NBA DFS Analytics: February 13th, 2021


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- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here

- To watch the most recent video from our new How to Build Your OWN DFS Model series, click here.

QUICK HITTERS (FEB 13TH)

- Today's main slate features 4 games, ATL, NY, and UTA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v GS at 246.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is  NY v HOU at 216 points.

 Need to Know:

DeAndre Jordan Out: On such a small slate, finding a few cheap value plays is hugely important. Jordan's absence certainly looks like it will open the door for someone in Brooklyn (he played 37 minutes last game), but the question is who. I actually had to do some digging for this one, and the only 2 true backup centers Brooklyn has on the roster are Norvel Pelle and Noah Vonleh. Out of those guys, I think Pelle ($3,400 DK & $3500 FD) has a better chance to see substantial minutes than Vonleh. Pelle is a block machine, and makes for an especially interesting play on FanDuel (where you get 3pts per block as opposed to the 2 you get on DK). If you can, look for the starting lineups when they come out. If Pelle or Vonleh are starting, I think they return value tonight. If not, and Brooklyn chooses to go small, Jeff Green ($5,500 DK & $4,500 FD) is ridiculously cheap on FD and should grab some rebounds while pushing 30 minutes. 

Mitchell Robinson Out: After Robinson went down last night, the Knicks went with a mix of Noel and Gibson to replace him. All signs point to Nerlens Noel ($3,900 DK & $4,000 FD) playing big minutes tonight. Noel has been solid in limited minutes this year, averaging close to 1 DK point per minute. He will be highly owned, especially on such a small slate. But if he gets anywhere near the 25 minute mark, which I think he will, I don't see how he doesn't return value on his price tag. We currently have him sitting at a projected +- of +4.7 on DK and +6.3 on FD. 

Oladipo and Wood Out: The Rocket's have been struggling to stay healthy, and as badly as it's been killing them on the court, it's  also been opening up some nice DFS opportunities. Tonight, I think DeMarcus Cousins ($6,500 Dk & $6200 FD) is a really interesting look. We just talked about how the Knicks will be without Mitchell Robinson, who is great defensively, and while Noel is no slouch himself, Cousin's should look to take advantage of that. I also like Eric Gordon ($5,800 DK & $5,600 FD). On a night where the majority of DFS users will stack the BKN v GS game, Gordon should see enough usage to return value on his price tag at a relatively low ownership %. He's also a great scorer and has the potential for a big game on any given night. The Knicks are admittedly a difficult matchup for him, ranking 7th in salary adjusted DvP, but they've just given up back to back big fantasy nights to Jimmy Butler and Russell Westbrook. Not saying Gordon's that good, but the Knicks aren't as unplayable as people make them out to be. 

Game Stacks: The last thing I want to talk about is game stacking. A popular DFS strategy, this is when DFS users build their lineup with a high percentage of players from the same game, banking on the fact that the game will be high scoring. There are two things every DFS player should be aware of regarding these situations. 

1) When is a possible game stack going to occur? Tonight, a very obvious game stack is the BKN v GS game. Not only is it the game projected for the highest point total, but it will also be the most watched game of the night (on a Saturday), and people like to play players they will watch, especially the casual DFS players. 

2) How to play game stacks? Knowing this, you then know that BKN and GS players are likely to be highly owned, in fact, take a look at our current ownership projections for DraftKings.

  Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership (GPP, DK)
RNK Player Proj Own
1 Kevin Durant 46.1%
2 Stephen Curry 44.5%
3 Donovan Mitchell 34.4%
4 John Wall 33.5%
5 Draymond Green 31.7%
6 Kyrie Irving 31.7%
7 Jordan Clarkson 31.6%
8 James Harden 30.8%
9 Nerlens Noel 29.7%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. 27.8%

 

You also know that more likely than not, the reason these guys will be so highly owned is because they are in a good position to have a great game! In a cash lineup, stacking this game makes a lot of sense, you'd play a relatively low risk strategy and as long as you stay up to date with injuries and find some cheap value plays, you should have no problem cashing. However, in a GPP stacking this game is tougher. You'd make it very difficult to have the top scoring lineup owning a bunch of players that other users also own! If you saw my previous newsletter on GPP strategy, I like the strategy of picking the 1-2 guys from the stacked game that you feel most confident about, and then filling out your GPP lineup with lesser owned players. 


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

 Tonight's player spotlight is Rudy Gobert. Gobert ($7,100 DK & $8,600 FD) is criminally underpriced on DraftKings and has been incredibly effective as of late. He is coming off a 3 straight games with over 40 points, and at $7,100 on DK would need just 35.5 points to return value (5X). 

There are 3 reasons I think Gobert is a strong play tonight.

1) Although Miami has been strong against the C position (4th in salary adjusted DvP) they've been much worse against paint bigs. In fact, they rank below average against paint bigs using our player profile DvP metric. Even better for Gobert, Miami ranks 29th in offensive rebounds allowed per game, and Gobert is grabbing 3.7 OREB's a game, good for 6th in the league. 

2) He's too cheap. This is simple enough, but Gobert is just way too cheap tonight. $7,100 for him on DK is a joke. His $8,600 FD price tag is more reasonable, but I still think he could be an interesting look, as I expect him to see low ownership on Fanduel.

3) Lack of solid floor options at centerThe center position is thin tonight, especially on Fanduel without the dual position eligibility. For me, especially in a cash game, Gobert is far and away the center whose floor I have the most confidence in. Bam has been good lately, but the Jazz are an incredibly tough matchup, Cousins I like but his floor feels low, and the other guys all feel quite risky either due to low minute concerns or poor past performances.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (O) ATL
  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Rajon Rondo (O) ATL
  • James Wiseman (O) GS
  • Kevon Looney (O) GS
  • Avery Bradley (O) MIA
  • Goran Dragic (O) MIA
  • Mike Conley (O) UTA

Questionable Players

  • PJ Tucker (Q) HOU
  • John Wall (Q) HOU
  • Cam Reddish (P) ATL

Updated as of 3:30 pm

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Stephen Curry 58.4
2 Kevin Durant 50.9
3 James Harden 49.4
4 Domantas Sabonis 49.1
5 Trae Young 47.9
6 Jimmy Butler 47.3
7 Kyrie Irving 45.7
8 Julius Randle 45.4
9 Donovan Mitchell 43.5
10 John Wall 40.7

 

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Stephen Curry 54.9
2 Kevin Durant 47.7
3 Domantas Sabonis 47.7
4 Jimmy Butler 45.7
5 James Harden 45.4
6 Trae Young 45.1
7 Kyrie Irving 44.8
8 Julius Randle 41.9
9 Donovan Mitchell 41.1
10 John Wall 40.4

 

 

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