NBA DFS Analytics: July 8th


Announcements

1) IT'S NBA FINALS TIME! Check out our NBA Finals Showdown Blueprint - the most extensive write-ups and lineup construction we have ever provided for you all!

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Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (7/8)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is PHO v MIL at 220 points. 

NBA FINALS Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. PHO Game 2)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Deandre Ayton ($9,200 DK and $12,500 FD)

There are a couple reasons why I like Ayton tonight. First of all, Brook Lopez will likely see fewer minutes tonight as a result of his inability to defend both Book and CP3 out of the pick and roll. This should open up a mismatch for Ayton in the paint, which I bet he’ll look to take advantage of. Secondly, I think the Bucks will be more aggressive in the pick and roll with CP3 and Booker tonight, which should open up some easy buckets for Ayton and the other secondary playmakers.

3. Mikal Bridges ($6,800 DK and $9,000 FD) *especially on FD*

Bridges is priced $500, 1k, and 1.5k fewer than Portis, Payne, and Crowder respectively - this means you’re getting excellent value for Bridges on Fanduel. He’s going to get more open looks than he did in game 1 if I had to guess, because the Bucks are going to send more help to Booker and CP3. He’s locked in for his minutes, and he should even see a slightly larger workload as a result of Saric being out.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. PJ Tucker ($4,600 DK and $7,500 FD) *especially on FD*

As I just talked about, I expect Brook Lopez to play fewer minutes tonight (If Coach Bud has a brain), which should open up more big-man minutes for PJ. In addition, if the Bucks go small (like I expect them to), that could open up some corner threes for PJ Tucker. Tucker is incredibly cheap on FD, but the minutes are there and so is his ceiling potential if he gets some shots to fall. 

3. Torrey Craig ($2,400 DK and $7,000 FD)

Craig should theoretically get his best chance to see some more minutes in game 2, as a result of Saric being ruled out with that torn ACL. Craig is able to match up with bigger players, so I think he could be a guy that Monty Williams goes to in order to give Ayton and Crowder/Bridges some more significant rest. Once he’s in there, he can always get hot from the three point line. Craig is ultra-cheap and will allow you to spend up elsewhere, although he is obviously a risky play.

NBA FINALS Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

Coach Mike Budenholzer has a reputation for not making adjustments in the playoffs, or at least not making them quickly enough. Well, after game 1, there is an unbelievably obvious change that has to be made, and I will be curious as to whether Bud does anything about it. In game 1, Chris Paul and Devin Booker absolutely demolished the switching defense of the Bucks. They ran a pick and roll at the top of the key, and once Brook Lopez was switched onto one of them, that player cleared out his teammates and went to work. Lopez did the best that he could, but he simply doesn’t have the lateral quickness to stay with CP3 or Booker, especially when there are 4 shooters spaced out around him so he doesn’t have much help. I have to imagine that Lopez will play fewer minutes tonight and that Bobby Portis will definitely eat away at his role a bit; Portis is better at defending the PnR, and he allows them to be a lot more versatile defensively. 

The other thing to keep in mind is Saric’s injury. This won’t have a large impact, since Saric obviously didn’t have a significant role on this team, but I do think it opens up a few extra minutes for some other guys. Perhaps Kaminsky gets a chance, but more likely I think Craig and Cam Johnson see more minutes and the Suns decide to go small. I wouldn’t put too much stock into Saric sitting tonight, but you should definitely keep it in mind.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)

DraftKings:

Fanduel:

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!