NBA DFS Analytics: February 20th


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Any guesses how many points this lineup sent to me by one of our users scored after optimized?! Send us your guess on Twitter.
Optimizer Results
(Also, seems like they could check out our tutorial on how to update player injuries!)

QUICK HITTERS (FEB 20th)

- Today's main slate features 5 games, PHO, MEM, GS, & CHI are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is POR v WAS at 242 points. The game with the lowest over/under is  LAL v MIA at  208.5 points.

 Need to Know:

Devonte' Graham, Caleb Martin Out. Hayward Probable: I'm going to go ahead and assume Hayward will play tonight, but if for whatever reason he doesn't ,you should heavily stack Hornets players tonight. Even with Hayward playing, the Hornets will still be missing Graham and Martin, two players who cumulatively average over 48 minutes per game. This means two things: 

1) Hornets starters (especially guards) will see huge minutes tonight. Coming off 6 games rest in a bigtime matchup against the Warriors, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the likes of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward all see upwards of 35 minutes. 

2) Hornets role players will also see big minutes. Guys like Cody Martin (back from absence) Jaden McDaniels, and Miles Bridges should also see close to 25 minutes. 

Looking at this team, I legitimately don't think there's a bad play, but my two favorites are Terry Rozier ($7,900 DK & $7,000 FD) and PJ Washington ($5,300 DK & 5,600 FD). Terry has been on an absolute tear lately, and should get up 20+ shots tonight. Washington has been out the past few for the Hornets, which could drive down his ownership percentage in a game where I still think he sees a ton of minutes. I also really like LaMelo Ball at his $7,800 price tag on FD, but have a harder time at $8,800 on DK. 

Brooks, Anderson, Clarke, Allen Out: This is obviously the news of the day. I think Jonas Valanciunas becomes a very obvious cash lineup play tonight. He has been great the past couple games and should step into a huge usage role tonight. Apart from that, I again don't think you can go wrong with a single Grizzlies player tonight. They are all vastly underpriced and every single one of them should see significant minutesOne thing I would note is that all these guys (Morant, Bane, Melton, Tillman, etc) will be highly owned, and Phoenix is the best defensive team in the NBA. I think you have to take a few of them, but I don't mind fading most of them in a GPP lineup.

Schroeder & Anthony Davis Out: The Lakers continue to lose high usage players, which will continue to open up opportunities across the board. Lebron ($10,200 DK & $10,500 FD) is expensive, but certainly worth considering with how many touches he should see tonight. It's also critical to understand the defensive importance of both these guys. The Lakers are 9th in salary adjusted DvP to the PG position and 8th to the PF position. Tyler Herro ($6,300 DK & FD) has been streaky recently, but he's getting up so many shots (17 per game over his last 4) that I think he's tough to pass on with Schroeder out tonight.

Barnes, Holmes Questionable: This is a must watch situation for any serious DFS player tonight. The final status of Barnes and Holmes will be huge for 2 reasons. First off, Nemanja Bjelica ($4,700 & $5,100) is simply way too cheap if Holmes is out. He went for 25-8-3 and could certainly put up similar numbers against a porous Chicago defense. Secondarily, De'Aaron Fox has been so bad recently that his price has dipped to $8,000 on Dk and $8,100 on FD. If Holmes plays, he is a perfect fit for a big fantasy night from Fox, as they run the pick and roll as effectively as any guard big combo in the league. 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Kevon Looney (O) GS
  • James Wiseman (O) GS
  • Avery Bradley (O) MIA
  • Goran Dragic (O) MIA
  • Chimezie Metu (O) SAC
  • CJ McCollum (O) POR
  • Jusuf Nurkic (O) POR
  • Harry Giles III (O) POR
  • Ish Smith (O) WAS

Questionable Players

  • Kyle Kuzma (P) LAL
  • LeBron James (P) LAL
  • Markieff Morris (P) LAL
  • Gabe Vincent (P) MIA

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

Tonight's player spotlight is Enes Kanter. Kanter ($6,900 DK & $6,200 FD) is in a great spot tonight for 3 reasons. 

1) Harry Giles is out. In the past 2 games since Giles went down, Kanter has played 33 and 30 minutes, well above his season average of 25.1. The Trail Blazers don't have another playable big on their roster and unless they go small, Kanter has to be on the court. 

2) Robin Lopez cannot compete with Kanter on the boards. Last time these 2 teams met, Kanter grabbed 15 boards on his way to a 40.3 DK point performance. As one of the premier rebounders in the NBA, the Wizards simply don't have a player on their roster who can compete with Kanter on the glass. I suspect the Wizards try and go small to get Kanter off the court, in which case he should dominate in the post. 

3) The Wizards rank 29th in pace and 28th in defensive rebounds allowed per game. In other words, the stats back it up. We currently have Kanter projected for 36 DK points and 35 FD points tonight against the Wizards. 

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership
RNK Player Proj Own
1 Ja Morant 45.4%
2 Desmond Bane 36.3%
3 De'Anthony Melton 34.4%
4 LeBron James 33.5%
5 Malik Monk 32.2%
6 Tyus Jones 30.0%
7 Jonas Valanciunas 29.8%
8 LaMelo Ball 28.8%
9 Terry Rozier 28.2%
10 Bradley Beal 27.9%


FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership
RNK Player Proj Own
1 Ja Morant 48.5%
2 Desmond Bane 38.9%
3 LaMelo Ball 36.9%
4 De'Anthony Melton 36.8%
5 Malik Monk 34.4%
6 LeBron James 33.6%
7 Tyus Jones 32.1%
8 Jonas Valanciunas 31.9%
9 Terry Rozier 31.9%
10 Bradley Beal 31.6%

 

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