NBA DFS Analytics: July 3rd


Announcements

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our projections tables and Tier plays for that in Yesterday's Newsletter!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as a sneak peak of our ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (7/3)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is ATL v MIL at 217 points.

Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. ATL)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Jrue Holiday ($9,600 DK and $14,500 FD)

As we saw in game 5, both Khris and Jrue can have excellent fantasy nights together when Giannis isn’t in the lineup. I expect the same to happen again in game 6. Jrue was pretty unstoppable going to the hoop and on the defensive end in game 5, and I expect him to have a similar gameplan in game 6. He plays with more confidence when Giannis is out, so he should continue to do that again tonight.

3. Kevin Huerter ($7,800 DK and $12,500 FD)

Huerter didn’t shoot the ball well in game 5, but he had 7 assists, and I think he’ll have a bounce back game shooting the ball tonight. Every time he’s aggressive going to the rim and looking for his shot, he looks really good, and the Hawks are going to need him to continue to do so without Trae in the lineup again (or at least not himself), presumably.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Danilo Gallinari ($3,800 DK and $8,500 FD)

Galo had 19 points in 23 minutes in game 5, and I could definitely see him getting more touches tonight. He’s had a lot of success with isolation in the mid-post, and I think that’s something the Hawks will continue to look to if Trae either sits or isn’t himself tonight (one of which will definitely be the case). He’s priced behind Pj Tucker on DK and Cam Reddish on FD, so I think you’re getting solid value.

3. Onyeka Okongwu ($2,000 DK and $7,500 FD)

Okongwu is one of the cheapest legitimate plays on both sites (out of guys who will actually get minutes), so choosing him obviously allows you to spend up elsewhere. I’ve loved what he’s done in these playoffs, and he only played 5 fewer minutes than Clint Capela in game 5, so I think there’s a chance he takes even more of Capela’s workload tonight. He has great chemistry with Lou Williams, so I bet that’s why he played a lot.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

Giannis isn’t going to play tonight, and Trae likely won’t either. Even if he does, it won’t change much for me, because I still think Trae would be incredibly limited and would therefore spend a lot more time off the ball, opening up similar shots for the other guys. So, the minutes and offensive production should at least be somewhat similar to game 5 in tonight’s game. However, the prices have adjusted for the most part, so you won’t see such massive ownership numbers for guys like Jrue, Khris, and Bobby tonight.

I think one of the biggest developments in game 5 was how limited Capela was. He only played 21 minutes, and I think it’s because Lou Williams has incredible passing/lob chemistry with Okongwu. Whatever the reason, Onyeka played solid minutes in game 5, and he played well, so I would consider taking a flyer for him at the end of your lineup, especially considering how cheap he is on both sites.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)

DraftKings:

Fanduel:

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!