NBA DFS Analytics: July 20th


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Snake Drafts

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- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is PHO v MIL at 223 points. 

NBA FINALS Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. PHO Game 6)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Jrue Holiday ($9,600 DK and $13,500 FD)

Jrue Holiday had a breakout game of sorts in game 5, and I expect him to be aggressive again tonight, especially as he goes back home for a closeout game. He looks confident and comfortable despite his early woes in the series, and this game could be his best chance to perform well just because he’s going back home and just came off an awesome game 5 performance.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,800 DK and $16,000 FD) 

Giannis is such a sure thing in this series. He’s been completely unstoppable no matter what the Suns try to throw at him, and he’s going to continue to be dominant. Also, I like Giannis more at home just because of the free throw shooting disparity and general confidence difference. Giannis should have a fantastic game tonight with a chance to win the NBA finals.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Torrey Craig ($2,600 DK and $7,000 FD)

Torrey Craig is a big time punt play tonight, but I could see him breaking out. This is going to be a very physical game tonight, and Craig could get an early chance to see some minutes, especially if shots aren’t falling for either Bridges or Crowder and they do start to fall for Craig. I could see him getting in the 17 minute mark, which would allow him to really easily return value on his small price tag. 

3. Cam Johnson ($4,400 DK and $9,000 FD)

I continue to like Cam Johnson, who is going to see anywhere from 20-30 minutes tonight and has a chance to return value easily if he gets towards the higher range of that or gets some more opportunities to shoot threes. Monty is going to go with who’s playing well, so if Crowder or Bridges don’t get hot early, they could be at risk of losing minutes, which would bode well for Cam.

NBA FINALS Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

The first thing that jumps out to me about this game and the prices on both slates in Devin Booker’s price on FD compared to DK. He’s the 2nd highest priced player on DK, but the 6th highest priced player on DK, which is one of the largest discrepancies I’ve seen in these playoffs. Booker is going to have to play well if the Suns want to have a chance, because CP3 has not looked like himself and will probably continue to struggle with Jrue Holiday plastered on him tonight. 

Other than that little nugget, I really don’t know what’s going to happen tonight. This series has obviously been pretty unpredictable; normally I would say that the Suns will figure out a way to stay alive tonight, but I really don’t know if I trust them to do that tonight with how well the Bucks have played in these past 3 games.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)



To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!