NBA DFS Analytics: July 14th


Announcements

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Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (7/14)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is PHO v MIL at 221 points. 

NBA FINALS Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. PHO Game 4)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Deandre Ayton ($8,400 DK and $13,000 FD) *especially on DK*

Like Booker, Ayton played far fewer minutes in game 3 than he’s accustomed to playing. However, in Ayton’s case, it wasn’t because Monty wanted to give him rest, rather that he got into early foul trouble. Tonight, I expect Ayton to be a lot more careful defensively towards the beginning of the game in an attempt to not pick up any dumb fouls. His lack of minutes in game 3 (and therefore the solid rest that he got) should bode super well for his productivity tonight.

3. Jrue Holiday ($9,200 DK and $12,000 FD) *especially on FD*

Even though Jrue Holiday hasn’t necessarily looked comfortable or confident with Giannis back in the lineup, he’s still putting up some solid fantasy numbers. He always fills up the stat sheet, and I know for a fact that the entire coaching staff and roster of the Bucks is imploring Jrue to continue to be aggressive, especially going to the hoop. He’s shown flashes of great offensive play in this series, and he’s going to have to show some more tonight if they want to win.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Pat Connaughton ($4,200 DK and $8,500 FD)

Pat Connaughton has been the clear number 1 option off the bench for the Bucks in these finals, and he’ll definitely continue to be. Furthermore, he’s actually been fairly productive in his minutes, tallying rebounds, assists, defensive stats, as well as the occasional three point shot. I like him tonight especially, though, because I think the Suns will finally build more of a wall on Giannis. He’s gotten to the free throw line and the paint too easily, and I think PHO will finally take a stand tonight, which should force Giannis to become more of a facilitator, which bodes really well for a spot up shooter like Pat.

3. PJ Tucker ($3,400 DK and $7,500 FD)

As I just mentioned in Pat’s write up, I think the Suns will make an adjustment on Giannis tonight. He’s scored 40+ in 2 straight games, and he’s gotten to the rim far too easily. Tonight, I expect the Suns to send an extra body to Giannis in certain situations, which should force him to become more of a passer. If this happens, Pj Tucker should get more open cuts to the rim and 3 point looks than normal, and at his minuscule price-tag, I think he’s too much to pass up on.

NBA FINALS Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

You’ll notice that my top 2 Captain/MVP plays are from the Suns, while all of my dark horse plays are from the Bucks - this is very intentional. With Booker and Ayton sitting for a lot longer in game 3 than normal, they should be incredibly fresh and ready to go tonight. This will have a couple impacts; first, it means I really like both of them, obviously. Second, I think it decreases the bench guys’ values (Payne, Johnson, Craig, Kaminsky), because it’s unlikely that those guys are going to see the same workload tonight as they did in the last game. The Bucks, on the other hand, played Portis and Connaughton in big minutes during game 3, and I really like both of their chances to play big minutes again tonight.

The other thing to keep in mind with this game is how the Suns will adjust to Giannis. He’s had 2 straight 40+ point games, and I don’t think Monty Williams and PHO will be content with letting him do the same tonight; I think the Suns will force other players to step up for MIL, and that should mean good things for Pat Connaughton and Pj Tucker, two guys who should see some open corner threes tonight as a result of that adjustment.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)

 

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!