NBA DFS Analytics: February 15th


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To download today's lineup optimizer and datasheet in Excel, click here.

To access today's datasheet without Excel: Click here.

Note: Updated 4:45pm to include Kawhi and Beverley Injuries.

Updated 5:56pm to include Eric Gordon Injury

PREVIEW: 



- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here

- To watch the most recent video from our new How to Build Your OWN DFS Model series, click here.

QUICK HITTERS (FEB 15TH)

- Today's main slate features 7 games,  LAC, CLE, WAS, and SAC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v SAC at 243 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIA v LAC at 216.5 points.

 Need to Know:

Kawhi, George, Beverley Out: Well, looks like just about everyone will own Lou Williams tonight. I think he's an almost must play in cash games, and even in GPP's it'll be hard to fade him with how much usage he should see. Terrance Mann ($3,800 DK & FD) should also see close to 30 minutes and return value at such a cheap price tag. Finally, with 3 great defenders out, the Clippers vaunted defense should be easier to break down. The Heat stars, particularly Jimmy Butler ($8,200 DK & $8,900 FD), should have strong games.

Durant Out: With KD out tonight, I expect both Harden and Irving to see spikes in usage, but also ownership. Harden especially, who is coming off a ridiculous 19-16-8 line, is an interesting look as your star tonight, with what feels like a really high floor. Bruce Brown ($4,100 DK & $3,900 FD) is still too cheap for the way he's been playing lately, and should continue to see solid minutes with Durant out.

Drummond Out, Looking to Get Traded: With Drummond out for the forseeable future, it looks like the Cavaliers are set on Jarrett Allen as their starting center. Allen is great, and we've already seen what he can do in a secondary role this year. I wouldn't be surprised if Allen is consistently priced in the $8,000-$9,000 range for the rest of the season. In terms of tonight, Allen ($6,900 DK & $6,900 FD) is obviously a really strong play. I didn't mind fading him in GPP's last night, and given that we have him projected at ~42% ownership tonight, I still think that may something to consider if you want to roster other high ownership players.

Embiid, De'Andre Jordan, Draymond Green, Questionable: There is definitely some other important injury news tonight, so be sure to check our Questionable/Out list. That being said, I thought I needed to mention some of these keys guys who's status is still undetermined. Embiid sitting would obviously be huge, and the Jazz aren't as scary a matchup for centers as you might think (22nd in salary adjusted DvP, and only slightly above average to paint bigs). Dwight Howard ($3,600 DK & FD) would immediately become a strong play if Embiid sits (he went for 34.8 DK points in 25 minutes last time Embiid sat). Quickly, Jeff Green ($5,100 DK & $4,700 FD) is still too cheap if Jordan sits, and Eric Paschall ($3,900 DK & FD) would see a bump in usage if Draymong Green were out. Of these three situations, I'm most interested in a potential Embiid/Howard pivot, and will try to keep some room in my lineup for that 9pm game. 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Chandler Hutchinson (O) CHI
  • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
  • Otto Porter Jr. (O) CHI 
  • Victor Oladipo (O) HOU
  • Christian Wood (O) HOU
  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Rajon Rondo (O) ATL
  • Mitchell Robinson (O) NY
  • Shake Milton (O) PHI
  • Mike Conley (O) UTA
  • Kevon Looney (O) GS
  • James Wiseman (O) GS
  • Avery Bradley (O) MIA
  • Goran Dragic (O) MIA
  • Eric Gordon (O) HOU
  • PJ Tucker (O) HOU

Questionable Players

  • Wendell Carter Jr. (Q) CHI
  • Doug McDermott (Q) IND
  •  Garrison Mathews (Q) WAS
  • Marvin Bagley (Q) SAC

 Updated at 3:45pm

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

Tonight's player spotlight is De'Aaron Fox ($8,800 DK & $8,700 FD). I'm high on Fox tonight for a couple of reasons. 

1) The matchup. If you've been playing DFS this year, you know that Brooklyn has been awful at defending just about every position. Player's with Fox's same player profile have been an average of $30.5 cheaper per point against Brooklyn when compared to the league average. That's a big difference. Brooklyn also ranks 28th in pace (meaning they play at the 3rd fastest pace in the league) and the game is expected to be the highest scoring of the night. 

2) Fox is coming off an injury and a 40 point game. Typically, this would be a bad thing, but if you watched the Kings last night, you'd have seen that Fox looked like his usually self, and his relatively low point total was only due to the fact he played 30 minutes. I still think Fox is highly owned (we have him projected for ~20% in GPP's) but not nearly as high as it would typically be in such a good matchup. 

3) Potential. On any given night, Fox could go for a huge game. In fact, at his given salary, we currently have Fox sitting at a potential rating of over 98. With so much potential for a big game, and the likelihood of Fox being under owned, he makes for a really interesting GPP look tonight. 

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 James Harden 57.2
2 Stephen Curry 53.4
3 Joel Embiid 51.3
4 Julius Randle 50.0
5 Domantas Sabonis 49.7
6 De'Aaron Fox 49.1
7 Jimmy Butler 48.9
8 Kyrie Irving 47.5
9 Bradley Beal 47.0
10 Kawhi Leonard 46.6

 

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 James Harden 53.3
2 Stephen Curry 50.0
3 Joel Embiid 49.9
4 Domantas Sabonis 49.5
5 Jimmy Butler 47.6
6 Julius Randle 47.2
7 De'Aaron Fox 47.0
8 Kyrie Irving 46.8
9 Kawhi Leonard 46.5
10 Bradley Beal 45.4

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