NBA DFS Analytics: February 16th

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- Today's main slate features 6 games, BKN is the only team on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v TOR at 236 points. The game with the lowest over/under is  DEN v BOS at 221 points.

Need to Know:

Kyrie Irving Out: With Kyrie and KD out, Harden ($10,800 DK & $11,000 FD) will be the most owned player on the slate tonight. He's an obvious look for cash lineups coming off a monster 29-13-14 game. Even in GPP's he will be hard to fade given his huge potential. I don't mind excluding him (and probably will) in a lineup or two just in case, but it's hard to justify leaving him our of your lineups. Another interesting look from this game could be Landry Shamet ($3,400 DK & $3,900 FD) who was great last night (13-3-3) and should see ~30 minutes tonight. 

Theis, Smart Out: Theis being out is the real important news here, as Smart has been out for a while now. With Theis sitting, Robert Williams ($3,100 DK & $3,800 FD) should see added minutes and be able to return value, especially on his DK price tag. I also like Tristan Thompson ($3,900 DK & $4,700 FD), especially if he starts, where he becomes an extremely strong play on DK at such a low price. Monitor the Celtics starting lineup tonight and adjust accordingly. 

Millsap, Barton, Harris, Dozier Out, Morris Questionable: There's a lot to work through in regards to the Nuggets/Celtics injury news tonight, so fortunately the game tips off at 7pm. In the last game, (with Barton, Harris, and Dozier out), Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray played great against a tough Lakers team. I don't mind Jokic at all tonight as one of your stars and wouldn't hate taking a flier on Murray in a GPP. However, the real value will be found in the Nuggets role players tonight. Zeke Nnaji, ($3,100 DK & $3,800 FD) played 21 minutes and scored 16 points last game with Millsap healthy. Given that Millsap is out tonight, not only do I think Nnaji could push the 30 minute mark, but I think he has a chance to return value by halftime (assuming he starts in Millsap's place). Again, be sure to check out the Nuggets starting lineup before the game. If Morris is ruled out, the two starters not named Jokic, Murray, or Porter Jr. should be strong considerations for your lineup.

Anthony Davis Out Until All-Star Break: After AD went down last game, I noticed a couple of things. Obviously, his teammates, (most notably Lebron and Kuzma) saw their usage go way up. Secondarily, the Lakers struggled in the paint. We already talked about Nnaji's 16 points, but Jokic was also able to dominate on the glass and found little resistance inside. Looking to tonight, I think that opens up some space for Karl Anthony Towns ($9,300 DK & $9,500 FD) inside. Another look from this game could be Dennis Schroeder ($5,900 DK & $5,700 FD). Although Schroeder's been quiet lately, Minnesota has been awful against PG's this year (26th in salary adjusted DvP to the PG position), and Schroeder should see some added opportunity with AD being out.

Jrue Holiday Out: I wanted to touch on this quickly for 2 reasons. 

1) Bryn Forbes ($3,800 DK & $4,100 FD) played 33 minutes and took 17 shots last game against the Thunder, and is still priced under $4,000 on DK. Finding a guy with a chance at 15 shots under $4,000 is like finding a needle in a haystack, and Forbes' price isn't adjusting fast enough. We currently have him projected for 24.7 DK points, giving him a projected +- of +5.7. 

2) If you saw my Tweet about Giannis, you'll know he's been absolutely dominant in close games this year. The Raptors have been competitive in almost every game (including their previous meeting with the Bucks, where Giannis went for 24-18-9). I think Giannis is a really interesting look as your star tonight, especially with Jrue sidelined. 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Jarrett Culver (O) MIN
  • De'Angelo Russell (O) MIN
  • De'Anthony Melton (O) MEM
  • Desmond Bane (O) MEM
  • Shai Gilgeous Alexander (O) OKC
  • George Hill (O) OKC
  • Theo Maledon (O) OKC
  • CJ McCollum (O) POR
  • Jusuf Nurkic (O) POR
  • Rodney Hood (O) POR

Questionable Players

  • Alex Caruso (P) LAL
  • LeBron James (P) LAL
  • OG Anunoby (D) TOR

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 James Harden 58.7
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo 58.6
3 Nikola Jokic 58.6
4 LeBron James 55.6
5 Damian Lillard 53.7
6 Jayson Tatum 45.0
7 Jonas Valanciunas 44.9
8 Devin Booker 44.4
9 Fred VanVleet 44.3
10 Karl-Anthony Towns 44.0


FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 58.0
2 Nikola Jokic 55.1
3 James Harden 54.8
4 LeBron James 52.5
5 Damian Lillard 51.4
6 Pascal Siakam 44.6
7 Jayson Tatum 44.2
8 Zion Williamson 44.0
9 Fred VanVleet 43.8
10 Brandon Ingram 42.9

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