ability to create their own shot. It’s also important to think about how the Bucks game plan might shift a bit tonight. They did far too much isolation in game 4, and I think they distribute the ball a bit more tonight, which bodes well for a guy like Jrue Holiday who’s been left out of the offense at times.
To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Giannis Antetokounmpo MORE than 13.5 Rebounds
My reasoning for this over is pretty simple: I expect BKN to miss more shots than normal tonight, which means there should be more defensive rebound opportunities than normal tonight for the Bucks. Giannis has been right around 13 rebounds in the first 4 games of the series, and I think he has a good chance to have his most rebounds of the series in game 5 tonight as a result of the Nets’ lack of scorers.
Bruce Brown MORE Rebounds than James Harden (+0.5 Rebounds)
This one has a pretty simple reason as well: I think James Harden will play tonight, but I doubt he plays the entire game, and I doubt he looks anything like himself. I actually think the most likely scenario is that Harden starts but doesn’t look great at all and sits for a large part of the game, which would be great for Bruce Brown’s line tonight.
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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!