NBA DFS Analytics: July 11th


1) IT'S NBA FINALS TIME! Check out our NBA Finals Showdown Blueprint - the most extensive write-ups and lineup construction we have ever provided for you all!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!


- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is PHO v MIL at 221 points. 

NBA FINALS Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. PHO Game 3)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Khris Middleton ($9,600 DK and $13,500 FD)

Middleton had a rough shooting performance in game 2, but I guarantee you that his teammates are telling him to continue to be aggressive early and often, much like they told Jrue to be aggressive out of the gate in game 2 after having a sub-par game 1. I think Middleton will have a way better game tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out and gets super hot from the jump.

3. Deandre Ayton ($9,000 DK and $13,000 FD)

Despite the win, Ayton was noticeably upset at his performance during certain junctures during game 2. I think he’s going to come out with force tonight; he wasn’t as aggressive or forceful in the paint in game 2 as he was in game 1, and I guarantee that Monty Williams and Chris Paul are in his ear about it, which should result in a bounce back game from him tonight. He has 20-20 potential, and you never know when he could have one of those games.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Cam Johnson ($4,600 DK and $8,500 FD)

Cam Johnson played 18 minutes in game 2, but he probably would’ve gotten more if Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges hadn’t been so hot from the three point line. I could see Johnson getting more minutes tonight, especially since Torrey Craig has a good chance of not playing tonight after his knee injury. His absence could open up a few more minutes for Cam Johnson, who’s one of the two bench players that Monty Williams seems to trust.

3. Jae Crowder ($6,000 DK and $10,000 FD) 

Jae Crowder is always going to get rebounds, assists, and defensive stats. However, in game 2, he shot the ball pretty well also. I think he’s going to get even more open threes tonight, especially because I think the Bucks will place a little more pressure on Bridges as opposed to Crowder. After Bridges’ game 2 performance, I think the Bucks will be really hellbent on not letting him catch it easily on the 3 point line, which should only open up more space for a guy like Crowder.

NBA FINALS Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

I think the biggest thing to keep in mind tonight is the change of scenery for the Bucks. As is often the case in these playoffs, the game can look VERY different after the first 2. The Bucks are most certainly going to respond tonight, and I’ll probably play more Bucks players tonight (especially high tier players) for that reason. I really like both Giannis and Khris, and I’m going to build my lineups around them as opposed to the Suns’ stars. 

The other thing to keep in mind is the bench play on both of these teams. The Suns only really play 2 players consistently from their bench: Cam Payne and Cam Johnson. Payne is only locked in for about 10 minutes, though, so Johnson becomes (in my opinion), the only playable guy on the Suns’ bench. Milwaukee, on the other hand, also has only really played one guy consistently off their bench: Pat Connaughton. The other Bucks’ bench guys (Portis, Forbes, Teague, etc) have played very inconsistently and I don’t like any of them tonight, so I really like both Cam Johnson and Pat Connaughton.

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)



To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!