NBA DFS Analytics: February 17th


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QUICK HITTERS (FEB 17th)

- Today's main slate features 10 games, BOS, DEN, MEM, MIN, OKC and POR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is POR v NO at 236.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is NY v ORL at 209.5 points.

 Need to Know:

Smart, Theis, and Kemba out: With Theis out for the second straight game, look for Tristan Thompson (4,100 DK and 4,500 FD) and Robert Williams (3,100 DK and 3,600 FD) to see increased minutes and usage. Tristan will likely get the start, but I like both guys to return value in both DK and FD. With Kemba out on a back to back, I expect Pritchard (4,200 DK and 3,900) to see a larger playmaking role off the bench. I also think Thompson (+5.5 projected plus/minus on DK) could see an increased offensive role without the burden of guarding Jokic on the defensive end like last night.

Oladipo, Gordon, Tucker doubtful: Without the playmaking of Victor and Eric (assuming they sit), I bet John Wall (7,800 DK and 8,500 FD) will see a significantly larger usage rate. However, he should be highly owned, even on a huge slate (we have him projected at ~25% ownership). Instead, especially in your GPP lineups, you could take a flyer on a guy like Sterling Brown (4,400 DK and 4,200 FD) who should see a solid number of minutes (27.0 projected minutes). Monitor these three injuries, as there will be a ton of value in guys like Tate, Nwaba, Brown, and even McLemore if all 3 of Gordon, Oladipo, and Tucker sit.

Batum and George Out, Kawhi Questionable: If Kawhi (9,900 DK and 9,800 FD) plays, he's a really interesting look tonight; he has 29.9 positional minutes missing, so he should see a large workload. Lou Williams (6,900 DK and 6,700 FD) will also see plenty of positional minutes missing (34), so he could continue to see an increase in minutes tonight. I think both Kawhi and Lou will come to play tonight; it’s a big game against the number one seed in the West, and it should be a close one to the finish. I also think Zubac (4,700 DK and 5,100 FD) could be a great play tonight. Utah isn’t great against Zubac’s player profile, probably because Gobert is a shot blocker which opens up the offensive boards for Zubac. 

Two Other Situations To Monitor:

Denver: Be sure to check the status of Morris and Harris, as well as the starting lineup. 

Orlando: Be sure to check the status of Ennis and Fournier, as well as the starting lineup.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Mitchell Robinson (O) NY
  • Cole Anthony (O) ORL
  • Aaron Gordon (O) ORL
  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (O) ATL
  • Christian Wood (O) HOU
  • Will Barton (O) DEN
  • PJ Dozier (O) DEN
  • Paul Millsap (O) DEN
  • Ish Smith (O) WAS
  • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
  • Otto Porter Jr. (O) CHI
  • Blake Griffin (O) DET
  • De'Angelo Russell (O) MIN
  • Jarrett Culver (O) MIN
  • Harry Giles (O) POR
  • CJ McCollum (O) POR
  • Jusuf Nurkic (O) POR
  • James Wiseman (O) GS
  • Avery Bradley (O) MIA
  • Goran Dragic (O) MIA

Questionable Players

  • James Ennis III (Q) ORL
  • Evan Fournier (Q) ORL
  • Joel Embiid (P) PHI
  • PJ Tucker (D) HOU
  • Nikola Jokic (P) DEN
  • Gary Harris (Q) DEN
  • Monte Morris (Q) DEN
  • Doug McDermott (Q) IND
  • Rodney Hood (Q) POR
  • Mike Conley (Q) UTA
  • Kyle Lowry (Q) TOR

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

Today's player spotlight was written by Heating Up DFS. If you haven't checked them out, you need to give their content a look. They provide a daily article with a full breakdown of each game and a key player to look out for, you can find their content here, and today's full article here. Truly a great read if you want to get up to speed on the key player matchups from every game.

Today's Play (As found in today's article from Heating Up DFS):

Anthony Edwards ($6,000 DK & FD)

Hopefully we aren't one day behind on this play, because Edwards absolutely killed it last night. He put up 51 DK points against the Lakers who are typically solid defensively and he had Lebron on him for a portion of the game. He should see Justin Holiday for a good portion of this game which isn't the best matchup for him. However, the Pacers have had the 19th SG/SF salary adjusted DvP so nothing crazy. Even though it is a back to back, he is a young player that will see big run regardless. His usage without Russell has been something else as well. With Towns going up against a top notch C defender in Myles Turner, that leaves Edwards with plenty of usage to put up another great performance. I also can't get away from the fact that he has taken 20+ shots in two of the last three. That type of production is hard to come by at this price range.

 

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected +- (Value Plays)

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Isaiah Roby 29.6
2 Robert Williams 24.6
3 Saddiq Bey 34.7
4 Anthony Edwards 37.0
5 Zeke Nnaji 24.5
6 Anfernee Simons 26.8
7 Ja Morant 43.1
8 Moritz Wagner 24.8
9 Ben Simmons 51.8
10 Tristan Thompson 25.8

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Robert Williams 26.6
2 Isaiah Roby 30.5
3 Kelly Olynyk 28.5
4 Zeke Nnaji 24.5
5 Ja Morant 40.6
6 Anthony Edwards 35.1
7 Damian Lillard 52.4
8 Saddiq Bey 33.8
9 Moritz Wagner 26.7
10 Tyus Jones 25.7

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