NBA DFS Analytics: February 26th


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QUICK HITTERS (FEB 26th)

- Today's main slate features 9 games, LAC, MEM & SAC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is GS v CHA at 232.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is UTA v MIA at 217 points.

 Need to Know:

Diallo, Horford Out: This is the biggest news of the day. As has been the case much of the season, there should be some really strong value plays in OKC tonight. Isaiah Roby ($4,900 DK & $4,600 FD) should step into Horford's place as a starter tonight. Even if he doesn't, I think he sees close to 30 minutes and has been an excellent points per minute scorer this season. The second obvious look here is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DK & $8,000 FD). He is wildly underpriced (especially on FD) and coming off a 60+ DK point performance. With Horford and Diallo out, he should see even higher usage tonight. The issue with these 2 plays is that everyone knows they're strong plays. We have Roby projected at 40% ownership in GPPs tonight and SGA at 33%. I still think you need to find space for one, if not both of them in your GPP lineup, but perhaps a more interesting GPP look from this game could be Darius Bazley ($5,200 DK & $5,800 FD). Bazley is coming off a season worst 0/8 shooting performance, which should drive his ownership under 20% on a night where I think he sees 30+ minutes and puts up 10+ shots.

Cody Zeller doubtful: With Zeller almost certainly out tonight, Bismack Biyombo ($3,300 DK & $3,500 FD) becomes an interesting look as a filler against a Golden State team that ranks just below average (16th) in salary adjusted DvP to centers. Biyombo put up a really nice 11-2-3 line in 26 minutes last time the Hornets played, and would be a must play if you think he can replicate that production again tonight. Keep an eye on the Hornets starting lineup tonight to see if Biyombo takes Zeller's place or if the Hornets choose to go small instead.

Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro Questionable: If you've been following my writing this year, you'll know that I love to think about injury news from a defensive perspective. Not a lot of DFS users think this way so ownership percentages tend to be lower than they should be. I think this game in particular has some real potential to provide value if Bam is ruled out. I don't see a situation where Precious Achiwua or Kelly Olynyk are able to compete with Rudy Gobert ($7,200 DK & $8,000 FD) down low. Gobert continues to be underpriced on DK and if this game stays close (the Heat are 4-0 in their last 4), I think Gobert has a big night. We have him projected at 5% ownership; If Adebayo sits, he becomes an extremely interesting GPP look. It's also worth mentioning that if Bam does sit, Achiwua ($3,000 DK & $3,500 FD) is the site minimum on both sites and would be a strong look as a cheap filler play tonight. 

Valanciunas Questionable: Definitely keep an eye on this one tonight. I don't love the Grizzles matchup against what will probably be a fired up Clippers team, but if Val sits, guys like Clarke and Tillman become interesting looks at their price points.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Clint Capela ($7,800 DK and $8,200 FD)

Spotlighting Capela tonight was one of the easier decisions I've had. I think he is an excellent look in both GPP and cash contests for a number of reasons.

1) He has a GREAT matchup tonight. The Thunder rank 25th in salary adjusted DvP to the center position, and that's with Horford healthy. With Horford out tonight, Capela should have no trouble securing his near nightly double-double. 

2) Rebounding. The Thunder rank 28th in DREB allowed per game, and 25th in OREB allowed per game this season. Keep in mind this is again with Horford healthy. They are an awful rebounding team going up against perhaps the best rebounder in the NBA.

3) Pace. Pace is always an important thing to look for in DFS. The Thunder play at the 21st highest pace in the league. Combine that with the fact that the Hawks have recently played in a number of high scoring games (8th most points allowed per game) and I think this is a high scoring and high paced game tonight. 

4) Finally, the all important ownership %. We currently have Capela projected to be owned at 13% in GPP contests tonight. It may end up being a bit higher with the Horford news, but honestly, I think getting him at anything under 25% is an absolute steal. He has easy 45-50 point potential tonight. 

We currently have Capela projected for 46.3 DK Fantasy points. Giving him a projected +- of +4.2.

    TONIGHT'S TOP 10:
    DRAFTKINGS PROJECTED +- (VALUE) AND POINTS

    If you want to see the full tables for both DraftKings and Fanduel, and see how these players fit into your optimal lineup, be sure to download the datasheet and optimizer from the links at the top of the newsletter!

    DraftKings Top 10 Projected +- (Value)

    Why we use a dynamic approach to calculating projected +-

      Top 10 Players, Projected + - (Value)
    RNK Player Proj +-
    1 Kyle Lowry +6.3
    2 Clint Capela +4.2
    3 Isaiah Roby +3.8
    4 Malik Monk +3.3
    5 Saben Lee +3.3
    6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +3.1
    7 Marvin Bagley III +3.1
    8 Chris Paul +2.8
    9 Paul George +2.7
    10 Mason Plumlee +2.6

     

    DraftKings Top 10 Projected Points

      Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
    RNK Player Proj PTs
    1 Damian Lillard 55.1
    2 LeBron James 53.2
    3 Stephen Curry 50.3
    4 Jimmy Butler 50.1
    5 Domantas Sabonis 50.0
    6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 49.8
    7 Trae Young 49.8
    8 Paul George 48.5
    9 Clint Capela 46.3
    10 Kawhi Leonard 44.9

     

    Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

    Out Players

    • Christian Wood (O) HOU
    • Marcus Smart (O) BOS
    • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
    • George Hill (O) OKC
    • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
    • Otto Porter jr. (O) CHI
    • Blake Griffin (O) DET
    • Delon Wright (O) DET
    • Hassan Whiteside (O) SAC
    • Devonte Graham (O) CHA
    • Anthony Davis (O) LAL
    • Harry Giles (O) POR
    • CJ McCollum (O) POR
    • Jusuf Nurkic (O) POR

    Questionable Players

    • Cam Reddish (Q) ATL
    • Dario Saric (Q) PHO
    • Saddiq Bey (Q) DET
    • Lebron James (P) LAL
    • Dennis Schroeder (P) LAL
    • Kyle Kuzma (P) LAL


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