Hey everyone! Before we get into today's newsletter I just wanted to let you know we are releasing our Advanced Lineup Optimizer this Sunday, February 28th! It will be a completely revamped optimizer with a toggle bar, strategy guide, and improved formatting. You'll have the ability to customize your lineups based on criteria such as ownership/ minute projections, player usage rates, matchup statistics, potential/consistency ratings and more! For a sneak peak at the advanced optimizer, you can check out this video here: Analytic City Advanced Lineup Optimizer Sneak Peak
Lineup Optimizer, Datasheet & Links
QUICK HITTERS (FEB 23RD)
- Today's main slate features 9 games, DAL and WAS are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v BKN at 242 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DET v ORL at 210 points.
Need to Know:
Porzingis, Kleber Out: Significant news here tonight, as Kleber has been ruled out in addition to Porzingis. Last night, Kleber started and played 27 minutes, so his absence should open up even more opportunities for the other Mavericks. Dwight Powell is still going for the site minimum on both sites ($3,000 DK & $3,500 FD). He started, played 27 minutes, and scored 16.5 DK Fpts last night. With Kleber out tonight, he should have no problem returning at least 5X value and has 8-10X potential. The downside to this is how highly owned he will be, but at the site minimum he seems to cheap to pass up on. The pivot from Powell would be Willy-Cauley Stein ($3,100 DK & $3,700 FD). Stein is nearly as cheap and has been a better points per minute producer on the season then Powell. I don't think he steps into the starting lineup, but I do think he sees lower ownership then Powell and could play 20-25 minutes. Monitor who starts in Kleber's place tonight. A final point I would make about the Mavericks is that Luka Doncic ($11,200 DK & FD) had a really rough night last night, scoring just over 40 DK points. I think this does 2 things. First, it should drive down Luka's ownership percentage. We currently have him projected for just under 25% ownership, and we all know Luka has huge potential on any given night. Second, Doncic should come our aggressively against a Celtics team that is in a bad place defensively and still without Marcus Smart. I think Luka is an excellent look as your star tonight.
Green, Harris, Millsap, Dozier Out: With these 4 out last game, Zeke Nnaji ($3,100 DK & $3,800 FD) started and played 30 minutes. That was about the only thing he did, scoring just 7pts and grabbing 3 boards... But, if Nnaji starts again, I like him as another potential pivot from the highly owned Powell in GPP contests. I think he plays between 25-30 minutes again tonight if he starts, and the Nuggets will need some height to compete on the boards. Portland is also giving up a ton of DREBs this year (24th in the league) and rank 22nd in salary adjusted DvP to small forwards. Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK & $10,500) has been off recently, but I think he turns it around against a Portland defense that ranks 27th in points allowed per game this year.
Ellington, Griffin, Wright Out for Pistons: The Pistons have been awful this year, at 8-22 they're on of the worst teams in the NBA. But for DFS users, guys like Grant, Bey, and Plumlee can be a goldmine if you get them at the right time. With the above 3 out tonight, it should open up a TON of minutes for Pistons role players. Saben Lee ($3,200 DK & $5,000 FD) is wildly underpriced on DK, and almost has to be in your lineups at such a cheap price. He played 33 minutes last game and will either move into a starting or 6th man role tonight. Two other good looks are Josh Jackson ($5,800 DK & $5,100 FD) and Jerami Grant ($7,600 DK & FD). I think Detroit should be able to keep this game competitive, but even if they don't they don't have enough healthy bodies for Grant or Jackson not to see big minutes tonight.
Stephen Curry, Kevon Looney, James Wiseman Questionable: Not sure what's going on with Steph, but if he sits, it obviously opens up opportunities for value. Brad Wanamaker ($3,400 DK & $3,900 FD) is too cheap if Curry sits. he played 34 minutes and scored just over 30 DK points against the Hornets last game Curry was ruled out. I also think it's worth monitoring Wiseman and Looney. If either of those guys play, I think there's almost no way to justify keeping either Paschal or Toscano-Anderson in your lineup, as both of them would stand to lose minutes.
In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.
To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!
Tonight's player spotlight is Daniel Theis ($4,800 DK & $4,900 FD). We have him projected for 28.74 DK Points at ~4% ownership.
Theis is a great GPP look tonight for 3 reasons.
1) He has a great matchup. The Mavericks are without Porzingis and Kleber tonight, and even with those two they aren't a particularly good rebounding team. They rank 22nd in DREBs allowed and 19th in OREBs allowed. Theis should have no problem going to work against the likes of Powell and Willy Cauley Stein on the glass. Dallas also ranks dead last (30th) in salary adjusted DvP to power forwards.
2) He's undervalued. Theis has played 33 and 39 minutes in his last 2 games. Over those 2 games, he has averaged 29.25 DK points. At a price tag of just $4,800, Theis would need just 24 points to return 5X value tonight. Even using our dynamic pricing expectations, he would need 28.3 points to return value.
3) Potential and low ownership. Theis has an AC potential rating of 59.4. Given his currently salary and previous performances, he has solid potential to have a huge performance tonight (*huge performance defined as 6.5X value). Not only that, he should see extremely low ownership tonight, which is critical tom consider when constructing a GPP lineup.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
- Bogdan Bogdanovic (O) ATL
- Kevin Love (O) CLE
- Andre Drummond (O) CLE
- Larry Nance Jr. (O) CLE
- Cole Anthony (O) ORL
- Aaron Gordon (O) ORL
- Marcus Smart (O) BOS
- Mitchell Robinson (O) NY
- Kevin Durant (O) BKN
- Glenn Robinson III (O) SAC
- Jrue Holiday (O) MIL
- De'Angelo Russell (O) MIN
- Jarrett Culver (O) MIN
- Cam Reddish (Q) ATL
- Rajon Rondo (P) ATL
- Taurean Prince (D) CLE
- Austin Rivers (Q) NY
- Nerlens Noel (P) NY
- Seth Curry (P) PHI
- Kyle Lowry (Q) TOR
- Tyler Johnson (Q) BKN
- Timothe Luwawu-Carrabot (P) BKN
- Jeff Green (Q) BKN
- Harrison Barnes (Q) SAC
Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points
DraftKings Top 10
|Top 10 Players, Projected PTs|
FanDuel Top 10
|Top 10 Players, Projected PTs|
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See you tomorrow ~2 hours before tipoff!