NBA DFS Analytics: February 18th


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QUICK HITTERS (Feb 18th)

- Today's main slate features 3 games, MIA is the only team on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is TOR v MIL at 235.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIA v SAC at 227 points.

 Need to Know:

Lowry Questionable: Make sure you keep an eye on Lowry’s status for tonight. Norman Powell (6,400 DK and 5,800 FD) should see increased minutes and usage if he sits; his projected plus/minus increases by +2.2 without Lowry in the lineup. Fred VanVleet (7,900 DK and 8,000 FD) would see an increase in his projected plus/minus of +2.0 without Lowry playing and would also see a larger role tonight. The Bucks score the second most points per game in the league, so I expect the Raps to bring some extra offensive firepower tonight - they’ll need to find a way to put up points if Lowry doesn’t play. 

Durant Out, TLC Questionable: A primetime game against the Lakers means the stars will likely come to play. Harden (10,600 DK and 11,000 FD) and Irving (8,900 DK and 9,600 FD) are both solid plays with KD, who commands 31.2% usage, out with a hamstring strain. Our model also likes Deandre Jordan (4,900 DK and 5,400 FD and +4.8 projected plus/minus) who should see a larger role tonight without KD in the lineup; Deandre is probably the only viable matchup for Marc Gasol on the Brooklyn Nets roster.

Holmes, Barnes Out: The Kings frontcourt is looking fairly slim tonight. I like both Whiteside (4,600 DK and 6,000 FD) and Bagley (4,800 DK and 5,200 FD) tonight with Holmes out. But, I must admit, I like Whiteside a lot more, he is ridiculously underpriced on DK... you can read more about him our player spotlight below. With Barnes out of the starting lineup, I think Haliburton (6,000 DK and 5,500 FD) will get the start; we have him a projected plus/minus of +1.5. 

Final Note:

I think ownership % needs to be a big consideration for DFS users tonight. With just 3 games on the slate, there will be some crazy high ownership %'s. I think the Lakers v Brooklyn game gets heavily stacked by a bunch of DFS users, but I also think it has a chance to be a slower paced game, as both teams could come out playing hard defense. I think Miami players are heavily under owned tonight, including Jimmy Butler ($8,800 DK & $9,200 FD), who has been on a tear lately. We still have him projected for nearly 30% ownership, but that's low compared to the other stars on tonight's slate. Take a look at our ownership projections when building your GPP lineup tonight.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Jrue Holiday (O) MIL
  • Kevin Durant (O) BKN
  • Anthony Davis (O) LAL
  • Chimezie Metu (O) SAC
  • Richaun Holmes (O) SAC
  • Harrison Barnes (O) SAC

Questionable Players

  • Kyle Lowry (Q) TOR
  • Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Q) BKN
  • Kyrie Irving (P) BKN
  • Lebron James (P) LAL
  • Goran Dragic (Q) MIA

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

Hassan Whiteside (4,600 DK and 6,000 FD) is an excellent look tonight, particularly in cash games. He’s number one on our projected plus/minus list at +11.8 and is coming off a monster game against the Nets where he had 26 points, 16 rebounds and 5(!) blocks in only 24 minutes, and he should see an even larger role tonight without Barnes in the lineup as well as Holmes, who was injured against Brooklyn. Players with the same player profile as Whiteside have been 6.6 dollars cheaper per point scored against Miami compared to the league average. In other words, Miami isn’t great against players like Whiteside. The only downside to Whiteside is that he will likely be owned by a large percentage of DFS players tonight; we project that 62.1% of DK lineups will have Whiteside in them. In a GPP lineup, fading Whiteside could be smart, but he feels like an incredibly strong cash play tonight and would be hard to avoid.

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 James Harden 60.5
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo 59.3
3 LeBron James 57.6
4 Kyrie Irving 46.6
5 Jimmy Butler 46.2
6 De'Aaron Fox 45.7
7 Pascal Siakam 45.4
8 Bam Adebayo 42.9
9 Kyle Lowry 40.6
10 Fred VanVleet 39.7

 

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 59.1
2 James Harden 56.3
3 LeBron James 54.9
4 Pascal Siakam 46.1
5 Kyrie Irving 45.2
6 De'Aaron Fox 44.7
7 Jimmy Butler 44.1
8 Bam Adebayo 42.9
9 Kyle Lowry 39.3
10 Fred VanVleet 38.8

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