NBA DFS Analytics: February 24th


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Updated at 4:52 pm to fix an error in sourced data for various minute projections.

QUICK HITTERS (FEB 24TH)

- Today's main slate features 9 games, ATL, BOS, CLE, DET, GS, MIN and TOR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is GS v IND at  230.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIA v TOR at 214.5 points.

 Need to Know:

Derozan, Gay, Johnson, Vassell, White all Out: This is massive news. With all of these guys out due to Covid protocols, it opens up tons of usage and minutes for guys like Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker, Trey Lyles, Luka Semanic, Etc. All of these guys are underpriced on DK and FD as their prices have not adjusted given the injury news. Make sure you keep an eye on the starting lineup, because that should be very indicative of what the minutes will look like. Mills, Murray, and Walker are all LOCKS for increased playing time and usage no matter what the starting lineup is. I think in a cash lineup, both Murray ($7400 DK & $7500 FD) and Walker ($3,700 DK & $3,500 FD) are must plays, and I think you still need one if not both of them in your GPP lineup. Again, monitoring the starting lineup here to find value is key.

Collins Questionable, Reddish Out: Keep an eye on Collins tonight, because him sitting would open up significant minutes for other bigs in Atlanta; Clint Capela (7,800 DK and 8,200 FD) would be the obvious play here, and looks like a strong play tonight even with Collins in the lineup. If Collins sits, Onyeka Okongwu (3,000 DK and 3,700 FD) could be a sleeper play as well; He is the site minimum on DK and just above it on FD. I also like Solomon Hill (3,000 DK and 3,500 FD) if Collins sits. Players with his player profile have absolutely killed the Celtics this season. Finally, Tony Snell is wildly underpriced, played 33 minutes last night, and is a good under the radar play tonight. 

Wright, Griffin still Out: Saddiq Bey (5,600 DK and 5,300 FD) is still significantly underpriced with Wright and Griffin out of the lineup - he led their team in minutes last game and is very versatile, so I expect him to play a lot again tonight against a Pelicans team who has some tough matchups with  Ingram and Zion (I think Saddiq is one of DET’s best options to guard those guys). Josh Jackson (6,000 DK and 5,100 FD), like Bey, is underpriced (especially on FD), and he has a great matchup against a team that has really struggled against players with Jackson’s player profile this season. Finally, I still think Saben Lee ($3,800 DK & $5,000 FD) is too cheap on DraftKings for the way he's been playing lately. He was one of our top 5 value plays last night and is in the top 25 again tonight. 

Kemba Out: The Celtics rotation is very tough to predict at this point, but you can bank on Payton Pritchard (3,900 DK and FD) getting more minutes tonight with Kemba out. He’s in a very good matchup against an ATL team who really struggles to guard player’s with Pritchard’s player profile - Trae Young will likely have trouble guarding Pritchard in the paint. I also expect other guys to pick up their scoring for the Celtics tonight besides JT & JB; they’ve played far too much isolation ball and it’s been a large factor in their slump. I expect them to do a better job getting everyone else involved. 

Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic both Questionable: Gonna have to keep yourself updated on this one, but if one or both of these guys don’t play, Kendrick Nunn ($6,00 DK & $5,600 FD) is still too cheap. I said it last time out and i'll say it again. He has 6-8X potential with Herro and Dragic out. Keep an eye on these injuries. 

Gordon, Oladipo both Questionable, Cousins Waived: Same situation as with Miami here. If these guys don’t play, Nwaba, Tate, and Wall should all be solid plays as they would likely see more minutes and usage. The prices are starting to adjust, but you should still be able to find value if you look out for the starting lineup here.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Tonight's Player Spotlight is Wendell Carter Jr (5,800 DK and 5,400 FD)

Carter is a strong play tonight for a few reasons.

1) Carter is coming off of a very productive game where he had 18 points and 13 rebounds, and now he’s got an excellent matchup against a dreadful Minnesota defense that ranks in the bottom 5 in the league in both pace and points allowed.

2) The Timberwolves have been poor at defending the paint, in 3 of their past 4 they've been torched by Giannis, gave up a near double double to Nerlens Noel and allowed Sabonis to put up a ridiculous 36-10-16 line. 

3) Carter is still underpriced with Markkanen and Porter Jr. out. He is getting back into his groove (now 5 games back from injury) and should see big minutes tonight. 

Virtually everything is pointing towards Carter having a big night, but we only have him projected at 15.9% ownership in DK GPP contests. He should be a strong consideration for both cash and GPP lineups tonight.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic
  • Kris Dunn
  • De’Andre Hunter
  • Kemba Walker
  • Andre Drummon
  • Larry Nance
  • Demarcus Cousins
  • Christian Wood
  • George Hill
  • Devonte Graham
  • Anthony Davis
  • Dennis Schroder

Questionable Players

  • Taurean Prince (P)
  • PJ Tucker (P)
  • Steven Adams (P)
  • Gordon Hayward (Q)

Tonight's Top 10:
Draftkings Projected +- (Value) and Points

If you want to see the full tables for both DraftKings and Fanduel, and see how these players fit into your optimal lineup, be sure to download the datasheet and optimizer from the links at the top of the newsletter!

DraftKings Top 10 Projected +-

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Jarrett Allen 47.5
2 Chris Paul 45.1
3 Malcolm Brogdon 45.7
4 Wendell Carter Jr. 34.6
5 Tony Snell 21.4
6 Luka samanic 21.1
7 Kyle Lowry 39.7
8 Zach LaVine 51.0
9 Saddiq Bey 32.4
10 Thaddeus Young 33.7

 

DraftKings Top 10 Projected Points

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Domantas Sabonis 54.3
2 LeBron James 51.6
3 Stephen Curry 51.1
4 Zach LaVine 51.0
5 Karl-Anthony Towns 50.8
6 Jimmy Butler 48.4
7 Trae Young 47.8
8 Jarrett Allen 47.5
9 Jayson Tatum 47.0
10 Malcolm Brogdon 45.7

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See you tomorrow ~2 hours before tipoff!