NBA DFS Analytics: July 17th


Announcements

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Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (7/17)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is PHO v MIL at 220 points. 

NBA FINALS Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. PHO Game 5)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Devin Booker ($10,200 DK and $12,000 FD) *Especially on FD*

Devin Booker is priced only 1k above Brook Lopez on FD, which I find pretty hilarious to be honest. Booker scored 42 points last game, and he could have scored more if he didn’t get into foul trouble. Now, he gets to go back home and play where he’s comfortable, so I really like him at 12k on fanduel. I don’t expect him to score as many points as he did last game, but he should still be quite productive.

3. Mikal Bridges ($6,800 DK and $9,500 FD)

Bridges is priced behind Crowder on both sites, even though I think he has a very solid chance at outperforming him. He only played 25 minutes last game, but I could really see him playing more tonight. He’s needed on the defensive end to guard Khris Middleton, and if he gets hot from three (which he has a better chance at doing while at home than on the road), he’ll see a lot more minutes than someone like Cam Johnson.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Pat Connaughton ($4,800 DK and $8,500 FD)

I’ve written about Pat Connaughton a lot lately, and it’s because he fills up the stat sheet pretty effortlessly and always has a chance to have a big scoring game with the number of open threes he gets as a result of the amount of attention that Giannis, Khris, and Jrue require. Pat has been getting in the 30 minute range, and I don’t see any reason why that would stop when he’s played so well.

3. Jeff Teague ($1,800 DK and $7,000 FD)

I’m taking a complete flyer on Teague tonight. I could see Chris Paul being a lot more aggressive from the jump tonight, and I think that could potentially lead to some foul trouble for Jrue. If that happens, Teague should get a few more minutes than normal, and if he plays well in those minutes, he could return value pretty easily. I think the slate is very top heavy tonight and I like taking Jeff because it allows you to pay up elsewhere.

NBA FINALS Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

This series has been a tale of two locations. When the Suns are at home, they look completely unstoppable and like they could sweep. When the Bucks play at home, though, it’s a completely different story. I think the most likely scenario tonight is that the Suns return to themselves and play a lot better than they did in games 3 and 4. This should bode well for the Suns’ stars, who should see higher scoring games if their team plays well as a whole.

The other thing to keep in mind tonight is Chris Paul. He had his worst game of the series in game 4, and he didn’t play well in game 3 either, so I’m expecting a definite turnaround tonight. He’s heard the noise about how he’s choked a little bit in MIL, and I think he’s going to play a lot better with his home fans. He scored 10 points last game and is going to come out firing. I just know it.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)

DraftKings:

Fanduel:

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!