NBA DFS Analytics: February 14th 2021


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If you haven't already, check out how ridiculously close our projections were last night.

To download today's lineup optimizer and datasheet. Click here.

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- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here

- To watch the most recent video from our new How to Build Your OWN DFS Model series, click here.

QUICK HITTERS (FEB 14TH)

- Today's main slate features 9 games, PHO is the only team on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is DAL v POR at 236 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v PHO at 216 points.

 Need to Know:

De'Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley Questionable: The Kings play at 10pm, so this is gonna be really tough to manage. That being said, I think it also potentially opens up a huge opportunity. Not many users will be patient enough to keep flexibility in their lineups until the 10pm games, so, assuming no early news comes out, Kings players should see low ownership. If Fox sits, Haliburton ($6,600 DK & $6,100 FD) is a strong play, and Hield ($7,000 DK & &6,700 FD) should get a ton of shots up. If he plays, he's under $9,100 on both sites and has averaged 52.1 DK points per game over his last 5. If Bagley sits, Nemanja Bjelica ($3,600 DK & $5,000 FD) is too cheap on DK and scored 35.3 his last time out. I like the idea of keeping some room in your lineup to manage this situation tonight, especially in a GPP contest.

Gordon, Mason Out, Fournier, Anthony, Ennis II Questionable: The Magic backcourt has been absolutely decimated over the past week. With so many guys questionable and out, Michael Carter-Williams had a huge game on Friday. If Fournier, Anthony, and Ennis sit again, MCW is an incredibly strong play. In fact, I played around with our model a bit and if those 3 guys sit MCW and Terrence Ross become the two top value plays on the slate. This is another situation where it makes sense to keep some flexibility in your lineup tonight. Vucevic is also still under $10,000 on both sites, despite scoring 61.8, 50.3, and 65.8 DK points in his last 3.

SGA, Hill, Maledon Still Out: These guys have been out for so long that DK and FD pricing has adjusted accordingly. I still think Al Horford ($6,900 DK & FD) is a bit too cheap, and his ownership should be down compared to recent nights. Kenrich Williams ($5,400 DK & $5,500 FD) has been outstanding recently, and is looking like a nightly double (triple??) double threat. Which is appealing at such a low price tag.

Barton, Harris Out, Murray Questionable: 36, 37, 39, 27, 36. Those are Barton's minutes in his past 5 games. He's obviously not a player who takes a ton of shots (usage % just 17.9), but his absence is going to open up some big minutes for Nuggets role players. Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900 & $5,800) has been really ineffective this season. But he's put together 2 nice games in a row (38.3 and 26 DK points) and should be in line for increased minutes and usage. If Murray sits, Monte Morris ($4,200 DK & $4,100) is an extremely interesting look, as he has been solid and would see big minutes. Finally, if you need a cheap filler, I don't hate RJ Hampton ($3,400 DK & $4,200) on DraftKings. 

Injury Updates: Gordon Hayward Out, PJ Washington Out, Blake Griffin Out, Andre Drummond Out, Rodney Hood Out. 

NBA DFS Strategy

In this section I will discuss some strategies you can consider when building your DFS lineups.

Tracking Injuries - In any DFS sport, tracking player injuries is pivotal. But it is especially important in NBA DFS. Take last night for example, if you closely watched for Brooklyn's starting lineup, and left some flexibility in your lineup, (which I tweeted about). You would have had the chance to play a starting Bruce Brown Jr., who easily returned value at low ownership. There are 3 things every NBA DFS player should keep an eye on in regards to injury news if they are entering a contest.

1) Check the 1:30 injury report, this will be your first look at which big names may or may not be sitting out (you can also always read about these guys in our newsletter). The 1:30 report will also give you a sense of which key players are questionable and what fantasy implications that may have moving into the night.

2) Monitor last second injury updates. This one is obvious, but you need to check the injury status of key players who are labeled as a game time decision right before tipoff. Even if you don't have them in your lineup, a key player being ruled out (who was previously questionable) could open up opportunities elsewhere. It's also important to think about how questionable tags will effect player ownership. DFS users are typically hesitant to put a questionable player in their lineup, so you can look to take advantage of that in certain situations. 

3) Monitor starting lineups. Generally, this isn't a huge factor. However, in rare cases you may have a situation where the starting lineup is unknown prior to tip off. In these cases, you can oftentimes get huge value out of a player who wasn't expected to start if you find out last minute they will be. 

A good place to start everyday is our need to know and questionable/out lists. These provide you with injury updates for the key players you need to monitor, and also go the extra step of identifying the fantasy implications for the especially important injury news. You can also update player injuries in live time through the 'injury updates!' worksheet in our downloadable lineup optimizer and see our projected point values adjust. 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • De'Angelo Russell (O) MIN
  • Jarrett Culver (O) MIN
  • Killian Hayes (O) DET
  • Cody Martin (O) CHA
  • Caleb Martin (O) CHA
  • LaMarcus Aldridge (O) SA
  • CJ McCollum (O) POR
  • Jusuf Nurkic (O) POR
  • Jrue Holiday (O) MIL
  • Kevin Love (O) CLE
  • Larry Nance Jr. (O) CLE
  • Paul George (O) LAC

Questionable Players

  • OG Anunoby (Q) TOR
  • Mason Plumlee (Q) DET
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker (P) NO
  • Josh Hart (P) NO
  • Gordon Hayward (P) CHA
  • PJ Washington (D) CHA
  • Rodney Hood (Q) POR

Updated as of 3:30pm

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 56.8
2 Nikola Jokic 56.3
3 Luka Doncic 54.6
4 De'Aaron Fox 50.4
5 Nikola Vucevic 49.4
6 Damian Lillard 49.3
7 Karl-Anthony Towns 48.8
8 LeBron James 46.4
9 Kawhi Leonard 46.2
10 Jonas Valanciunas 45.7

 

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 55.9
2 Nikola Jokic 54.4
3 Luka Doncic 51.7
4 De'Aaron Fox 48.8
5 Nikola Vucevic 48.4
6 Damian Lillard 47.8
7 Karl-Anthony Towns 47.6
8 Kawhi Leonard 46.9
9 Pascal Siakam 45.1
10 Zion Williamson 44.1

 

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