NBA DFS Analytics: February 19th

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To Download Today's Lineup Optimizer and Datasheet, Click Here.
Our Datasheet is Now Available in Google Sheets! Find That Here.
Find Our Articles on Advanced Analytics Here. 
Find our YouTube Tutorial on How to Use the Optimizer and Datasheet Here
To Check Out Our How to Build Your OWN DFS Model Series, Click Here.


- Today's main slate features 9 games, MIL and TOR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v OKC at 231.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MEM v DET at 220.5 points.

Need to Know:

Steven Adams Doubtful: I wanted to bring this up for 2 reasons. First and foremost, assuming Adams sits, it opens up a great opportunity for Willy Hernangomez ($3,900 DK & $4,400 FD). I also think Jaxson Hayes ($3,000 DK & $3,600 FD) has a chance to step into some significant minutes. Hayes has averaged over 1.1 DK PPM this season and would be a must play if you think he gets anywhere near the 20-25 minute mark tonight. On the other side of the ball, the Pelicans have been 4th in salary adjusted DvP to the C position this year, have given up the fewest DREBs per game, and the second fewest OREBs per game. Simply put, they've been absolutely dominant on the glass this year. Adams is phenomenal at boxing out, and not a bad rebounder himself (7.7 per game) with him out, the glass should open up for the likes of Ayton ($6,700 DK & $6,600 FD) and even Saric ($3,600 DK & $4200 FD) who could be a very sneaky (but risky) play at such a low price.

George, Leonard, Kennard, Batum Questionable: This is gonna be really tough to manage. It's the only 10pm game of the night, so you basically have 3 options if no news comes out by 7.

1) Make assumptions about who you think will sit, and build your lineup off that.

2) Avoid the game entirely.

3) Keep flexibility in your lineup until news does come out, and adjust accordingly. 

There's really no way around the fact that if you want to be competitive in NBA DFS tonight, you need to monitor this situation. I'm hesitant to even throw out names with so many guys questionable, but looking at DraftKings pricing, I like the idea of leaving some room in my lineup for these potential pivots.

Lou Williams/Jordan Clarkson

Donovan Mitchell/Paul George

Royce O'Neele/Reggie Jackson

Drummond, Love, Nance, Prince Out for Cavs: The Cavs will essentially be playing with just 2 bigs tonight, Allen and McGee. Jarrett Allen ($6,800 DK & $7,400 FD) is still to cheap on DK, and I stand by my comment that this is one of the last few times you'll be able to get him for under 7K this season. 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Gary Harris (O) DEN
  • Paul Millsap (O) DEN
  • Kevon Looney (O) GS
  • James Wiseman (O) GS
  • Cole Anthony (O) ORL
  • Aaron Gordon (O) ORL
  • Bogdan Bodganovic (O) ATL
  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Marcus Smart (O) BOS
  • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
  • Otto Porter (O) CHI
  • Blake Griffin (O) DET
  • George Hill (O) OKC
  • De'Angelo Russell (O) MIN
  • Jarrett Culver (O) MIN

Questionable Players

  • Will Barton (Q) DEN
  • JyMychal Green (Q) DEN
  • Draymond Green (Q) GS
  • James Ennis II (Q) ORl
  • Evan Fournier (P) ORL
  • Jaylen Brown (Q) BOS
  • Dillon Brooks (Q) MEM
  • De'Anthony Melton (Q) MEM
  • Kyle Lowry (Q) TOR
  • Mike Conley (Q) UTA

NBA DFS Strategy

In this section we will cover some strategies to consider while building your NBA DFS lineups.

You may have noticed in today's datasheet we have now included a dynamic system when calculating projected +-. This is a higher level strategy that was brought to my attention by Facebook u/JackSavage. Shout out to him for much of the following insight.

The rationale behind dynamic the approach is that, simply put, a 5X system expects too little from your lower salaried players and too much from your high salaried players. Thinking about it another way, for the very few times a season a 10K+ player hits 70 points (thus 7Xing value) there are dozens of times cheaper players manage to 7X, or even 10X value.

What is really comes down to is this, if your goal is to win a GPP contest, a 3K player 6Xing value isn't going to cut it, whereas a 10K player 6Xing could very well be a key piece in a GPP winning lineup. A highly priced player returning 5X on his value is MUCH more valuable to you than a 3K player returning 5X on his value. But of course, this doesn't change the way an optimizer creates an 'optimal' lineup. So, how should you change your lineup construction. 

1) Avoid cramming cheap players into your lineup just because you think they might 5X value. If you don't see a legitimate chance for a cheaper player to 6-7X value, avoid them entirely. 

2) Pick stars you feel confident can return 5-6X. Think about it this way, if you find 3 stars who return value at the top end, you're already halfway to cashing with 5 roster spots left to go. 

3) Use our dynamic projected +- values from the datasheet. These give you a perfect sense of who is really creating value based on exactly what we discussed above. If you can create a lineup of players with high projected +- values, you should be in a strong position to succeed. 

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Dynamic Projected +-

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Nikola Jokic 60.4
2 Kyle Lowry 40.4
3 Jaxson Hayes 22.9
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo 58.7
5 Pascal Siakam 43.9
6 Zach LaVine 51.3
7 Anthony Edwards 36.1
8 Clint Capela 40.9
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 44.9
10 Zion Williamson 45.6


FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Cedi Osman 30.1
2 Al Horford 38.1
3 Nikola Jokic 57.0
4 Ricky Rubio 33.3
5 Joel Embiid 54.1
6 Giannis Antetokounmpo 58.2
7 Zion Williamson 46.3
8 Jaxson Hayes 23.4
9 Donte DiVincenzo 29.7
10 Anthony Edwards 34.8

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