NBA DFS Analytics: July 1st


Announcements

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our projections tables and Tier plays for that in Yesterday's Newsletter!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as a sneak peak of our ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (7/1)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is ATL v MIL at 215 points.

Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. ATL)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Jrue Holiday ($9,600 DK and $14,000 FD)

Obviously with Giannis out, Jrue and Khris are 2 of the largest beneficiaries. What makes me like Jrue more than Khris is the fact that he will likely see more of the ball handling duties today. Khris is always going to play his scoring role off the ball, and Giannis sitting will therefore open up tons of playmaking opportunities for Jrue tonight. They’ll want the ball in his hands to create offense, so that really makes me like him, especially since he’s priced lower than Khris on both sites.

3. Kevin Huerter ($8,400 DK and $12,500 FD) *especially on FD*

I’m going to assume Trae won’t play tonight, or at least won’t be himself; I think if he was able to play in game 4, he would have done everything possible to do so. So, I’m not sure what would have changed in 2 days, in which case Huerter will once again be in an excellent position to be one of the primary playmakers for this Hawks team tonight. I don’t expect Lou or Bogdan to play as well, so perhaps it’s Huerter who has the breakout game tonight.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Cam Reddish ($3,200 DK and $9,500 FD)

If Trae sits again, Cam should see a solid chunk of minutes. In his first legit minutes of the playoffs, 12-2-5 and looked very good. I think he’ll continue to see a significant role tonight, especially because he’s able to create his own shot, which is something the Hawks desperately need without Young in the lineup. At Cam’s price, I think you have to take a chance on him under the assumption that he could have a ceiling game.

3. Bryn Forbes ($2,600 DK and $7,000 FD)

Again, without Giannis, the Bucks will be looking to find offense in places they haven't had to look before. Forbes could definitely be a guy that sees more minutes as a result of Giannis sitting, because he’s a guy that you can actually run some offense for. He can come off screens, and his threat to shoot would theoretically open up opportunities for Khris, Jrue, Portis, and others to attack the lane. If Forbes gets minutes, he can always get hot, and he barely has to do anything to return value on his tiny price tag.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

It’s been a while since my lineup construction strategy has been related to injuries. But tonight, it’s basically ALL related to injuries. First for the Bucks. Giannis sitting will open up value for both Khris and Jrue first and foremost; they’ll be tasked with much larger offensive roles and will be in excellent positions to have big games. It’ll also help out Portis, who might get the start, and Forbes, who should be turned to for a bit of offense at different points.

For the Hawks, both Trae is a game-time decision. If Trae sits, we can assume that Bogdan, Lou, Reddish, and Huerter will take on the offensive load (like they did in the last game). Even if Trae plays, he likely won’t be himself and will be used as more of a decoy than anything, in which case all of the aforementioned guys would still get solid boosts.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for Fanduel (sneak peak)

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!