NBA DFS Analytics: February 22nd


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QUICK HITTERS (FEB 22ND)

- Today's main slate features 6 games, OKC is the only team on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is DAL v MEM at 229.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is OKC v MIA at 213.5 points.

 Need to Know:

Markkanen, Porter Out again: Zach LaVine (9,500 DK and 9,800 FD) looks to be a great play tonight. He had a huge outing last game, and I expect him to keep the momentum going against a Houston team who has struggled mightily against players with LaVine’s player profile. Wendell Carter (5,300 DK and 5,400 FD) is fairly undervalued in terms of projected $/point and he’s facing a Houston team that has been 2nd to last in the league at defending Centers when using our salary adjusted DvP metric. Houston will also be without Cousins and Woods, which should open up the middle for Carter. Finally Tomas Satoransky (4,200 DK and 3,900 FD) is a look as a sleeper tonight as well. We have him projected to run you 182 dollars per point, which is excellent value. 

Cousins, Oladipo, Wood Out: Cousins being out is huge news here. Both Danuel House (4,700 DK and 4,500 FD) and Sterling Brown (4,100 DK and 3,900) should see increased minutes, and they get incredible value from their player profiles due to the fact that Chicago has trouble defending almost anyone that steps on the court. Look for Houston to go a bit small tonight with Danuel House playing more big man minutes; Cousins and Wood are both out, leaving Houston very thin in the front court. House could find himself getting more open looks from three than he normally does due to his match up. In general, I think it's hard to go wrong tonight with Houston's role players. All of them should see big minutes against a Bulls defensive giving up the 27th most PPG in the league.

Al Horford Out: This is pretty big news. It’s unclear to me who will start in Horford’s place, so make sure you keep an eye out for the starting lineup. OKC is already fairly limited at the big man position, but I could see Isaiah Roby (4,900 DK and 4,600 FD) and Hamidou Diallo (5,600 DK and 5,300 FD) getting increased minutes and usage. Both these guys are really strong plays, but I especially like Diallo, who should see low ownership due to his recent performances and is a stat stuffer when he gets big minutes.

Kristaps Porzingis Questionable: Keep your eyes on this one - would be significant news if he doesn’t play. If he does play, his questionable designation will drive his ownership down and I think he’s a solid option tonight in a great match up against a Memphis team that struggles a lot against stretch bigs. If he sits, look for Cauley-Stein (3,200 DK and 3,700 FD) to make a potential start. Not much more to be said other than that you need to  be active with the news on this one!

Tyler Herro Questionable: Same situation here. You must keep your eyes glued to the injury news before the game tonight, because if Herro doesn’t play, it opens up opportunities for Kendrick Nunn (5,700 DK and 5,600 FD) and Andre Igoudala (3,400 DK and 3,500 FD) to see increased minutes. Kendrick is still too cheap with Herro out and Andre has fantastic value from his player profile tonight. 

 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Our Player Spotlight tonight is Lebron James ($10,400 DK & FD)

With so many great stars on the board tonight (Luka, Lillard, Westbrook, Beal), picking the right stars is critical to a strong DFS night. Lebron could be an excellent play as your star tonight for multiple reasons.

  1. Schroeder and Davis are both out, so Lebron is VERY MUCH the primary playmaker tonight. They don’t really have anyone else that they can give the ball to and facilitate or score by themselves (maybe Kuzma sometimes?)
  2. Wizards are AWFUL on defense. They have the fastest pace in the NBA and allow the second most points. They are always a step slow to rotate on the help side which will bode well for Lebron taking it to the hoop tonight. 
  3. The Wizards rank last in the league in salary adjusted DVP against PG/SF. Simply put, they don’t have anyone who can remotely check Lebron defensively.
  4. The Lakers have lost 3 of their last 4 games (all without AD), and Lebron will take that personally. He’s struggled to win without AD (and the analysts have certainly not been shy to let the world know that), so I think he puts that narrative to rest tonight with a resounding performance. It’s just a matter of whether he wants to go off tonight or not, and I think he chooses to bring energy given his team’s recent performance.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Lauri Markkanen (O)
  • Otto Porter (O)
  • Victor Oladipo (O)
  • Demarcus Cousins (O)
  • Christian Wood (O)
  • Dillon Brooks (O)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr (O)
  • Caleb Martin (O)
  • Avery Bradley (O)
  • Goran Dragic (O)
  • Al Horford (O)
  • Anthony Davis (O)
  • Dennis Shroder (O)
  • Ish Smith (O)

Questionable Players

  • Pj Tucker (P)
  • Kristaps Porzingis (Q)
  • Josh Richardson (P)
  • Devonte Graham (D)
  • Tyler Herro (Q)
  • Gabe Vincent (P)
  • Lebron James (P)
  • Kyle Kuzma (P)
  • Markieff Morris (P)

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Luka Doncic 64.9
2 LeBron James 56.4
3 Damian Lillard 54.1
4 Zach LaVine 53.5
5 Russell Westbrook 49.0
6 Kristaps Porzingis 47.7
7 Jimmy Butler 46.6
8 Chris Paul 45.7
9 John Wall 45.3
10 Bradley Beal 45.0

 

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Luka Doncic 59.9
2 LeBron James 51.2
3 Zach LaVine 50.9
4 Damian Lillard 50.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis 47.5
6 Bradley Beal 44.7
7 Russell Westbrook 44.0
8 Jimmy Butler 44.0
9 Chris Paul 44.0
10 John Wall 43.3

 

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