NBA DFS Analytics: June 10th


Announcements

1) The first night of our Showdown Newsletter last night was a SUCCESS! Can't wait to continue to provide you value on nights where there is only 1 game!

Good Luck Tonight! If you have any questions reach out to us on Twitter!

2) Check out our blog where I'll be writing DAILY articles on the NBA playoffs and making HOT TAKES along the way.

3) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

QUICK HITTERS (6/10)

- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v MIL at 234 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAC v UTA at 221 points.

PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

If there has EVER been a stars and scrubs night, it is tonight. First of all, I really like the value you’re getting in this top-tier. I love both BKN guys, and there’s a case to be made that Mitchell is a must-play as well due to the continued absence of Conley and the ridiculous usage that Mitchell therefore gets. The low-tier is also incredibly strong; the Clippers have changed up their rotations a bit, so you can find some value in guys like Kennard, Rondo, and Zubac, who are clearly going to play larger roles this series but have not been priced as so. I also love guys like Blake Griffin and Bruce Brown, who have been extremely consistent in their roles with the Nets in these playoffs. Stars and Scrubs tonight, guys. Do it.

Tier 1 ($8,000 +)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range. 

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. This free newsletter will provide our second and third favorite play(s) from each tier! 

For our FULL PLAYOFF BLUEPRINT, which includes all our favorite plays from each tier, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

2. Kevin Durant ($10,600)

The Bucks have had absolutely no answers for Kevin Durant in these first two games; he’s scored effortlessly from all three levels, and he’s definitely reminded us why he might be the most gifted scorer of all time. Even though I expect him to be a little bit more of a facilitator than a scorer towards the beginning of this game tonight, I still feel confident that he’ll take over at different points, and that should make way for a very well-rounded stat line in this game 3 matchup. He’s been great on the boards this series (because he has to be), and that’ll continue to be a focus for him tonight.

3. Donovan Mitchell ($8,900)

Mitchell is the 5th highest priced player on this slate, and he could definitely end up being the highest scoring player. He put up 45-5-3 in game 1 on 30 (!) shots, and I expect him to see the same workload tonight without Conley in the lineup again. He’s the focal point of this offense, and with the switching defense of LAC, he’s able to hunt out switches and go at whoever he wants, which REALLY looks like it’s working for him. I expect another big game from Mitchell tonight where he takes tons of shots. His floor is incredibly high, and we saw a ceiling game just a few days ago.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

2. Khris Middleton ($7,800)

Middleton has had a rough first two games, but I can definitely see him turning it around tonight; it’s not necessarily that he’s getting bad looks (although BKN is doing a solid job on him), but he’s just not hitting a lot of shots that he normally does. Going back home to Milwaukee should make him feel more confident and comfortable, and I could definitely see the Bucks targeting him early in an attempt to get him going, because there’s no way the Bucks can win this series with how he’s been shooting the basketball.

3. Royce O’Neale ($5,100)

To be completely honest, I just absolutely love Royce O’Neale; he strokes it from three, he’s a great extra passer, and he’s amazing on defense. His minutes are going to continue to be in that 35+ range as he continues to bring value on the floor, but LAC will never be too concerned about him, so he can just fly under the radar with good dfs nights. He fills up the stat sheet, and he’s definitely going to get his fair share of three point looks, so you’re getting solid value for Royce at the LOW end of this middle tier.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

2. Joe Ingles ($4,700)

Joe Ingles’ price had decreased $200 dollars since last game, and I think you have to grab him tonight in this low-tier. He’s going to get the start and see 30+ minutes, and we know that he can shoot and distribute the basketball while he’s out there. He put up 8-7-3 last game, and I think his points could certainly be higher tonight with a little bit more pressure on Mitchell defensively from the Clippers. I’ll definitely be grabbing Ingles tonight in virtually all of my lineups.

3. Bruce Brown ($4,200)

Bruce Brown is going to continue to start and will continue to star in his role. He’s excellent at finding the gaps in the defense, and he is a fantastic athlete. He also crashes the glass with reckless abandon and can really defend. Nash would be stupid to go away from him moving forward, and I think Brown will continue to find the ball around the rim and somehow figure out a way to produce solid fantasy nights as a result of playing with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who have definitely both grown to love playing with Brown.  

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

 6/10 AC Projection Tables

For our FULL PROJECTIONS (Projections for every player on tonight's slate), start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!

Seth Curry (+1.5 Threes) MORE Three Pointers Made than Bogdan Bogdanovic

I understand that Bogdan lit it up in game 1, but I expect the Sixers to be very physical with him tonight and limit his three point looks. On the other side of the ball, I like Seth Curry a lot, ESPECIALLY with a +1.5 three point boost. I don’t really understand this line to be honest, as it wouldn’t even be that surprising if Curry had more threes outright. They play similar minutes and take similar numbers of threes, so it’s just about who hits them.

Nicolas Batum (+0.5 Rebounds) MORE Rebounds than Ivica Zubac

First of all, it’s very unclear what Zubac’s minutes will look like in this series. It’s assumed that he’ll get back to his normal minutes against a Rudy Gobert led Jazz team, but I could see Ty Lue mixing it up and keeping going with what’s working. Batum seems like a definite to get minutes due to his ability to guard multiple positions and stretch the floor, and he’s a good rebounder when he’s in there.

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!