NBA DFS Analytics: February 12th, 2021

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Today we have added a live injury updating feature to the optimizer as well as additional matchup statistics to the datasheet.

PREVIEW: Click here to download.


- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here.


- Today's main slate features 11 games, BOS, DET, ORL, and POR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v UTA at 234.5    points. The game with the lowest over/under is  LAL v MEM at 219.5 points.

 Need to Know:

Bradley Beal Resting. This is pretty big news, Beal commands the highest usage of any player on todays slate (and in the league) at 36.5%. His absence will open the door for a ton of shots and touches for the remaining Wizards. Westbrook ($9,000 DK & $8700 FD) is the obvious look, and is really tough to pass on. However, he will likely command ridiculously high ownership, even in an 11 game slate. As of this writing, we have him projected to be owned at 30.8%. In a GPP I don't hate any of the Wizards role players, but I think Deni Avdija could step into 30ish minutes, where I like him to return value on his $3,900 price tag on both sites.

SGA, Hill, Maledon Out. Unfortuantely, the Thunder are in basically the same position as 2 nights ago. If you read our last newsletter, then you'll already know how I think you should play this. And at least 2 of Diallo, Horford, Bazley, Dort or Williams need to be strong considerations for your cash lineup. (As a side note, I really cannot wrap my head around why Horford's price tag isn't increasing faster, he has 57.3, 28.8, and 56.5 in his last 3). If you're looking for a real flier, Darius Miller is going for the minimum on both sites and should see close to 20 minutes tonight if Roby is ruled out.

Bane, Clark, Melton out for Grizzles. Bane being ruled out is of unique interest to me because, unlike Beal and the Thunder players, he isn't a well known guy. That being said, he has played upwards of 25 minutes in 5 of the last 6 for the Grizzles and his absence will certainly open the door for both Grayson Allen ($4100 DK & $4400 FD) and Tyus Jones ($4300 DK & $4600 FD) to get more looks. 

Mason, Gordon Out, Fournier, Anthony Questionable. This game starts at 10, so it could potentially open up a nice opportunity to get some value out of an Orlando guard depending on how the injury situation shakes out. If either Fournier or Anthony are healthy enough to play, they should play high minutes at low ownership. On the other hand, if they get ruled out, Ennis III, Bacon, and Ross are all good players to target.  



In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

 Tonight's player spotlight is Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,300 on DK & $10,100 on FD). Towns is a really interesting look tonight for a couple of reasons. First off, he's coming off a bit of a dud in his first game back, and second, by nature, players who play the C position have lower ownership than other players, we have him projected to be owned in just 7.1 % of GPP contests.

3 things to note here:

1) His last game was against a really tough clippers defense, the Clippers rank 1st in salary adjusted DvP to the center position. 

2) Town's salary dropped quite a bit, especially on DraftKings, where he is now just $9,300. Town's still played 31 minutes against the Clippers and he looked healthy, we also all know he has huge fantasy potential from earlier in the season, where he went for over 50 in 3 out of the 4 games he played. 

3) The final thing to note is Town's matchup tonight. Charlotte have been strong against Paint Bigs, but really poor against big's who stretch the court. Players with Town's same player profile have been an average of $32.5 cheaper when playing Charlotte compared to the league average (read more about how we use player profiles here)

Of course, there is the potential for Town's to have a dud, and his floor feels low, but he is worthy of consideration in GPP lineups tonight.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Jarret Culver (O) MIN
  • De'Angelo Russell (O) MIN
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (O) ATL
  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Rajon Rondo (O) ATL
  • LaMarcus Aldridge (O) SA
  • Marcus Smart (O) BOS
  • Kemba Walker (O) BOS
  • Robert Williams (O) BOS
  • Mason Plumlee (O) DET
  • Killian Hayes (O) DET
  • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
  • Wendell Carter Jr. (O) CHI
  • Paul George (O) LAC
  • Jrue Holiday (O) MIL
  • Mike Conley (O) UTA
  • PJ Dozier (O) DEN
  • Gary Harris (O) DEN
  • Kevin Love (O) CLE
  • Larry Nance Jr. (O) CLE

Questionable Players

  • DeVonte Graham (Q) CHA
  • Josh Jackson (Q) DET
  • Alec Caruso (Q) LAL
  • Anthony Davis (Q) LAL
  • LeBron James (P) LAL

Updated as of 3:30pm

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Points

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 57.5
2 Nikola Jokic 56.9
3 LeBron James 52.6
4 Karl-Anthony Towns 52.4
5 Trae Young 50.0
6 Luka Doncic 49.9
7 Damian Lillard 49.3
8 De'Aaron Fox 48.6
9 Russell Westbrook 47.6
10 Nikola Vucevic 47.1


FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 56.1
2 Nikola Jokic 55.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns 51.0
4 LeBron James 48.5
5 Damian Lillard 47.1
6 Trae Young 47.1
7 Luka Doncic 46.9
8 Zion Williamson 46.3
9 De'Aaron Fox 46.0
10 Nikola Vucevic 45.9



Thanks for reading! The best way to know about every newsletter is to follow us on Twitter here, where we will post every time we release the days newsletter. (Also, if you follow me you'll see I tweeted about Isaiah Stewart after Plumlee was ruled out last night, so you might get some injury updates as well)

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See you tomorrow ~2 hours before tipoff!